March 26, 2002
Fake
Friendships
In the months following 9/11, China's status as an emergent rival slipped from the headlines and out of many American minds. Although China's support for the war in Afghanistan didn't reach beyond public forums such as the APEC meeting in Shanghai or concern for the lack of a strong UN role, it was heartfelt in its condemnation of terrorists and therefore enough for most Americans. The celebrations that did take place, the "I told you so attitude" and a few tasteless movies were roundly criticized by leaders of both countries. China and the US needed to establish a mutual understanding after 9/11, so the deportation of foreign practitioners of Falun Gong and the sentencing of a Hong Kong Bible smuggler were treated with caution by the leaderships.
Following Bush's
January Asia trip and China's first forays as a full-fledged WTO member, there
was a (perceived) further warming of Sino-US ties.
In the hopes of taking advantage of this opportunity, the two countries planned
a trip to the US for Jiang's probable successor, Hu Jintao. The trip will
allow Hu to step into the light a bit and remove the addition of "Jiang's
successor" to his name while also giving the Bush Administration an idea
of what the future holds in terms of China's politics. Things didn't look
too bad …
But the Chinese government quickly asserted itself in the WTO as a counterbalance
to the rich developed nations who are the de facto rulers of the World Trade
Organization – then in March China released new regulations concerning
the import of soybeans which dealt a blow to soybean producers in the US.
The US responded by introducing its own "anti-dumping" legislation
following a court ruling that Chinese replacement windshields were being sold
at an unfair price in the American market. The US also imposed a tariff on
imported steel that hurts an already stumbling Chinese steel industry and
extended an invitation to the Taiwan Defense Minister to visit Florida and
chat with Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz – a noted warhawk.
The China Daily carried Chinese Foreign Minister Zhang Qi Yue's rebuke of
the US government's continued inability to stay out of China's internal affairs
and neglect of the Three Communiques which supposedly govern the two nations'
actions concerning Taiwan. The Communiques are routinely flaunted by the US
and held up in sputtering rage by the Chinese.
The recently-brought-to-light Taiwan spy scandal demonstrates that US strategic
interests are not at stake here. The real reason why the US continually sells
arms to Taiwan in direct opposition to the Communiques has more to do with
how Taiwan makes its friends: with money.
In March 2000, the head of the Taiwan National Security Bureau, Colonel Liu
Kuan-Chun made off with millions from the Bureau's secret accounts. These
accounts provided the bribe money that keeps countries such as Japan, South
Africa and the US supportive of Taiwan (independence) as well as the funds
for Taiwan's spy operations in Mainland China. So far, the US media has kept
its mouth shut about this very important revelation. If the US public were
to know what drives our Taiwan policy – bribery – perhaps the policy
could change.
For more than any other issue, the question of Taiwan's status vis-à-vis
the world is one that can set China off. As the US government is very aware
of the sensitivity of the issue, one can only conclude that the Bush Administration
is giving Hu Jintao an idea of what he can expect in the future, more bribes,
more weapon sales and more lies.
Trouble on
the Homefront
In the domestic arena, Hu should prepare himself for the labour unrest
that has been a long time coming. The protests these past two weeks in the
Northeast are the largest of countless protests that have been brewing in
teahouses and growing in rice fields all over China. Millions of Chinese wander
from village to town to city in search of work. The situation can only get
worse before it gets better. Inevitable trade wars in the WTO as well as with
the US can only make matters worse in the short run.
A bright note is the reaction of the Chinese police – instead of quelling
the disturbance immediately with tear gas and riot cops (much more likely
here in the US), the police stood aside and let the people voice their opinion
for a few days. Company executives, instead of leaning back and observing
the beatings from on high, are now on television and in the newspapers explaining
company policy and handing out cash, if only half the demanded amount.
The protest leaders in Liaoyang are under arrest "until the demonstrators
disperse," which is a far cry from the imprisonment in Qinghai Province
Wei Jingsheng experienced in the 1990s.
But how long can China afford to coax the people into maintaining social stability?
China's "rust belt" is not nearly as heavily populated as the southern
and southwestern Provinces, especially Sichuan. If the protests come too quick
too strong, either Jiang or Hu will crack down and impose order – US
Congressmen be damned.
Dollars are
Guns
A recent article by Franscesco Sisci points out the rise of civilian
control in the Chinese government. The proposed creation of a National Security
Council with advisors from all walks of life will dilute the power of the
military, says Sisci, and augment the positions of leading economists and
businessmen. The dollar has replaced the gun in the international arena and
both China and the US realize that trade wars are inevitable.
The US government is as involved in the economy as the Chinese government
is. The difference is that that as China's government releases control in
accordance with the wishes of the West and the WTO, the US increases control
despite its own splutterings about the free market. The US hypocrisy and the
sham friendship that followed 9/11 can only result in further misunderstandings
and increased animosity.
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