A number of blogs have apparently picked up on a particular thought in the recent article by Jon Utley, “What To Do With Cheney?” That perhaps Roveâ€™s sudden resignation is because he has been unable to stop the Cheney gang from a coming attack on Iran, and Rove foresees the consequent political disaster for the Republican party. The threat of $5 per gallon gasoline has generated lots of discussion.
Harper’s Website had a discussion of the threat and a Heritage Foundation study of the consequences, done in 2006. The Heritage Study makes it all sound easy, stating that the U.S. Navy would quickly reopen the Straits of Hormuz, that the political pressure to allow drilling in Anwr in Alaska would then become irresistible. Its worst case scenario is a decline of $161 billion in one quarterâ€™s gross national product and a decline of â€œover 1 million jobsâ€ in the following year.
Heritage makes no allowance for the war getting out of hand, nor for any destruction of Arabian Gulf oil ports or refining and storage facilities. Most of all it make no mention even for the effect upon other nations, as if the U.S. just lived in a self contained world. In fact Japan, South Korea, and Chinaâ€™s economies would have tremendous shortages of fuel with consequent effect to world trade and prosperity. Heritage Foundation was a major promoter of starting the last war and is a big supporter of it even now.
For a serious study of the consequences of war with Iran we refer you to CATOâ€™s “The Costs and Benefits of Preventative War vs. Deterrence” by Justin Logan.