Is Kirkuk About to Explode?

In an interview with al-Arabia television, Iraq’s Washington-backed president said that demanding a referendum for the right of self-determination in the Kurdish North will be regarded as an act of national treason of the Kurds against Iraq and would forcibly be suppressed. Last week, demonstrations were held in several cities in Iraqi Kurdistan organized by the Referendum Movement, which calls for an independent Kurdistan in Iraq with Kirkuk as its capital.

Ghazi al-Yawar told the Arab network: "It is a national betrayal by the Kurds. There is a freedom of opinion in Iraq but this does not mean that some people would try to speak about disintegrating Iraq. This is not something we could accept and we will counter this with all our power."

Al-Yawar’s comments came just two days after British Foreign Minister Jack Straw’s visit to Arbil, the capital of the Kurdish autonomous zone in Northern Iraq. Many observers speculated that Straw traveled to pressure Kurdish leaders to give ground on the oil rich-city of Kirkuk, which Kurds want included in their domain. But the Kurdish Prime Minister, Nechivan Barzani threw cold water on such plans, telling reporters: "Our policy and stance is clear, we refuse to compromise on any grounds regarding Kirkuk."

"The people themselves on the ground – they watch al-Jazeera and they see that the rights of Palestinians are being discussed at the United Nations," explains Kani Xulam, director of the American Kurdish Information Network in Washington. "When somebody like Colin Powell says there should be a two-state solution, that translates into Kurds asking, ‘Why can’t there be a two-state solution to the Arabs and Kurds in Iraq, too?’"

Another factor pushing Kurds to think more about independence, says Xulam, is the increasingly dangerous nature of Iraq outside the Kurdish North. "After the four Americans were brutally murdered and desecrated in Fallujah, five Kurds were desecrated and burnt. Then, just about a month ago, three Kurds were beheaded. During April, when the bombing of Fallujah was going on, people were leaving Friday prayers in Baghdad chanting, ‘Death to [Kurdish leader Masoud] Barzani! Death to [Kurdish leader Jalal] Talabani!’"

As a result, Kurds in Iraq today find themselves in a tough spot. Because they’ve supported the U.S. occupation, they’re now on the resistance’s enemies list. Because of that, they need the U.S. to support them even more. As a result, former Kurdish guerrillas now make up a disproportionate share of the American-backed Iraqi National Army laying siege to Arab cities like Fallujah and Samara.

"The problem at this point is that if the Kurds go out of their way to help the United States or don’t go out of their way to support the U.S., it really doesn’t matter," argues Dr. Sabah Salih. Salih is a professor of English at Bloomsburg University in Pennsylvania and a native of Arbil. "The perception on the Arab side is that the Kurds are trying to create a second Israel, so the Kurdish side is trying to endear itself to the United States hoping that the United States will decide to stay in Kurdistan. That’s because the Arab side is already saying that the United States will not be in Iraq forever, and when the U.S. leaves, they will try to have their way with the Kurdish people."

In the meantime, Kurdish authorities are urging their followers to return to Kirkuk, which was ethnically cleansed by Saddam Hussein during the 1980s. One such Kurd is Myda Mossan. After the war, she moved her family of six into a large four-bedroom home in the city. An Arab family, anxious to leave the area, sold it to her for $15,000 – a fraction of its value on the open market. Mossan has little sympathy for the previous Arab owners.

"They [the Arabs] came under the conditions of the old regime, and now they’re leaving," she told me. "There’s a process of freedom going on. In the past this area was a Kurdish place, so they should go and leave the area."

But such statements are not received well in neighboring capitals like Damascus, Tehran, and Ankara, where governments lord over sizable and largely oppressed Kurdish populations. After holding his own meeting with Britain’s Jack Straw Thursday, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul declared, "Kirkuk is a city that belongs to all Iraqis and all of Iraq’s natural resources also belong to all the Iraqi people."

"There should be no provocative acts aiming to maximize [the Kurds’] status or strengthen their the position," he said. "That would be a problem in Iraq’s path toward stability."

The Turkish Parliament has voted for its own invasion of Iraq if an independent state of Kurdistan is declared. The country has the fourth biggest army in the world and already maintains two bases inside northern Iraq.

Kani Xulam of the American Kurdish Information Network has other worries. "I’m really worried Kirkuk could become the next Sarajevo where there will be an all-out war," he says. "I wish there could be a plebiscite where everyone could have their own say, like the split of Czechoslovakia. But then someone like Yawar says, ‘If you have self-determination, I will crush your head,’ and that is a recipe for disaster."