Three deaths in recent days could have a significant
effect not only on the current occupation of Iraq but on
the likelihood that the United States will soon
undertake a similar military endeavor in the region in
the near future. The deaths of Saddam Hussein's two
vicious sons, Qusay and Uday, have to make the United
States look better. Although Saddam himself apparently
remains at large, at least the Iraqi people know that
his likely successors (had the United States not
intervened) will not be around to seize power.
The apparent suicide of British government scientist
David Kelly, however, might turn out to be of more
significance for future military adventures. Kelly was
almost certainly the main off-the-record source for a
BBC reporter who wrote in May that the Blair government
had "sexed up" a dossier on Saddam's banned weapons by
claiming, apparently inaccurately, that they could be
deployed within 45 minutes. Publicly entering the world
of political hype and spin - he was grilled by a
parliamentary committee and his picture splashed all
over the telly and newspapers - was apparently too much
for the mild-mannered scientist.
That apparent dubious use of intelligence to hype the
case for going to war with Saddam Hussein's regime turns
out to be only one of numerous instances of fudging the
intelligence, on both sides of the Atlantic. We have all
heard the putatively cynical maxim, "In war, the first
casualty is truth." But the propaganda run-up to this
war featured so many exaggerations that it is not
unreasonable to suspect that all the claims - except the
one that Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator whose
ousting would on balance benefit the Iraqi people - were
untrue to a significant degree.
And despite the truth of Saddam's brutality, evidence
also continues to mount that the United States has not
been greeted as a welcome liberator in Iraq. The death
toll for U.S. military personnel continues to rise, even
though, as Editor & Publisher has reported, most
U.S. media underplay the death toll seriously. Even as
it is becoming clear that occupying Iraq is turning out
to be more difficult than originally envisioned, and as
the vaunted "weapons of mass destruction" haven't showed
up, prickly questions about the quality of the
intelligence on which U.S. officials are said to have
relied are becoming more urgent.
Did the administration really have good evidence of
weapons or anything resembling an imminent threat from
Iraq? Did the administration encourage intelligence
operatives to "cook the books" to make the case for war
more plausible? Was there a pattern of choosing to
believe shaky information so long as it tended to
support the already-decided proposition that Saddam
Hussein needed to be taken out?
The answers, tentatively, appear to be no, yes, and
yes.
The most publicized issue involves the "yellowcake"
(a low grade of uranium) that Iraq was supposed to be
trying to purchase from Niger in Africa. In his State of
the Union address, President Bush uttered those 16
fateful words: "The British government has learned that
Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of
uranium from Africa."
That claim has been shown to have been based on
forged documents, indeed on what some CIA analysts
viewed as crude forgeries (one letter had the wrong name
for the foreign minister of Niger). The documents had
been around since last fall, and CIA Director George
Tenet had urged the president, successfully, to delete a
reference to Saddam's alleged African shopping trip from
an Oct. 7 speech. Now Stephen Hadley, deputy national
security adviser, has fallen on his sword (but not
resigned), taking what passes for responsibility in
Babylon-on-the-Potomac for the "mistake."
But the use of shaky or discredited intelligence
appears to be part of a pattern of exaggerating the
threat to bolster support for attacking Iraq.
The most extensive treatment of the pattern appeared
in a May 5 New Yorker piece by veteran investigative
journalist Seymour M. Hersh. In it, Hersh detailed the
formation of an Office of Special Plans in the Pentagon,
conceived by Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and
headed by longtime colleague Abram Shulsky. The OSP
operated as a "Team B," with access to raw data from
existing intelligence agencies and a mandate to
interpret it in its own way. It also tended to give
credit to information from Ahmad Chalabi's Iraqi
National Congress, which both the CIA and Defense
Intelligence Agency regarded as extremely
unreliable.
Special Plans tended to treat the most alarming
reports about weapons and links to terrorist groups as
reliable, and before long the president, vice president
and other administration officials were using OSP
assessments in preference to the more cautious
assessments from the CIA and DIA. A former intelligence
official told Hersh: "One of the reasons I left was my
sense that they were using the intelligence from the CIA
and other agencies only when it fit their agenda. They
didn't like the intelligence they were getting, so they
brought in people to write the stuff."
John Judis and Spencer Ackerman, in a piece for the
June 30 issue of the New Republic (which supported the
war enthusiastically), wrote about the Office of Special
Plans, the yellowcake controversy and several other
exaggerations the administration used to justify the
war.
British Prime Minister Tony Blair's stirring speech
July 17 before a joint session of Congress, defending
the war whether WMDs are found or not, was upstaged
almost immediately by news that the body of David Kelly,
a former U.N. weapons inspector, was found the next day
in the woods about five miles from his home. The inquiry
into his apparent suicide could lead to the resignations
of senior officials in the British government, the BBC,
or both. That could make any future British government
leery of supporting future U.S. plans for overseas
regime changes.
Then there's the question of whether Saddam's regime
had real links (beyond a possible occasional meeting
with no real follow-up) to the al-Qaida terrorist
network. Daniel Benjamin of the Center for Strategic and
International Studies and Steven Simon of the Rand Corp.
(hardly havens for raving pacifists), authors of the
book "The Age of Sacred Terror," just wrote a piece in
which they noted that "in the 14 weeks since the fall of
Baghdad, coalition forces have not brought to light any
significant evidence demonstrating the bond between Iraq
and al-Qaida," despite the fact that "uncovering such a
link should be much easier than finding weapons of mass
destruction."
The Bush administration would hardly be the first in
history to fudge information to bolster the case for a
policy it had decided to pursue, especially a policy of
war. But it is becoming apparent that the exaggeration
was so pervasive as to raise serious questions if it
moves significantly toward trying to take out other
regimes by military force.