The 9/11 Commission report on U.S. intelligence failures subscribes
to the notion that there is a way in which the government can "fix"
the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and other information-gathering
agencies. The authors assume that if only a competent group of CIA
analysts had been able to gain access before 9/11 to the available
information on Islamic terrorist groups, the Bush administration
would have been able to thwart the attacks on New York and Washington.
In a way, those who prepared the commission's report imagine that
the U.S. intelligence agencies can be transformed into something
akin to efficient information-gathering and analysis systems. Sophisticated
technology and skilled spies will retrieve every piece of data on
terrorism that is out there. Highly educated researchers, fluent
in the many dialects of Arabic and Urdu, will examine the facts
and figures, and superintelligent analysts will draw the right conclusions.
And based on that flow of information and analysis, a group of dedicated
public servants and honorable statesmen, led by an independent and
impartial "intelligence czar" will recommend the correct policies
to the White House and ensure that 9/11-like catastrophes never
happen again.
It's that kind of belief in the possibility of individuals and
organizations knowing enough to predict human behavior and to alter
its outcome that was criticized by the renowned economist Friedrich
Hayek as "hubris" - that is, the pride which challenges the gods.
The winner of the Nobel Prize in economics and one of the leading
intellectual forces behind free-market economics in the late 20th
century didn't focus much attention on national security policy
or government intelligence agencies. But Hayek, throughout his life,
attacked what he called "scientism" - the imitation in the social
sciences, including economics and political science, of the methods
of the physical sciences. It was the limitations of human knowledge
that in Hayek's view, made the market so important because it created,
conveyed and revealed information in a way no other human institution,
and certainly no government agency, could ever emulate.
The free-market model presumes that the flow of data, knowledge
and ideas can permit consumers to gain access to complete and accurate
information on the basis of which they can make the reasonable choices.
As Hayek argued, a market of information and ideas, free from the
control of government and other centralized powers, results in a
competitive discovery process that cannot be predicted in advance.
His ideal model was based on cooperative and competitive behavior
among individuals, households and enterprises that appears haphazard
and anarchic but that helps produce accurate information and efficient
results.
The government's intelligence agencies are the ultimate antithesis
to this model of a free market of information and ideas. If anything,
they represent the ideal of "scientism" and social engineering that
was disparaged by Hayek. By definition, these institutions are public
monopolies that collect and manipulate information. They represent
the most secretive, restrictive and tightly controlled bureaucracy
in a government that abhors the notion of a "spontaneous order"
that results from the competition of ideas.
That is the nature of the beast - a system that is bound to create
a "group-think" mentality and to downplay and dismiss information
that doesn't fit the agenda of policy-makers.
Even under the best of circumstances in which the CIA is able to
recruit the best and the brightest, it will never be able to predict
the outcomes of global political and economic phenomena. If anything,
as the case of Iraq's alleged WMD demonstrates, the monopoly over
information and political authority that the intelligence agency
has could end up distorting the free flow of information and ideas.
Proposing that we can "fix" this system to make it an open, objective
and independent information-processing system is not very different
than arguing that we can make a centralized economy more efficient,
or that we can liberalize a communist government. Boys will be boys
- and intelligence agencies will continue to be politicized, incompetent
and wasteful government bureaucracies. And, occasionally, they will
even get lucky. As a result of sophisticated technology, the courage
of an American agent or a defection by an enemy spy, they may end
up providing a marginal advantage to the U.S. government during
time of crisis and war.
Instead of trying to "fix" the CIA, Americans would be better off
by electing hubris-free presidents and lawmakers who don't go to
war, invade other countries, and try to change the world based on
the kind of incomplete information and distorted analysis that a
government agency provides.