McCain Victory, Part 2

In my previous post I argued that since (1) the only Dem candidates who’ve been able to win the presidency in the past 4 decades have been white, Protestant, southern males; (2) the country strongly prefers a Democrat for Pres in ’08; and (3) most Americans regret invading Iraq, the Dems should have selected an antiwar, white, Southern, Protestant male candidate — & should keep this in mind next time. I received some good replies to the 1st post, so in this post I’ll continue the discussion & reply to some of the replies.

In writing the 1st post I stumbled on “Why the GOP’s Southern Strategy Ended” (Part I & Part II) by (the late) Jim Chapin, which is full of interesting, relevant info. (The strategy ended because it was a complete success.) Chapin wrote: “[I]n the entire post-Civil War period, the only candidates who required Southern electoral votes to overcome a loss in the rest of the country were Grover Cleveland (twice), Woodrow Wilson (once), Jimmy Carter in 1976 and George W. Bush” [in 2000 & 2004]. This surprised me. Even though the Dixie Rules rule applies to past 40 years, it’s only been in the past 2 elections that Dixie reversed a GOP loss in the rest of America. This suggests a few things to me. First, as has been widely noted, Dixie’s electoral power has risen with the population shift to the Sun Belt. Second, the Democrats’ selection of a white, Southern, Protestant candidate signals to swing states outside of Dixie that the candidate is less beholden to the party’s constituency of Yankees, cosmopolitans, ethnic minorities and union workers. Third, Dixie’s new power has freaked out Democrats, thereby pushing them to select a demographically anti-Dixie candidate — nonwhite, non-Southern, semi-foreign, Muslim dad, secular upbringing, liberal, etc.

On to the replies:

Eugene Costa wrote:

“Actually it much simpler than that and boils down to Ohio, which was stolen twice. That will be harder to do this year.”

Reply to reply:

McCain is very popular in New Hampshire. If he wins New Hampshire, loses Ohio, and gets all of the other states Bush won last time, McCain will win.

SubHuman wrote:

“Clinton and Obama are pro-corporate, pro-AIPAC and pro-WAR candidates, Kucinich, Gravel and Dr. Paul were the ONLY anti-WAR and pro-America candidates.”

Reply to reply:

I believe that war & empire hurt most corporations’ profits — though they certainly enrich politically connected parties — so it’s not necessary to be anti-corporate to be antiwar, and it’s entirely possible to be anti-corporate and pro-war. I haven’t seen anything that suggests that Obama is pro-war. (I don’t buy the Obama wants to attack Pakistan meme.) But, sure, if Clinton is the Dem’s candidate, any anti-imperialists who don’t believe in voting for the lesser evil should register a protest vote. My view is that the Dems are complicit but less responsible for Iraq, Guantanamo, torture, etc., so all things being equal, the Repubs should be voted out as punishment.

Eugene Costa wrote:

“Obama … already has a built-in Southern Strategy, as both the Republicans and their bellicose and born-again Southrons know very well.

“Thus the fantasy and distraction of the above mapping and prediction as any longer pertinent …

“Kucinich apparently sent an early feeler to Paul about an independent run. Paul rejected it.

“Kucinich is now more important out of the race than in.”

Reply to reply:

I don’t know what the Obama Southern strategy is. If it’s to rally the African-American minority, seems to me that’s a losing strategy, as the majority is likely to win any racially charged contest.

Kucinich = Nader. In 2000 I thought there wasn’t much difference between Gore & Bush, & I now think I was wrong.

Dmaak112 wrote:

“McCain will win. In spite of what we Americans like to believe about ourselves, we love war.”

Reply to reply:

Polls show that Americans regret invading Iraq, dislike the president that ordered the invasion, & want to replace his political party. I don’t know why people would be lying to pollsters about this — & the Dem takeover of Congress supports it.

Nuttyone wrote:

“Those of us who support Obama because we dislike Clinton will vote for him but will stay away, or even worse, vote for McCain if Hillary is the other choice. Polls or not, I’m telling you what the people on the street are feeling, not the party-faithful, but keep pushing Hillary if Democrats want to lose again. “

Reply to reply:

I’m not pushing Hillary. I said that the Dems should have selected an antiwar, Southern, male, white, Protestant (being a military vet wouldn’t hurt either). Hillary is a semi-Southern, female, more-or-less pro-war candidate.

Thanks for your politeness — we’re showing the blogosphere how it’s done.

 

Author: Sam Koritz

I like cheese.

14 thoughts on “McCain Victory, Part 2”

  1. Obama’s Southern Strategy –

    put Huckabee on the ticket. :-)

    more seriously:

    a ) why do you think that the media seems to be ignoring Huckabee (the evangelical vote) as necessary for a Republican ticket?

    b ) McCain appeals to many people who are “frustrated” with the war. Their frustration is that it has been a mess. McCain pledges to be “military” and raises the hopes that everything will be ok in that case. So much of the antiwar sentiment in the country will – esp once it’s a two-way race – find themselves eager to vote for McCain.

  2. I think McCain is the best man for the position of our next persident. He doesnt sugar coat it and i believe he will allow my husband and our military to do the job they have been trained to do. I see him as only a strong willed man who will stick to his guns at all costs and that what we need right now.. someone who wont back down against people that seem to think it needs to be their way or no way.

    1. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately), the country is bankrupt and can no longer continue to borrow billions from China in order to support socialist welfare leeches like you and your husband. I suggest your husband get a real job. One that doesn’t depend on an endless string of strategic foreign policy disasters, bankrupting the country, trashing the currency, using the Constitution as toilet paper, and the total ruination of our country’s reputation in the world.

      Just a helpful suggestion.

    2. What McCain will do with federal debt over $9 trillion dollars? What about Social Security entitlement over $50 trillion dollars? Iraq consumed almost a trillion dollars of our tax money increasing our debt to China and other countries every day compromising national security seriously.

      How many lives and how much of our hard earned money stolen as tax will be wasted if Iran invasion happens as McCain demands? Iran has 3 times more population and territory compared to Iraq. Bush succeded in destabilising Middle East making oil go to $100/barrel and gas to $3/gallon. Will McCain make gas go to $10/gallon invading or bombing Iran?

      Please, check what Ron Paul says. He received donation from military personel more than all other candidades combined. Support our troops, bring them home to their family IMMEDIATELY.

    3. You are right, he “will stick to his GUNS at all costs”. Sheer stubbornness is not what makes a good president specially when it comes at ALL COSTS. That is why he is the worst person for the job.

      Also, “someone who wont back down against people” is the definition of someone who “seems to think it needs to be their way or no way” But I guess you fail to see your contradiction.

      I hope your husband RETURNS safely to you. He doesn’t need to die for Iraq.

    4. I pray that the thinking of militarywife, so called, is that of a distinct minority of the voters. ‘She’ scares me.

      1. Unfortunately, militarywife is part of the 33-plus percent of Amoricons (if a variety of opinion polls are to be believed) who continue to brainlessly support the neocon agenda, despite the obvious, unmitigated disaster it has wrought, particularly for people like her husband who have been co-opted as footstooges in the war debacle and who bear the consequences of it in terms of death and permanent disability. Militarywife and her brain brethren constitute a very toxic one-third of the nation’s potential voters who could ensure that the current regime’s policies are perpetuated not only for another four years, but for decades or generations to come.

  3. McCain is a total joke with his 100 years in Iraq; his bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran; his open borders amnesty policy; his anger problem; etc.

    What does everyone think about Bob Barr running on an LP-CP fusion ticket? The dems would like him since he is a white, Protestant, anti-war, southern male. The indies would like him since he’s libertarian. The repubs would like him because he’s conservative. Looks like a winner to me!

  4. WHERE DUTY CALLS

    Nader Gravel & Paul Kucinich

    Awake from your slumber
    4 Wise Men march with the people
    Washington DC

    Whistleblowers
    Honesty compassion intelligence guts
    Not carrots sticks coercive diplomacy

    Divided we fall
    Mike Gravel
    Dennis Kucinich
    Ron Paul
    Ralph Nader
    No bribery blackmail extortion

    Rage against the machine
    Democracy rising democracy now
    Suffer not

  5. I'm leaning towards voting for Obama in the general election. It will be the first time in my life that I will vote for a Democratic candidate and I've been voting since 1968. I'm sick and tired of the Republicans and their wars and I think McCain is the biggest warmonger to come along in a long time.

  6. McCain’s presidential election prospects are welded to the surge in Iraq.

    This summer, I predict that events will call attention to the fact that the surge is more effective as a domestic propaganda ploy than it ever was at locking Iraq down for US interests.

    McCain will then look like the worst possible candidate, stuck pimping a failure of an invasion while our economy tanks from the dead end debt run up by the Bush league’s (and what’s left of the GOP’s) adventures in half-assed imperialism built on deceit.

  7. Is this logical?

    Not to worry, some ginned-up “terrorist” threat will befall US before the general election and it will be used to fan the fires of war anew. All that I can say is: AFN (absolutely freaking nutz) That is the state of present day America… BTW, The new $50 bill is actually the old $10.

  8. No matter which way you look at it this garden gnome is too old
    and I repeat too old. At the momement you American people should be looking for a 2 time president and I repeat again this man is too old

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