The Afghan Quagmire Beckons
or How Not to Intervene in Afghanistan
by Chris Deliso
October 17, 2001

DESPERATE TIMES CALL FOR DESPERATE MEASURES

Perhaps the full weight and consequences of a massive and overt military strike did not register in Washington, a few weeks back, when America still had the unquestioned moral high ground. Now, well into the second week of bombings and suffering from some bad PR over Afghani civilian deaths, the US is staring into the morass of potential disaster. The American people themselves are too terrified of the increasing terrorist threat of anthrax, hijackings and bombs to take much heart in the destruction of empty Taliban bases (and a few apartment buildings).

Underestimated was the wholehearted opposition of Muslims throughout the Middle East and Asia, and also underestimated was the incredible pressure this would have on the stability of "allied" regimes, such as Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt. Even Yasser Arafat is in danger from his own people. His security forces shot three Palestinian protesters, ironically thereby increasing the risk of a Palestinian civil war – just as Western leaders are starting to float the idea of a Palestinian state.

But the biggest potential oversight, the most dangerous potential chaos, has been the lack of a consistent plan for post-Taliban Afghanistan. Whether the US leadership didn’t comprehend all the delicately interconnected interests at work, or whether it just hoped to sort them out later, it’s obvious that it does not have a coherent vision as of yet. All indications, however, are that the new century’s first war will be fought, politically speaking, with the armament of bygone centuries – that is, the shortsighted tactic of playing sides, positioning usurpers, cheerily accepting allies, and then having it come back to haunt them. After all, didn’t bin Laden start off as a US… ally?

This dynamic, what I call old-school interventionism, never went away, though the means of fighting wars have changed. New times call for new measures, not the application of outdated tactics to modern problems.

MUDDLED THINKING

The confusion in US thinking is most apparent in the changing relationship with the Northern Alliance. Once thought to be the Taliban’s political replacement, this predominantly Uzbek and Tajik minority force is now being held at arm’s length. The US is desperately stalling on letting them take Kabul. Why? Well, for one, under their late leader, General Massood, the Northern Alliance supported India in regards to Kashmir. Since India is Pakistan’s archenemy, and the Taliban is basically a nightmare dreamt up by the Pakistani secret service, it is no surprise that any anti-Taliban force would ally with India. The second reason why Washington is putting on the kid gloves with the NA is because the more they see of them, the less they trust them. The opinion has been voiced by journalists and even by Afghani women (who should know) that the NA is just as thuggish and brutal as the Taliban.

LET’S REWIND: THE OPPOSITION’S STATURE ON 3 OCTOBER

Scarcely two weeks ago, the initial US enthusiasm for the Northern Alliance was getting great coverage from an obedient press. In fact, for a short time it was in danger of becoming a made-for-TV epic – Afghanistan: the Fight for Freedom. Since it’s always more entertaining and less confusing to relate events within a prepackaged storyline, the narrative was set to unfold in its usual, simplistic way. For whereas the Northern Alliance had lost a hero in the assassinated General Massood, they (and we the spectators) then gained a potential hero – in his wily, monolingual replacement, the great Afghani underdog, Abdul Qassim Fahim.

This is clearly someone to watch out for as the saga unfolds, implied AFP. Just consider how Fahim (a veteran guerrilla warrior, remember) was described: he is said to be a "shy" general, who prefers to stay "out of the limelight." In replacing Masood, who had always "overshadowed" him, he would have "a lot to live up to."

HEY, IT'S THE AFGHANI A-TEAM

The article then goes on to give a modest biography of this dependable, loyal monoglot who has apparently never traveled outside of Afghanistan, but headed up significant military and intelligence operations for Massood since the early 1980’s. Despite Fahim’s reluctance to take the lead and his lack of eloquence, AFP promised that he’s flanked by a "crack team of reemerging military and diplomatic heavyweights." Among these notables are the brother of the late General Massood, and the spokesman for the Alliance, the man with a name like a teen pop idol, Abdullah Abdullah. Besides these heavy-hitters, Fahim could count on Yunus Qanooni and Masood Khalili, both dubbed "seasoned Afghan players." With the addition of Burhanuddin Rabbani (still recognized by the UN as Afghanistan’s president), this means that Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance is controlled by six ethnic Tajiks.

US VERSUS THEM – BUT LISTEN TO THIS

The Taliban claims to speak for Afghanistan’s largest ethnic group, the Pashtuns. The Pashtuns are most widespread in the south and center of the country, whereas their various enemies (the Uzbek and Tajik minorities) dwell in the north, on the borders with Uzbekistan and Tajikistan – hence the words, "northern," and "alliance." Since the majority of the leadership of both rivals is composed of their respective ethnic group, the whole Afghani civil war can be dismissed as ethnic infighting, with a long series of grudges, utterly incomprehensible to Westerners. Yet occasionally the AFP reporter stumbled upon incongruous, even "ironic" little tidbits:

"Also on Fahim's team is the former governor of the eastern province of Nangahar, Abdul Haji Qadir – one of the few ethnic Pashtun members of the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance. Ironically it was Qadir who first gave Osama bin Laden safe haven in Afghanistan in 1996, but the governor is seen as a popular figure likely to attempt to regain control of his province if the Taliban are removed from power."

HUH?

Shouldn’t this little "irony" show just how volatile and utterly mercurial these "allies" are whom we now embrace? If the bit about bin Laden wasn’t disturbing enough, just think about the potential fallout of the AFP’s cheery prognosis: Qadir is "likely to attempt to regain control of his province." In other words, once the Taliban is gone, it’s going to turn into one giant mess – and very likely the result will be a fractured, multi-state Afghanistan, a free-for-all where hated warlords like Gulbutten Hekmatyar will try to reassert their bloody hold. The clock is ticking; the Northern Alliance now fears that the US will sell them out to keep from losing the support of Pakistan. After all, the NA says, why isn’t the US helping them by taking out the Taliban’s front line positions, if they are really on their side?

OLD-SCHOOL INTERVENTIONISM: DISASTER FOR AFGHANISTAN

Even before the Taliban came to power, the situation was the same. Russia and Britain had fought over Afghanistan, uselessly, in the previous centuries. Nowadays various Arab states and groups vie for control of this vast, forbidding pile of rocks. A National Geographic special on Afghanistan way back in October, 1993, quoted the security advisor to Massood, then the Defense Minister of the Afghan government. Reflecting on their previous "liberation" campaign, he said, "since the day we took Kabul, we have had mujahidin groups backed by Pakistan fighting groups backed by Saudi Arabia and God Almighty knows who else. If the foreigners would just leave us alone, I promise you we would be a lot better off!"

A GOVERNING BODY FOR THE 21^ST CENTURY?

To his credit, the returning ex-king, Zahir Shah, also believes that the Afghanis should do it for themselves, without outside meddling. Like an aging prizefighter, Zahir Shah has come out of retirement at the age of 86 for one last fight, to lead his country into – er, transition. With no guarantee that it will actually work, the king has presented plans for an egalitarian – dare I say it, enlightened – post-Taliban government. He has been advocating a reversion to the traditional Afghan ruling structure, last used in the 18^th century – the tribal council. Now that he has the support of Pakistan, and the apparent loyalty of some Taliban moderates, it looks like we might see them try it. A miracle of multiethnicity, the tribal council seeks to bring together representatives of each of Afghanistan’s ethnic groups, from all parts of the country. It’s so righteous, it could almost win America’s heart. It’s so beautiful, it could almost be a European coalition government. In other words – it will never work.

IF EVERYONE’S SWITCHING SIDES, THEN WHO ARE WE BACKING?

As American bombs exploded over Afghanistan last week, news stories reported mass defections of Taliban troops, and even officers, to the Northern Alliance. This should seem to be great news for the "allies" of the west; clearly, morale is sinking fast in the ranks of the oppressors, and the Taliban will soon be bereft of the bulk of its fighting force.

Yet there is a more worrying correlative of the turncoat phenomenon: since the Taliban soldiers are going over to the other side as a means of saving their own hides, it follows that either they were never as ideologically committed to the cause as is portrayed (and, therefore, the offensive ideology lay in the domain of the few) or, that we will end up backing the same individuals in different uniforms – in other words, the Taliban by a different name. (Hell, we’re already feeding the Taliban – they have the guns and thus keep the airdropped foodstuffs from the starving Afghani civilians). Either way, the policy of blindly backing one side simply because it is the enemy of your current enemy is both foolhardy and dangerous – yet unfortunately, it is also time-tested and US-government approved. The classic knee-jerk, old-school interventionist method is rearing its ugly head, just when it is becoming most dangerously outdated.

IN PRAISE OF REGIONAL WARFARE

The beauty of localized squabbles, regional animosities, and shrill, lilliputian arguments, is that they are indeed local and contained. Now, of course, this is nothing wonderful to wish for; but given the choice between a world war and a regional war, I’ll go with the latter. Yes, for some reason small-scale conventional warfare, fought on clearly delineated territory, seems more appetizing to me than biological attacks and unexpected terrorism, coming from out of nowhere, leaving no chance for honor, valor or self-defense.

The prevalence of old-school interventionism, however, transforms little, regional wars into world wars in two ways, one of which we have seen before, and one of which is brand new. First, the intrigue-laden realpolitik governments of the past centuries have, through building alliance based on the "my enemy’s enemy is my friend" premise, exacerbated regional wars through their proxies, often at a great distance from the major "sponsoring" country, into huge and complex wars.

Second – and this is a phenomenon more unique to the current status of the US as lone superpower, and of the rise of technology and communications – with the same tactics of old-school realpolitik intervention, the US has been able to build up regional allies (and enemies) across a far greater geographical distance. This, however, has exposed the US to attack from an equally vast area. With the modern technologies that have made the wide, wide world seem very small indeed, the attackers enjoy invisibility and anonymity – the conditions that terrorism thrives on.

The classic term for describing America’s situation is "overextended." Yet it is not overextended in the way that, say, the later Roman Empire was; for the mortal sickness of Rome was weakness on its flanks, on its borders, on specific frontiers where the barbarians could penetrate. They did not have the modern transportation and communications abilities that would allow them, like the US, to take part in regional squabbles far from their borders. Thus, the Romans did not have to worry about Japanese or sub-Saharan attackers. The US, on the other hand, is overextended, in that it does not possess the resources to stave off every threat that might materialize, as repercussions of myriad failed interventions in regional squabbles. For playing this dangerous interventionist game only ensures that you will win a few friends – and many more enemies.

AFTER THE WAR

The important thing to remember is that we have choice. We can choose whether or not we want to get involved; we can choose whether we even need to back any particular side. It is not necessary that we be forced into supporting or denouncing a cause or group just because it is in another country’s interest. Since it is looking more and more like none of the rival factions are "worthy" (according to American political idealism) of US support, why not just let the Afghanis get on with it themselves? Why not let the king sort them out? After all, it seems that whether we destroy the Taliban, support the Northern Alliance, or do anything at all, in fact, it will only foster new resentment from new enemies. When you add this to the old resentments coming from the old enemies, it seems pretty clear that crippling exhaustion will soon set in. That’s what happens when empire is overextended. Whether or not the US perfects a new type of intervention, one thing is clear – in using the kind of old-school, knee-jerk intervention that has brought us this far, there lies nothing but disaster and ruin.

Christopher Deliso is a journalist and travel writer with special interest in current events in the areas of the former Byzantine Empire – the Balkans, Greece, Turkey, and Caucasus. Mr. Deliso holds a master's degree with honors in Byzantine Studies (from Oxford University), and has traveled widely in the region. His current long-term research projects include the Macedonia issue, the Cyprus problem, and the ethnography of Byzantine Georgia.