Not long after Baghdad fell to American troops,
it was already apparent that
the United States was part of the problem, not part of the solution, in
Iraq; and that, as long as the American military occupied the country, matters
would just get worse. Every passing month has only predictably confirmed that
reality. There's no reason to believe that the next year of our military presence
will be any less destabilizing than the last.
Of course, as is now notoriously well known, the Bush administration helped
such predictions along their un-merry course in a particularly heavy-handed
way. At least three crucial aspects of Bush policy created a fatal brew, ensuring
that the complex situation in Iraq in 2003 would devolve in quick-time into
today's catastrophic tinderbox: First, there was the emphasis the president
and his top officials put on the use of force as a primary response to global
problems. (On this matter, they were fundamentalists.) Such an approach (when
combined with the stripped-down, lean and mean U.S. military-lite Donald Rumsfeld
was creating) acted as a recruiting agent for the insurgency that soon followed.
Second, there was the deep-seated urge of Bush's nearest and dearest to plunder
the world, which meant, in the case of Iraq, those no-bid, cost-plus contracts
to crony corporations which led to an Iraqi "reconstruction" that, in its essential
corruption, deconstructed the country. Finally, let's not forget their deepest
urge of all, which was to occupy a key country smack in the middle of the oil
heartlands of our planet and not depart. This guaranteed, as certainly
as night follows day, both the insurgency that arose in Sunni areas and the
angry feelings of Shi'ites toward their own "liberation."
It is now a commonplace in Washington to point out that the Bush administration
had no exit strategy from Iraq, but to this day few bother to say the obvious:
It had no exit strategy because its top officials never planned on or expected
to leave that country. That this was so is easy enough to chart via one of the
least well-covered subjects of the period, the Pentagon's determination to build
huge, and hugely impressive, permanent military bases (called for a time "enduring
camps") in that country. As we know from a
single New York Times front-page piece published just after Baghdad
fell, the Pentagon was already planning four such permanent bases then. Among
the
hundred or so bases, encampments, and outposts of every size constructed
since, they have never stopped building and upgrading a small number of them
for endless future occupancy, which tells you all you need to know about their
present plans to "withdraw" or "draw down" our Iraqi presence.
On all the points above, matters simply continue down their hideous path.
The
bases are still being built; the looting of Iraq, which never ended, has
now extended in an open-armed way to the Iraqis under our tutelage. Just this
week, Patrick Cockburn of the
British Independent reported that the Iraqi defense ministry is missing
more than $1 billion, certainly one of the larger thefts in history, contracted
out in a familiarly no-bid way for arms purchases from Poland and Pakistan.
These arms were, of course, for the new Iraqi military on which the administration
is counting so heavily, and the money is now simply gone. As for a policy of
force, the U.S. military, which has just conducted an assault on the largely
Turkmen city of Tal Afar, causing, it seems, great damage, is threatening to
repeat such operations (modeled in a modest way on the destruction of Fallujah
last November) in urban areas elsewhere. ("'You
will see the same thing [as at Tal Afar] down along the Euphrates Valley
to push back out and restore Iraqi control to the area around Qaim,' Gen. George
W. Casey Jr., the top American commander in Iraq, said in an interview in Baghdad.")
This is, of course, the American version of the infamous Roman Carthaginian
solution, meant to bring the Sunni resistance to an intimidated halt. (Don't
count on that.) And in the process, of course, more Americans died, 12
of them in recent days, sending the total of American dead over the 1,900
levee.
The results can be observed from Baghdad to Basra
in the Shi'ite south where the Brits are now in some trouble. Juan Cole
at his Informed Comment Web site (the single must-visit Iraq stop on the Internet)
reported recently on
the security situation ("sinking like the Titanic" in his phrase) in Baghdad
where whole neighborhoods seem to have fallen into the hands of insurgents or
Zarqawi followers. We're not talking here about Tal Afar, or Mosul, but about
the Iraqi capital itself which "our" government inside the Green Zone simply
does not control. What more do we need to know about how desperate the situation
is? Should you want a sense of what that situation feels like up close and personal,
check out Baghdad
Burning by Riverbend, the remarkable young woman blogger who has just come
back online after a two-month hiatus, a "vacation" daily lacking in electricity,
water, and the other amenities of life in a modern city.
But let's look on the bright side. A year ago, withdrawal was a subject that
simply couldn't be brought up in a serious way in the mainstream American world.
Now, it's a word everyone is bandying about. In the wake of Katrina, according
to a recent New
York Times/CBS poll, "52 percent of people interviewed called for an
immediate withdrawal, even if that means abandoning President Bush's goal of
restoring stability to that country." (A Gallup poll reported that "66
percent of respondents favored the immediate withdrawal of some or all of
the U.S. troops in Iraq, a 10 percentage point jump in two weeks.") In this,
they are far ahead of the politicians they've elected, whether Democrats or
Republicans.
Below, Michael Schwartz makes the case, both simple and sophisticated, for
withdrawing quickly from Iraq, but more than that for stopping thinking of ourselves
as part of the solution a bulwark, for instance, against an onrushing civil
war rather than part of the problem. With the antiwar demonstration in Washington
DC this weekend, this is a moment to consider just what kinds of pressure for
what kinds of solutions we want to bring to bear on this stumbling, if still
utterly recalcitrant, administration. Tom
Why Immediate Withdrawal Makes Sense
by Michael Schwartz
That we are in a military quagmire in Iraq has
become a fact of life among Americans of all political persuasions. Though administration
officials still sometimes speak of troop reductions in early 2006, and some
top military men clearly no longer endorse "staying the course," the muted voices
of reason within the military and the State Department still talk in terms of
a three-to-five year drawdown of forces followed by the "sustained presence
of a large American contingent, perhaps 50,000 soldiers," to be housed in the
huge
permanent bases the U.S. is continuing to construct and upgrade in Iraq.
In addition, Gen. John P. Jumper, the Air Force chief of staff, recently told
New
York Times reporter Eric Schmitt that U.S. air power would be flying
combat missions inside Iraq "more of less indefinitely."
Many in the antiwar movement, despite the high-intensity moments generated
by Camp Casey and Cindy
Sheehan's demand that President Bush at least meet with her "before another
mother's son dies in Iraq," also seem increasingly resigned to a long-term
military engagement with Iraq. While most continue to advocate the "immediate
withdrawal" of American troops, such calls are uttered with little sense of
hope. In fact, there appears to be a growing feeling that any form of "immediate"
withdrawal will prove a thoroughly unsatisfactory option, destined only to intensify
the present chaos in Iraq, trigger a civil war, and/or unleash a round of ethnic
violence that could escalate to levels of near-genocidal mass murder. Instead,
ever more
critics of Bush's Iraqi adventure are proposing "phased" withdrawal scenarios
that could keep American troops at the ready for years to prevent the Iraqi
pressure cooker from blowing its top.
Many of these cautious withdrawal scenarios are advocated by staunch opponents
of the war. I am thinking, in particular, of Juan
Cole, the most widely respected antiwar voice, and Robert
Dreyfuss, a thoughtful critic of the war who publishes regularly at the
independent Web site Tompaine.com as well as in the Nation and Mother
Jones. Both have offered forceful warnings against a hasty American withdrawal,
advocating instead that U.S. forces be pulled out in stages and only as the
threat of civil war recedes. Dreyfuss expresses the thinking of many antiwar
activists thusly:
"They worry that if the United States withdraws from Iraq, the result will
be an all-out civil war among three major ethnic and religious blocs. (It's
facile to argue that Iraq is already wracked by civil war; yes, there is widespread
terrorism, a guerrilla war against the U.S. occupation forces, and periodic
clashes between Sunnis and Shi'ites. But it hasn't reached anything like civil
war proportions yet, and it might: Things could get far, far worse.) Maybe it's
too late for the United States to be able to do anything to prevent the outbreak
of such a catastrophic civil conflict. But because there is so much at stake,
it's worth a try."
Cole captures the same logic in a phrase: "All it would take would be for Sunni
Arab guerrillas to assassinate Grand Ayatollah Sistani. And, boom."
And they are right. Black
Wednesday, Sept. 14, with its 12 Baghdad car bombs, killing at least 160
Iraqis, and wounding upward of 600, offered a flash of civil-war-level violence.
Ordinarily, Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence accounts, on average, for fewer than 100
civilian deaths a week. This was true even during the car-bomb offensive just
after the January elections. If a Black Wednesday occurred every week, the death
toll from such violence might reach 15,000 per year, and we could start talking
about a real civil war. So things could indeed get much worse.
But where Dreyfuss and Cole are mistaken is in concluding that U.S. forces
can be part of an effort "to prevent the outbreak of such a catastrophic civil
conflict." Despite the plausible logic of this argument, the U.S. presence doesn't
deter, but contributes to, a thickening civil-war-like atmosphere in Iraq. It
is always a dicey matter to project the present into the future, though that
never stopped anybody from doing so. The future, by definition, is unknown and
so open to the unexpected. Nonetheless, it is far more reasonable, based on
what we now know, to assume that if the U.S. were to leave Iraq quickly, the
level of violence would be reduced, possibly drastically, not heightened. Here
are the four key reasons:
- The U.S. military is already killing more civilian Iraqis than would likely
die in any threatened civil war;
- The U.S. presence is actually aggravating terrorist (Iraqi-on-Iraqi) violence,
not suppressing it;
- Much of the current terrorist violence would be likely to subside if the
U.S. left;
- The longer the U.S. stays, the more likely that scenarios involving an authentic
civil war will prove accurate.
American Violence in Iraq
In listing the problems faced by Iraqis ("widespread terrorism, a guerrilla
war against the U.S. occupation forces, and periodic clashes between Sunnis
and Shi'ites"), Dreyfuss is succumbing to the reportage of the mainstream press,
which rarely mentions the immense toll that American forces are taking every
day inside Iraq.
In fact, the best estimate is that the occupation has been killing about 40,000
Iraqi civilians each year. These figures were first published a year ago in
a path-breaking, yet largely neglected, study published in the British medical
journal the Lancet
by a mixed team of researchers from Johns Hopkins University and Iraqi universities;
but careful vetting of war reports indicates that something close to these rates
seems to have been maintained ever since. That helps explain why even the distinctly
limited numbers collected by U.S. and Iraqi official sources (when released
at all) almost always report that American (or other) occupation forces account
for at least two-thirds of all civilian deaths in military actions, with
an unknown proportion of the remainder due to the actions of the Iraqi government,
not the resistance.
There are four main ways American forces in Iraq accomplish such
mayhem.
First, there are the hundreds of checkpoints around Baghdad and
in other contested cities, sites of numerous violent incidents. Because of
the danger created by the threat of suicide bombers, those guarding the checkpoints
are ordered to fire at suspicious activity. The following account of the death
of Reuters reporter Waleed Khaled, offered by Major-General
Rick Lynch based on an official U.S. Army investigation, makes clear why
even the most savvy Iraqi is risking his or her life approaching a checkpoint:
"Lynch said soldiers reacted when they saw the car traveling 'forward at
a high rate of speed. That particular car looked like cars that we have seen
in the past used as suicide bombs. It wasn't a new car, it was an older model
car.
And there were two local nationals inside the car. Our soldiers took
appropriate measures. We mourn the loss of life of all humans.
But our soldiers
are trained to respond in those situations. Put yourself in the place of the
soldiers, knowing that the insurgents, who have been known to use suicide bombs,
suicide car bombs, suicide vests, to attack innocent civilians, will always
have an attack and then respond to that attack when the first responders come
forward. So our soldiers took appropriate action on that particular case.'"
With some 600 checkpoints in Baghdad alone, and as many as 100 cars approaching
each checkpoint during a non-curfew daylight hour, there are upwards of 250,000
chances each day for an Iraqi driver to fail to slow down soon enough, or, distracted,
fail to see the checkpoint in time, or do something to make jumpy soldiers jump.
If only one out of 40,000 drivers makes this mistake that still would produce
perhaps six lethal incidents a day in which case about 2,000 Iraqis would
meet Waleed Khaled's fate each year, although without the benefit of news coverage
and a U.S. Army investigation, however perfunctory. (Note that, at this point,
we have just about no way of knowing in any of the death situations discussed
here and below how many Iraqis are dying, so these are the crudest of figures.)
Second, American troops are constantly patrolling contested areas in Iraqi
cities under instructions to use "overwhelming force" in firefights with actual
or suspected resistance fighters. If they encounter sustained resistance, the
rules of engagement call for demolishing buildings occupied by snipers, and
treating all inhabitants of such buildings as the enemy. Among the several hundred
patrols or more each day around Iraq, it appears that about one in 10 result
in lethal firefights. Even if fewer than half of these firefights produce a
single collateral civilian death, this tiny percentage would yield perhaps 15
deaths on an average day, or close to 5,000 civilian deaths a year.
A third staple of the occupation is entering houses in search of suspected
insurgents, either because they have been identified by informants, or as part
of house-to-house searches after IED or other guerrilla attacks. U.S. statistics
indicate that no fewer than 75 percent of all entered houses do not contain
an insurgent, but the Army rules of engagement require that soldiers enter without
knocking and by crashing through doors in order to retain the element of surprise,
and thus prevent either an ambush or an escape by suspects. Lethal force is
used at the first sign of resistance or attempted escape to preempt attacks
with weapons that suspected insurgents might have hidden nearby. (The Army argues
that, while more humane treatment might create less anger among the tens of
thousands of non-resistant families whose homes are invaded, such restraint
would also expose the soldiers to many more casualties from the occasional resistance
fighter. Military
philosophy in this and other settings is to protect the lives of American
soldiers "even if those methods do not always win the hearts and minds of the
Iraqi populace.")
With several hundred such missions undertaken each day, and such
patrols entering as many as a dozen houses on a patrol, American troops enter
something like 2,000 Iraqi homes on an ordinary day. If only one of every
one hundred entries results in violence, and far less than half end in a dead
civilian, these home invasions can still account for 10 or so deaths per day,
or another 3,500 per year.
Fourth and finally, we come to American air power. When American
patrols, large or small, encounter violent resistance, their rules of engagement
call for the use of overwhelming fire power to eliminate the enemy. Where
their immediate response fails to destroy the enemy, an air assault is often
ordered, with either gunships or bombers. Air assaults are also ordered against
suspected insurgent "safe houses."
Although they are rarely reported, such air assaults are the most terrifying
and ferocious forms of American violence. Virtually all of these strikes occur
in highly populated areas, sometimes destroying whole houses, or even whole
groups of houses, and (where the inhabitants haven't fled) they sometimes kill
whole families in the process. The
New York Times recently reported such an attack in the border city
of Husaybah, which "destroyed three houses in an area that has experienced intense
fighting." Unlike most such news items, this one also contained an Iraqi Interior
Ministry report of casualties. Based on local hospital reports, the Ministry
claimed that the air strikes "had killed more than 40 civilians, mostly members
of an extended family who had sought shelter from the bombings." (American officials,
as is their general practice, said they "knew of no civilian casualties.")
American
officials do concede that they average about "50 close air support and armed
reconnaissance missions every day." These occur at all of the familiar urban
hotspots: Baghdad, Fallujah, Mosul, Tal Afar, Ramadi, Samarra, as well as numerous
smaller towns. If only one in five of these missions produces civilian casualties,
and if the average death toll is only four instead of 40, then 15,000 Iraqi
civilians die every year from U.S. air attacks.
The depressing total of these very rough calculations is over 25,000 civilian
deaths each year, more than five times the number caused by car bombs and other
Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence. (And remember, we're not even figuring in major American
military campaigns against the insurgency.) To add to the levels of mayhem,
keep in mind that, at any given moment, the U.S. military keeps perhaps another
12,000-15,000 Iraqis locked in its prisons, holding areas and interrogation
centers. Numbers like this, or even lower versions of the same, explain why
in a country with a population of only 25 million, so many Iraqis see the Americans
as the main source of the daily violence they endure, and why 60 percent regularly
tell even American-sponsored pollsters that they want an American withdrawal
immediately, if not sooner. This also explains why the primary condition for
a cease-fire set by the Association
of Muslim Scholars (AMS, the political arm of the Sunni resistance) was
an American "troop pullout from most urban areas and an end to military checkpoints
and raids." AMS leader Isam al-Rawi explained:
"The Americans and British must leave all residential areas.
This is very
sensitive for our feelings. When they retreat to military bases outside the
major cities, the Iraqis will no longer be meeting military tanks and trucks
in the streets and highways, and they will no longer be afraid their homes will
be invaded at night."
Iraqi-on-Iraqi Violence
The prospect of a civil war is, of course, horrendous, but the ongoing
American violence is massive enough that it would take several Bloody Wednesdays
every week to match it. This, of course, is a possibility, but a more reasonable
guess would be that, in a trade-off between the end of U.S. violence and an
escalation in the civil war, the result would actually be a decline
in civilian casualties in Iraq.
But a quick U.S. withdrawal would be less likely to produce a civil
war than leaving American troops in place as a barrier against such a development.
The killing and imprisonment policies of the occupation itself are the main
generating and sustaining force for the rising levels of Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence.
The sooner the occupation ends, the sooner Iraqi civil violence is likely
to begin to subside.
To grasp this point, it is necessary to understand that there are
broadly speaking two
tendencies within the Sunni resistance against the U.S. occupation. While
they share the goal of expelling the Americans, their strategies and tactics
are fundamentally different. One tendency, which many Iraqis designate the
"nationalist resistance," seeks in the short run to expel the Americans from
their local communities by attacking American patrols and checkpoints with
roadside explosives and hit-and-run attacks. An operation is a success when
it ties down American troops and therefore prevents them from manning checkpoints,
marching through neighborhoods, or conducting house-to-house searches. While
their attacks often kill innocent bystanders, they do not usually purposely
target civilians, and often condemn those who do, calling them terrorists
and outlaws.
The other tendency, designated the "jihadists" by many Iraqis, fights
to weaken the resolve of the Americans and of Iraqis who, by their definition,
help the occupation. For the jihadists, an operation is a success when it
inflicts either a huge toll in casualties or scores a propaganda victory against
the occupation or its supporters. Their tactics are designed to intimidate
and demoralize their opposition. They therefore try to mount spectacular attacks
on U.S. forces, the Iraqi military and police, Iraqi government officials,
and also Iraqi civilians they feel are aiding the Americans, attempting to
intimidate them away from voting in elections, participating in local government,
or joining the police force or the new Iraqi military.
Beyond this immediate terrorist purpose, the leadership of the jihadists, most
notably Abu
Musab al-Zarqawi, seeks sooner or later to create a mega-state among all
Sunni Arabs in the Middle East. Zarqawi and others of his persuasion believe
that Shi'ite Muslims are the main barrier to such a state and that, in the long
run, they must be defeated. They therefore focus their terrorist attacks on
the Shia, who, they believe, support the American-installed Iraqi government
(rather than on the Kurds, who support that government far more avidly than
any Shia group). In this way, the jihadist leadership hopes simultaneously to
undermine Shia support for the American-sponsored government and to weaken the
Shia in what they consider to be a larger, longer-term confrontation.
Numerically, the jihadists represent a tiny minority of resistance fighters
in Iraq (certainly no more than 10 percent). The vast majority (probably well
over 90 percent) of the 70 or so attacks each day are conducted by the nationalist
resistance. But the jihadists are responsible for the high-profile car bombings
and the spectacular attacks against Shia mosques and other "soft targets." These
account for the vast majority of all the civilian casualties inflicted by the
resistance.
Given this situation, how might a speedy American withdrawal affect the levels
of Iraqi-generated violence? Most obviously, it would eliminate the presently
predominant form of Iraqi violence the 65 or so guerrilla attacks against
American forces every day (though many guerrilla units might redirect their
attention to the Iraqi army, insofar as it chose to conduct American-type patrols
in disputed neighborhoods). And it would also obviously eliminate the jihadist
attacks against American troops and bases.
But those fearful of civil war worry that the American absence would
remove the main deterrent to terrorist attacks and simply free-up jihadist
resources from anti-American operations to unleash further mayhem. The full
jihadist effort could then be concentrated on attacking the Shia.
Violence After an American Departure
What this assumption ignores, however, is a simple (though not obvious)
fact: The terrorist offensive against the Shia is largely a consequence
of American brutality in Iraq. Despite Abu Musab al Zarqawi's oft repeated
desire to launch a holy war against the Shia, his success in doing so is directly
linked to a continuing U.S. presence. His primary appeal in Iraq, after all,
rests on the claim that the occupation is "being aided by their allies from
Shia." Moreover, because, he
claims, "the Shia sect has always spearheaded any war against Islam and
Muslims throughout history," he insists that they can never be brought into
a movement to oppose the occupation and therefore have to be treated like
the enemy. It is this appeal that, in Sunni areas, has allowed him to recruit
supporters for his anti-Shia campaign.
University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, author of Dying
to Win, the definitive book on suicide terrorism, spoke for virtually
all terrorism experts
when he made this very point to the American
Conservative magazine, asserting that every suicide bombing campaign
"is driven by the presence of foreign forces on the territory that the terrorists
view as their homeland. The [American ] operation in Iraq has stimulated suicide
terrorism and has given suicide terrorism a new lease on life."
Thus, while Zarqawi is seeking a holy war against the Shia, the
real question as Pape puts it is whether "anybody listens to him." In
other words, his success depends on his ability to recruit new martyrs (inside
and outside Iraq) to undertake suicide missions. This recruitment, in turn,
depends upon two factors: the level of mayhem the occupation creates, which
generates the anger that creates his volunteers; and the credibility of his
claims that the Shia are allies of the Americans.
On both accounts, the military occupation of the country, by its very presence
and its actions, continually pours more gasoline on an already burning fire,
and cannot help but continue to do so as long as it attempts to pacify the resistance.
After all, the daily mayhem in Baghdad and other cities, and the spectacular
American assaults on cities like Fallujah and Tal Afar, are broadcast across
Iraq and the entire Muslim world (even if they are often largely ignored in
the American media). These increase support for both the nationalist guerrillas
and the jihadist terrorists.
In addition, under the strain of an exhausted army and a fractured budget,
the Bush administration is seeking to "Iraqify" the occupation by replacing
American troops with Iraqis. In 2004, after Sunni police and military units
melted under fire or defected to the guerrillas, the U.S. began relying more
heavily on Shia recruits (as well as Kurdish militiamen, or peshmerga) in their
battles with the Sunni resistance. The brutality of the American military plan
for pacifying the country, now being enacted by ever more Shia and Kurdish soldiers,
has convinced increasing numbers of Sunnis that Zarqawi's claims about the Shia
are all too correct, and so has allowed him to recruit increasing numbers of
willing martyrs, both in Iraq and in neighboring countries.
Just before Bloody Wednesday, at Tal Afar, Shia
(as well as peshmerga) soldiers were given frontline responsibility for lethal
house-to-house searches, spearheading the wholesale destruction of individual
homes, many with residents still inside, and whole neighborhoods. It was no
surprise, therefore, when, a few days later, Zarqawi
declared that Bloody Wednesday was the beginning of the "battle to avenge the
Sunni people of Tal Afar," and also the beginning of a "full-scale war on Shiites
around Iraq, without mercy." Here again, American action exacerbated rather
than suppressed internal Iraqi friction.
This constant and escalating provocation only swells the reservoir
of willing martyrs and increases the plausibility of Zarqawi's claim that
the sole route to "liberation" involves direct attacks on Shia citizens.
On the other hand, history indicates that once the provocation of
foreign troops is removed, the reservoir tends to quickly drain. Terrorism
expert Robert Pape reports that, in recent history, it is almost unknown for
suicide bombings to continue after the withdrawal of the occupying power:
"Many people worry that once a large number of suicide terrorists have acted
that it is impossible to wind it down. The history of the last 20 years, however,
shows the opposite. Once the occupying forces withdraw from the homeland territory
of the terrorists, they often stop and often on a dime."
American withdrawal is therefore the cornerstone of any strategy
that wants to maximize the hope of avoiding civil war. It would, at one and
the same moment, remove the major source of Iraqi civilian deaths and remove
the primary flash point that leads to the car bombings. It would certainly
mean as well the withdrawal of Shia and Kurdish troops from Sunni cities
the key to Zarqawi's ability to convince (some) Sunnis that the Shia are willing
pawns of the occupation and so their eternal enemies.
The clock is ticking, however. With each new American attack, more Sunnis are
convinced that their hope for liberation lies with Zarqawi's strategy. And with
each new terrorist attack, Shia anger already at a high level, given the degrading
nature of the American occupation and two years of American-style "reconstruction"
is likely to become ever more focused on the Sunni community that appears
to be harboring the terrorists. Recently there have been growing signs of violent
Shia retaliation. If the terrorist attacks continue unabated, then increasing
numbers of Shia may adopt an attitude complementary to Zarqawi's blaming the
entire Sunni community for the terrorist attacks. If this occurs, Zarqawi will
have succeeded in his personal goal of "dragging them into the arena of sectarian
war," and a raging civil war may truly develop.
Zarqawi's plan will be in danger of collapsing, however, if the
U.S. withdraws.
American withdrawal would undoubtedly leave a riven, impoverished
Iraq, awash in a sea of weaponry, with problems galore, and numerous possibilities
for future violence. The either/or of this situation may not be pretty, but
on a grim landscape, a single reality stands out clearly: Not only is the
American presence the main source of civilian casualties, it is also the primary
contributor to the threat of civil war in Iraq. The longer we wait to withdraw,
the worse the situation is likely to get for the U.S. and for the Iraqis.
Michael Schwartz, professor of sociology at the State University of New
York at Stony Brook, has written extensively on popular protest and insurgency,
and on American business and government dynamics. His work on Iraq has appeared
on the internet at numerous sites, including TomDispatch, Asia Times, MotherJones.com,
and ZNet; and in print at Contexts, Against the Current, and Z
Magazine. His books include Radical Politics and Social Structure,
The Power Structure of American Business (with Beth Mintz), and Social
Policy and the Conservative Agenda (edited, with Clarence Lo). His e-mail
address is Ms42@optonline.net@optonline.net.
Copyright 2005 Michael Schwartz