A number of experts have concluded that despite
the Bush administration's desire to attack Iran, the aggression would be too
rash and the consequences too dire even for the irrational Bush administration.
Military experts point out that at a time when generals are calling for more
troops for Afghanistan and Iraq, it would be ill-advised for Bush to add Iran
to the war theater. Experts note that Iran is well armed with missiles capable
of attacking U.S. ships and oil facilities throughout the Middle East and that
Iran can direct its Shi'ite allies in Iraq to assault U.S. troops there and
set in motion terrorist actions throughout the Middle East.
Diplomatic experts point out that the U.S. is isolated in its desire for war
with Iran and has no ally except Israel, thus validating Muslim claims that
the U.S. is Israel's instrument against Muslims in the Middle East. Experts
note that military aggression is a war crime and that American violations of
international law isolate the U.S. and destroy the soft power on which U.S.
leadership has been based. An attack on Iran could be the last straw for Muslims
chafing under the rule of U.S. puppet governments in Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan,
and Saudi Arabia.
Economic experts point out that the impact on the price of oil would be severe
and the economic consequences detrimental. With the U.S. housing bubble deflating,
now is not the time for an oil shock.
It is difficult to take exception to this expert analysis. Nevertheless, the
Bush administration continues to send war signals. Credible news organizations
have reported that U.S. naval attack groups have been given "prepare to
deploy orders" that would put them on station off Iran by Oct. 21.
How can Bush administration war plans be reconciled with expert opinion that
the consequences would be too dire for the U.S.?
Perhaps the answer is that what appears as irrationality to experts is rationality
to neoconservatives. Neocons seek maximum chaos and instability in the Middle
East in order to justify long-term U.S. occupation of the region. Following
this line of thought, neocons would regard the loss of a U.S. aircraft carrier
in the Persian Gulf as a way to solidify public support for the war. American
anger at the Iranians could even result in support for a military draft in order
to win "the war on terror."
The Bush administration could bring Congress around by announcing a "Gulf
of Tonkin" incident or by orchestrating a "terrorist attack."
However, this is unnecessary as Bush has prepared the ground for bypassing Congress
with his propagandistic allegations that Iran, by arming Iraqi insurgents, sponsoring
terrorism, and building nuclear weapons, is a major part of the ongoing "war
against terrorism." Now that Iran is blamed for rising violence in Iraq,
an attack on Iran follows as a matter of course. All Bush has to do is to continue
with his lies in order to bring the American public to a new war hysteria.
Bush's attorney general has demonstrated that he has no qualms about validating
any and all extralegal powers that the White House requires for violating the
U.S. Constitution and international law. The congressional attempts to block
illegal wiretapping and torture have failed. The Senate has refused to authorize
torture, but the Senate has not prevented the administration from torturing
detainees. The compromise leaves it to the White House to decide by executive
order whether its interrogation practices are objectionable. In an editorial,
the Washington Post concluded that "the
abuse can continue."
Polls show that Bush administration propaganda has convinced a majority of
inattentive Americans that Iran is making nuclear weapons. Polls show that a
majority support an attack on Iran under this circumstance. The neoconservatives
and their media allies have succeeded in causing the public to confuse Iran's
legal nuclear energy program with a weapons program.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, whose inspectors pore over Iran's nuclear
energy program for signs of a weapons program, recently denounced a House Intelligence
Committee report as "outrageous and dishonest." Written by the neocon
staff, the Republican report falsely alleges that Iran had enriched uranium
to weapons-grade last April and that the IAEA had removed a senior safeguards
inspector to keep the alleged breach of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Pact secret.
Once again neoconservatives have shown that they will tell any and every lie
to achieve their goal of attacking Iran. Jingoistic anti-UN Bush supporters
will automatically believe the neocon lie and swallow right-wing talk radio
claims that the UN is protecting Iran's nuclear weapons program. As we learned
from the Iraq hysteria, facts and experts are no impediment to the Bush administration's
Rumsfeld's neocon Pentagon has rewritten U.S. war doctrine to permit preemptive
nuclear attack on non-nuclear countries. As the U.S. paid a huge public relations
cost in terms of world opinion and distrust of the U.S. by endorsing the first
use of nuclear weapons, the
revision of U.S. war doctrine must have a purpose.
Neocons claim that tactical nuclear weapons are necessary to destroy Iran's
underground facilities. However, the real reason for using nukes against Iran
is to intimidate Iran from retaliating and to threaten the entire Muslim world
with genocide unless Muslims bend to the neocons' will and accept U.S. hegemony
over their part of the world.
In his speech to the United Nations, Hugo Chávez might not have been
too deep into hyperbole when he described Bush as an example of demonic evil.