Well it would certainly be a disaster if something like this happened again. But I don’t think it would trigger WW3.

This would require the US Military to actually attack the Russian Military.

“The Russians already believe that the Georgian offensive that killed its peacekeepers in South Ossetia was a U.S. (Neocon) engineered proxy war for control of political and resource interests in the region. Our interpretation is not as important as their interpretation.”

Well Georgia certainly had US Government help and “instructors”(ever hear of MPRI? they are US Government certified Mercenaries), who were in a rush to leave Georgia on the first plane to JFK by August 11. So “their” interpretation is correct. There is also the fact that the CIA was monitoring Russia’s Military at the time, more than likely passing along information to the Georgian Military. The plan was to catch the Russians with their pants down, like the Croatian Operation against its Serb minorities(which were ethnically cleansed with military force in 1995, organized by the US Military). Some sources I have read say those planning the attack(same MPRI people) wanted to take advantage of several key situations: 1. Most of Russia’s Political leaders were in Beijing for the Olympics. 2. There was/is a major conflict going on in the Russian Ministry of Defense revolving around new nonsensical “reforms” which are/were being pushed by a former Furniture Salesman now acting as Defense Minister, much of the Command Structure had been disbanded(for insubordination) leaving the Military without leadership right before the war in August.

As a result the Russian response early on was very chaotic, because there was no plan in place and no one was issuing any orders from above. The Russian Field commanders got together what they could and sent it to Georgia to support the Peacekeepers already there.

“As for Iran, I don’t believe that they would be stupid enough to use any nuclear weapons even if they managed to access them.”

Neither do I, but I think the Iranians might want some kind of deterrent against Israeli attacks, and it is unlikely they will be able to create it themselves any time soon.

“I sadly believe we are more likely to see a nuclear attack in the form of nuclear terrorism.”

Well let’s hope it does not come to this.

All you hear now is about rocket attacks by Hamas.Forgotten in all of this is the root cause of this.The concpiracy that the Plaestnians were driven from their homeland and it was given to another people.

But taht what Israel exactly wants.Isreal trive on presenting and benefits from presenting itself as this little ,poor victim that is incircled by millions of angry fantics bent on its destruction.It was Israel who intited every war in contrary to the pupluar image.

http://www.users.cloud9.net/~recross/israel-watch/MythsRealities.html

So far since 2000(when Putin came to power) there have been few major progressive developments in the Russian Military. From my point of view a perfect analogy for the current Russian situation is a “scarecrow”, the Russian Government essentially wants to present a “strong” image to scare away NATO from its neighborhood. That is why they fly Soviet built (Bear) bombers around NATO countries and send Soviet built(Kirov class Cruiser) Warships on voyages to the Caribbean, the key here is they are still operating Soviet built equipment, potent but aging.

“the frequency of combined Russian-Chinese military exercises”

Which happen at most once a year.

“U.S. strategic agreements with Georgia, promises of eventual NATO membership for Georgia”

For the Russians Ukraine is more important. Georgia is the Laos of Eastern Europe(in importance, I don’t mean anything negative toward Laotians), it has virtually no usefulness to the Russians other than it is a conduit of Caspian Oil shipments. Ukraine on the other hand is a former Soviet Industrial hub. Many key former Soviet industries like Rocket and Aircraft design and manufacture are located in this country, they can’t afford to lose it. Plus to them Ukraine is where their nation was born. It would be like Pennsylvania became an independent country and a Military ally of China.

“If any conflict were to develop between the U.S./Israel and Russia as a result of ‘neocon’ foreign policy”

I don’t see this as a possibility. Perhaps through 3rd parties(proxies).

“the SCO agreement is likely to see a Chinese intervention. It is important to recognize that Iran is a strategic partner of both the Russians and Chinese and also an associate member of the SCO”

Perhaps the Chinese might intervene, but I doubt the Russians would.

The only possibility is that the Israeli Government(Livni, Barak, Olmert, and company) could try to expand the conflict into a Regional War(like in 2006), or if there was some kind of Coup in Egypt or Saudi Arabia. And then there would be the threat of Israel using its Nuclear Arsenal.

Another ‘Kursk’ incident (see the documentary ‘Kursk – A submarine in troubled waters’ if you can, its online) is all that is needed to trigger a truly disastrous event.

The Russians already believe that the Georgian offensive that killed its peacekeepers in South Ossetia was a U.S. (Neocon) engineered proxy war for control of political and resource interests in the region. Our interpretation is not as important as their interpretation. We are certainly living in interesting times.

As for Iran, I don’t believe that they would be stupid enough to use any nuclear weapons even if they managed to access them. I sadly believe we are more likely to see a nuclear attack in the form of nuclear terrorism. Another reason we should be building bridges and not pouring fuel on the fire.

Lets hope that some form of sanity prevails. All the best.

If “something” were to happen in Pakistan and their Nuclear Arsenal was to “mysteriously” disappear I think most of the World would have something to worry about. Many of the guys in the Pakistani ISI likely still know their “old” contacts. And Iran probably wouldn’t mind having a few Pakistani made small Nuclear Warheads around, the kind that could fit on a Shahab-3 Medium Range Ballistic Missile.

Your comments on an Iranian response are accurate. The other danger is that an attack on Iran might fuel more extremist action. Scott Ritter, former U.N. weapons inspector has speculated that an attack against Iran may end in nuclear terrorism. I think his words were, “pick an American city, any American city, because we’re going to loose one”. Given the alleged level of activity in the nuclear black market, this may not be as unlikely as it first seems.

All the best for the New Year. A C

Policies of the Bush administration including U.S. arms shipments to Taiwan, U.S. strategic agreements with Georgia, promises of eventual NATO membership for Georgia and threats of an attack against Iran are all inflaming tensions. If any conflict were to develop between the U.S./Israel and Russia as a result of ‘neocon’ foreign policy, the SCO agreement is likely to see a Chinese intervention. It is important to recognize that Iran is a strategic partner of both the Russians and Chinese and also an associate member of the SCO.

And they can’t just bomb Iran and not expect retaliation of any kind. Iran is not Gaza or Lebanon. The Iranians will see it as a violation of their sovereignty, and Hezbollah may begin showering Rockets on Israel again in retaliation. I don’t think the US Military will remain neutral in such a conflict and more than likely neither does Iran. Their immediate response would be to hit US Navy forces in the Persian Gulf, for this reason I believe the first attacks on Iran in a “hypothetical” war against Iran would be on their Navy and Coastal defense bases.

I am not supporting such a war, and I personally don’t want such a war to happen, but if it were to happen I am just pointing out how it could happen based on wars that have happened in the past and how Militaries handle such wars today.