Is a Draft on the Horizon?
by Rick Jahnkow
Draft NOtices
9/9/99

Current attempts to eliminate draft registration and the Selective Service System are bound to be affected by all of the attention now being focused on military recruiting shortfalls. All branches of the military, except the Marine Corps, are expected to miss their enlistment goals, and some politicians and military "experts" have suggested that it's time to seriously consider a return to the draft. This includes the chair of the House Armed Services Committee, Rep. Floyd Spence (R-SC), and committee member Rep. Solomon P. Ortiz (D-TX). The chair of the House Armed Services subcommittee on readiness, Rep. Herbert H. Bateman (R-VA), said "some form of selective conscription" may be the answer to the recruiting problem, and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and a presidential hopeful, has "floated the idea," according to the Los Angeles Times.

While politicians and some media editorials have urged consideration of a draft, the Pentagon is officially still in favor of relying on voluntary enlistments. This could change, however, if the steps that are now being taken to boost recruitment do not prove effective.

Why the Pentagon hesitates on the issue

While the seeds are now being planted for a future draft by all of the pro-conscription comments in the media, it is unlikely the government would consider authorizing inductions in the next couple of years. One reason is that the Pentagon itself has not yet conceded the recruiting struggle (when does the U.S. military ever admit "defeat"?). The military leadership would rather milk the enlistment shortfall for as much sympathy as it can from Congress and the public, and a draft would undermine their rationale for requesting Pentagon budget increases, more recruiting money, JROTC expansion and increased access to high schools and colleges. In fact, a draft could spark a backlash that would threaten the very deep tendrils the Pentagon has been burying in educational institutions via ROTC, JROTC, partnerships with grade schools, and the like. This is why most of the military leadership still says it does not want a draft, in addition to the fact that they know it is an inefficient way to train and operate an armed force.

By planting itself so deeply into educational institutions, the military can increase its influence on society and thereby ensure its ability to win future support for budget increases, arms races, and military intervention. With a draft, the Pentagon would have to make a tactical shift and maintain its societal influence by relying on the channeling of large numbers of young people through military training-which is what it did from WWII through Vietnam. However, if draft calls are too low, not enough people would be exposed to the effects of military training and indoctrination, and the strong animosity conscription would generate might cause the military to lose, rather than gain, influence in the long term.

Conditions that could lead to a draft

Just in terms of numbers, the current recruitment shortfalls are not large enough to rationalize anything but a very small, selective draft. On the other hand, if the size of the active-duty force-presently set at 1.4 million people-were greatly increased, military training via a draft could once again give the military the socializing tool it employed effectively to build its base of support fifty years ago.

A major outside threat would make this possible, and there are currently a number of places around the world where the US may find the necessary pretext-Korea, South America and Mexico, to name a few-but China may be the ultimate candidate to fill the role the Soviet bloc once played as a rationale for US military mobilization.

Without something like this – or a combination of several simultaneous, smaller threats-to gain support for large draft calls, the military would gain the most by continuing to rely on recruiting and pushing for more resources to expand its influence over educational and cultural institutions. With this strategy, the Pentagon can plant seeds that will make society more militaristic and, in the process, increase the likelihood that a draft would be accepted if and when it is introduced.

The Pentagon understands the importance of this approach and so should advocates of peace and justice. It is up to us to adopt a parallel strategy and resist the militarization of society at all levels. This means not only objecting to talk of conscription, but also resisting the Pentagon's efforts to insinuate itself and its value system in our schools, the media and other social institutions. In doing so, we can not only defeat a draft, but also deter another burst of statism that would inevitably breed more war and injustice.

This article is from the September-October 1999 issue of Draft NOtices, a bi-monthly newsletter published by the Committee Opposed to Militarism and the Draft (COMD), P.O. Box 15195, San Diego, CA 92175. Email: comdsd@aol.com.