Occupation by Bad Example

Struggling to impose order and democratic rule in Afghanistan, the US has now moved on to the equally great challenge of keeping "liberated" Iraq in one piece. This formidable task involves ensuring that various ethnic, political and religious groups (Kurds and Arabs, Sunnis and Shiites, etc.) refrain from intimidation, internecine warfare and revenge killings. Stabilizing Iraq also means setting up a democratic government with the full participation of the people, and establishing respect for the rule of law – in addition to rebuilding a shattered infrastructure and torpid economy.

As for the last of these challenges, US officials are optimistic that Iraq's oil riches will pick up wherever international generosity leaves off – and that the country will therefore avoid the kind of perpetual economic gloom that still haunts another of Empire's unsuccessful experiments – Kosovo.

Iraq and Kosovo: Some Startling Similarities

Reading over the past week's headlines, it seems clear that the US has failed to learn from experience. In June 1999, NATO "liberated" the Serbian province of Kosovo from the itinerant "dictator," Slobodan Milosevic. Within hours, the Albanian majority began a bloody campaign of retribution against Kosovo's Serbian minority – killing, expelling, looting, and taking over property by force. In newly "liberated" Kurdish areas of Iraq, the same phenomenon seems to be occurring. Indeed, just change the proper names, and a recent dispatch from northern Iraq (17 April) could just as well have been written four years ago in Kosovo:

"…on Tuesday, however, Kurds from the neighboring village of Indijah came to Muntasir and told the Arabs they had 24 hours to leave. Across the fronts of buildings in the hamlet, Kurds scrawled the initials of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), one of two militia-backed political parties in the north. The names of Kurdish peasants were written on three houses that they evidently planned to occupy.

"We are defenseless," said Hamad Oweid, an Arab shepherd and father of five daughters. "Many families left to hide in the mountains. We don't know what else to do."

Three Cheers for the Docile Protectorate!

That said, it is comforting to know that Kosovo's viceroy, Michael Steiner, has cheerfully proposed applying the Kosovo model of occupation to Iraq. Speaking to a local TV station recently, Steiner declared:

"…an integrated system, with a clear hierarchical structure and shared competencies has been installed in Kosovo. In order to complete their mission successfully, the (Iraq) peace missions should abide by two principles: receive a clear mandate and enforce order and democracy right from the beginning. In order to achieve that, it is necessary to set up a sort of protectorate."

"Order and democracy" – yes, indeed! Could Mr. Steiner be referring to the rampant destruction of Serbian Orthodox churches (over 110), which occurred after NATO had arrived, and which still continues? Or perhaps he means the almost total ethnic cleansing of not only Serbs, but also Roma, Turks and Macedonian Muslims, and the abysmal standard of living for the few who remain? Or perhaps Steiner is referring to the chronic mafia activity and inter-Albanian vendetta killings that continue to plague the province and block its transition to stability?

Even though Steiner suggests employing "ten times the number" of foreign overseers as in Kosovo (16,000), the quantity is not the problem; the question of willpower is. If the US shows in Iraq the same lackluster, incompetent response as it did after Kosovo's "liberation," there is little hope for the newly vulnerable minorities of Iraq. And, as resurgent Albanian secessionism in the Balkans has shown, this tends to cause headaches further on down the line for America and its allies.

Indeed, the Empire proceeds at its peril – and that of the Iraqi people – if it chooses to reprise the ineptitude and non-accountability of its Balkan experiments.

A Mission of Quiet Despair

The West would be deluding itself if it really believed that Kosovo's future is bright. However, behind the self-congratulatory and obligatory lip service, quiet despair is growing amongst imperial officials high and low.

The NATO war against Serbia in 1999 succeeded only in destroying a lot of civilian infrastructure, killing innocent people, and causing a real refugee crisis where none had previously existed. There was neither an exit strategy nor a real plan for what would happen after the fighting ended. Although war looks exciting for TV viewers back home, reconstruction and keeping the peace are much less sexy. The US failed to confront the uncomfortable reality – namely, that Kosovo cannot survive outside of a larger state.

As a provincial protectorate, Kosovo is an onerous burden on the West. Yet as an independent country, it would have neither credibility nor economical sustainability. Returning to Serbia is unthinkable; yet being swallowed up by Albania is a deeply unappetizing thought for the rowdy province's neighbors – as well as to many living in Albania itself.

Incredibly, this same scenario and lack of vision have been replicated in Iraq – where the failure to plan ahead has resulted in massive civil and religious unrest and the needless looting and destruction of antiquities – and that after little more than a week of "freedom." While the powerful US military can no doubt stifle much of the unrest in the near future, simmering hostilities and hatred of Americans will keep Iraq dangerous for a long time to come – and no closer to stability. This for the simple reason that as with Kosovo, change was not inaugurated from within, but from violent outside intervention. Gunboat diplomacy is doomed to fail – especially when the would-be colonizers have no appreciation of the subtleties at work in local political and social relationships. Only too late are they starting to realize that the Western principles of democracy and self-determination may find some pretty, er, creative expression in the new Iraq.

Kosovo's Illusory Economy

In an incisive recent article, Dr. Sam Vaknin makes the case for the essentially unsustainable economic state of Kosovo. As with the protectorate's political structure, its economy is a simulation, an illusion prolonged by international goodwill and voluntary remittances from the Albanian diaspora. Employment now stands at 56 percent; of those employed, it is predicted that up to 20 percent will lose their jobs in the near future, as the international organizations for which they work reduce their presence. This means that unemployment could soar to over 70 percent within the next year.

According to Dr. Vaknin, the political vagueness between UNMIK and the Kosovo Parliament has created a kind of vacuum, conducive to legal shortcomings and external manipulation. Kosovo has no law on foreign investment, and mortgage financing is absent. Another legal problem is that of land ownership (this has caused much confusion since 1999, when Albanians forcibly took over Serb houses and property). Privatization of utilities is a 'distant dream;' the creation of the Kosovo Trust Agency has done little precisely because of the ambiguity between UNMIK's powers and those of the Kosovar Albanians. Lacking a legal framework for collateral and bankruptcy, banks keep most of their liabilities abroad, at the same time offering high interest rates and disadvantageous repayment terms.

$5 Billion Later, Still Shabby

In Iraq, American companies are now swarming to win lucrative reconstruction contracts – effectively squeezing out local competition. The precedent, however, had long been set in the Balkans. Tenders for Kosovo's complex infrastructure jobs have usually been taken by foreign competitors. Of 861 socially owned firms, only 330 are viable. Avers Dr. Vaknin:

"…Kosovo has no private sector to speak of – though it has registered 50,000 small and medium-sized enterprises. Of 2,774 members of the Kosovo Chamber of Commerce – 1,667 were fly-by-night construction outfits."

To these "outfits" we can add the multitude of gas stations (like Chinese restaurants in San Francisco, far more than necessary) that serve as fronts for mafia activity.

Kosovo's "government" has a meager revenue base, and its trade deficit almost equals its gross domestic product. In order to maintain the simulation of economic viability, Kosovo relies on the remittances (up to $1.5 million per year) of its expatriate workers and mafiosi.

As Dr. Vaknin reminds, $5 billion has been "poured" since 1999 into the money sieve that is Kosovo. Despite this huge amount of aid, infrastructure remains dilapidated, electricity is unpredictable, and roads and railways are poor. The situation is not helped by the periodic destruction of bridges by Albanian extremists.

The moral of this story is twofold. First of all, Kosovo is proof that even the most generous of reconstruction packages will always be prone to mismanagement, corruption and failure. Second – and more provocative – is the fact that, while humans survive on food, extreme nationalism thrives on its deprivation. As we will now see, recent events have shown that the Kosovo secessionist movement is bubbling happily along. When unemployment reaches 70 percent, and it becomes clear that the Americans (and no one else) will voluntarily invest in the place, how long will it take for the cauldron to boil over for real?

Tensions Rise Between UNMIK and the Albanians

The fundamental issue of the day, however, is that of self-determination and self-governance versus the restrictions imposed by UN Resolution 1244, by which Kosovo is administered. As the US recklessly rushes into forestalling this problem with the Kurds and Sh'ites, it seems to have forgotten the morass that is Kosovo. After four years in suspended animation, the Albanians are tired of playing at governance. Their virtual parliament must run every important political and economic decision past the colonial administration. The wishes of the two often collide. Not surprisingly, the Albanians – not historically known for their patience – yearn to take over for real.

They are even starting to talk like it. Kosovo "president" Ibrahim Rugova recently declared that, "Kosovo and Albania are looking forward to integrate into the European Union and the North-Atlantic Alliance (NATO)." As to whether they would be doing this together or separately, he did not say. And Tanjug (on April Fool's Day, no less) gave details of "prime minister" Bajram Rexhepi's meeting with Agim Ceku – leader of the Kosovo Protection Corps (KPC) and an accomplished war criminal – to beef up the KPC's role. For the press, Rexhepi stated:

"…we will observe (UN Security Council) Resolution 1244 and step by step, in the transfer of power (of UNMIK to provisional Kosovo institutions) the KPC will get greater powers, and it is our wish that it should become the future army of Kosovo."

The very idea of a "national army" for Kosovo has sent shockwaves through the Balkans, and provoked calls for a self-defensive army from Kosovo's Serbs. Albanian parliamentarians are growing increasingly exasperated with the colonial administration, and especially Steiner's habitual rejection of their amateurish attempts at legislating. In his "strongest letter so far," Steiner stated last week that he would not approve four new laws (on higher education, international trade, telecommunication and management of public finances). He ordered the Albanians to amend the bills and make them more 1244-friendly before the April 30^th deadline. If the deadline is not met, declared Steiner, "UNMIK will amend the laws itself and proclaim their effectiveness."

Feeling themselves thus to be chronically thwarted and babysat, Kosovo Albanians are growing more and more frustrated with their overlords. Parliamentary chairman Nexhat Daci has threatened that future draft laws may not be sent for approval if Steiner keeps rejecting them. On 11 April, Daci told local media that, "Kosovo no longer needs such a high number of international bureaucrats, which has become an obstacle to its democratic and economic development and is becoming increasingly costly to both the UN and the province." Daci's political advisor, Ramush Tahiri, went even further, declaring that, "…the international administration lacks either knowledge or willingness to implement its mission."

It's hard to imagine that the residents of Iraq – far more culturally and geographically separate from the West than the Albanians – will prove more malleable. Major headaches lie ahead for any Empire-imposed government in Iraq.

Militant Extremism on the Rise

Worst of all, after four years of KFOR policing, Kosovo is still held hostage by mysterious groups of armed thugs who threaten Serbs and Albanians alike. A variety of competing extremist groups – motivated separately by money, ideology, and religion – are now operating in Kosovo. Chief of all is the "Albanian National Army" (ANA, or in Albanian, the AKSH). In the past months, these extremists have planted bombs in south Serbia, manned armed checkpoints on Kosovo roads, killed Serbian police, and bombed a courthouse in Macedonia, among others. They are probably also responsible for the murder of Polish NATO soldiers in Macedonia, the Christmas day school bombing in Kumanovo, shooting up police stations in Pristina, and the recent shooting deaths of two material witnesses in a trial of former KLA soldiers in Kosovo.

According to Western security officials in Pristina, the ANA is motivated by the grand dream of "Greater Albania," a plan by which Albania would swallow up the whole of Kosovo, digesting bits of Montenegro, Serbia, Macedonia and Greece in the process. Backers of this plan claim that the violent construction of such an anachronistic 19^th Century nation-state harmonizes perfectly well with Western values and American ideals. Whatever they're smoking, I would sure like a hit.

Uniting the Motherland – from London

Citing an ANA source, another Albanian newspaper (Shqipëria e Bashkuar) recently reported that the paramilitaries were linked to the "Front for National Unification of Albanians" (FBSHK), a diaspora organization centered in London, which seeks "…the reunion of ethnic Albanian territories into a unique national Albanian state in the Balkans, as well as removing more than a century old colonial occupation of Serbs, Slav-Macedonians and Greeks."

Although extremism is bliss, insofar as statements like these are concerned, when it comes down to actions the ANA is more PR-conscious. This explains the group's attempt to distance itself from the militants who recently clashed with KFOR troops near a central Kosovo village. Claiming that the real perpetrators are criminals trying to create "…a bad image for the AKSH and FBSHK before the international and Albanian population," the source made the sincere – but presumptuous – offer that "…AKSH special forces will assist UNMIK police in the fight to paralyze these mafia groups with masks and the crimes they commit."

Strange as that might sound, it is de facto not too far from the reality. After all, the Kosovo Protection Corps was formed for KLA veteran soldiers and commanders (i.e., Agim Ceku). Also, it has been proven recently that active KPC members are also moonlighting as AKSH guerrillas.

When the ANA took responsibility for bombing a railway bridge in northern Kosovo, on the Serbian border (12 April), it also came out that two of its hapless "special forces" soldiers were killed in the explosion. UNMIK chief Michael Steiner reiterated his condemnation of the ANA as a terrorist organization. As it turned out, the dead men were associated, not only with the KPC, but also with every Albanian paramilitary formation that has fought in Kosovo, Macedonia and south Serbia. In fact, one of the men (Islam Berisha), had last month laid a wreath on the grave of a local hero, in the name of the AKSH, "following a decision by the Front for the National Unification of Albanians." The ramifications of having the "legitimate" authorities make a gesture in the name of a terrorist organization were sufficiently embarrassing that UNMIK is thinking of firing Berisha's former KPC commander. As the US has discovered in Iraq, uniforms are donned pretty arbitrarily in Kosovo.

A New Campaign for the North of Kosovo?

Most disturbing of all is the fact that the Albanians are taking the war to a new front – northern, Serb-inhabited Kosovo. This is open confirmation of a desire to ethnically cleanse the territory completely. From the above-cited article we get a pretty good sense of the irredentists' intentions:

"…Mitrovica is Albanian land and we will not allow it to remain occupied by the Serbs. ANA has decided to cut all links of the Albanian lands with Belgrade… (the) time has come when the international factor should correct the mistake of giving the northern part of Kosovo Mitrovica to the Serbian authorities. It is (also) time for the 2,500 hectares of ethnic Albanian land, which the genocide authorities of Serbia (have) given to the artificial power of Macedonia, to be returned to the Albanians. The relevant international factor should hear the reasonable voice that the Albanians in their ethnical hearths (sic) are decisive and ready to make sacrifice in order to unite the Albanians into one unique nation on the Balkans."

A recent Serbian report (link missing) attests to an even more aggressive, unprecedented campaign against one of the Serbs' only safe-havens. Mitrovica's river divides it on ethnic lines. Serbs avoid the southern part of the city; Albanians, it appears, are fearless. Apparently, uniformed ANA members with heavy weapons and armored jeeps have been seen rolling through north Mitrovica in recent days.

The report goes on to state specific locations in south Mitrovica from where the ANA operates, as well as details about KFOR weapon seizures there. It is further claimed that the ANA in Mitrovica is cooperating now with mujahedin of the famous "Abu Bekir Sadik" group.

Kosovo, Macedonia and the Rise of Anti-Americanism

This, I think, is as good a place to leave off as any. Whenever the subject of Islamic terrorists in the Balkans comes up, the US and its apologists have a habit of humming loudly while blocking their ears. It is incontestable that before September 11^th, the US aided or abetted the arrival and employment of foreign jihadis in Bosnia, Kosovo, Albania and Macedonia. Yet it is of course too embarrassing to admit this. However, as the disastrous Neocon-crafted plan to destroy Islamic terrorism unfolds in the Middle East, the Empire would be well advised to heed what former allies in the Balkans are saying.

Kosovo's political and economic problems are, respectively, intractable and insurmountable. Although these problems were perpetuated and exacerbated by NATO's 1999 intervention, they always existed and probably always will. However, the increasing aggression in the Middle East has also meant a concomitant rise in anti-Americanism in the Balkans – notably, among former best buddies, the Albanians of Kosovo and Macedonia. Religious leaders are getting a far more sympathetic ear now that Albanians are beginning to identify with Iraqis on the basis of their shared religion.

Numerous incidents have been recorded in the past two months that show serious security concern on the part of the US in the Balkans. American soldiers at Kosovo's Camp Bondsteel were put under "lockdown" when the war began. The embassy in Skopje closed down for all non-essential purposes. In some cafés in Pristina, Americans were forbidden. Owners feared their presence could incite attacks from Islamic terrorists, local or foreign.

This phenomenon has been noticed in Macedonia, separated from Kosovo only by low mountains. During the war, an Albanian pastry chef laughed at me upon hearing news of American combat deaths: "…ha ha ha! Big problems for Mr. Bush!" he gloated. And an Albanian taxi driver in the village of Cerkezi growled, "Bush is worse than Milosevic or Hitler."

The cab driver, whose radio was tuned to the wailing of Arabic prayers, voiced support for a local Albanian imam who allegedly recruited mujahedin during the 2001 uprising. Until now, such leaders would have commanded support only from a few. After Iraq, anything's possible.

Whatever Happened to Kosovo, Anyway?