Issue: 13 November 2004	PAGE 2 of 2 << previous

Copying Republican Christianity is not the answer for the Democrats. Finding out what is the answer is, for them, bedevilled at present by the sayers of the Same Thing. But however hard it is at the moment, the Democrats must try to find out whether the present Same Thing is correct. Is it true that the ‘religious vote’ won it for Mr Bush? The belief that it is indeed true is derived from the exit polls’ finding that 22 per cent of voters, and in some polls more, said that ‘moral values’ had been the most important issue.

But in search of an answer to the ‘religious vote’ question, we must scour the various American websites now devoted to the statistics of politics, campaigns and elections. There we will see that Mr Bush’s largest gains were among the less religious voters. Among those attending services weekly and more than weekly, his support rose by one point from his previous election. But among those never attending services it rose by four points. This is consistent with other figures showing that Mr Bush made gains among most kinds of voter. This, on the face of it, looks bad for the Democrats. But most presidents who won by Mr Bush’s margin make gains among most kinds of voter. It suits world-wide anti-Americanism to depict the United States as a theocracy. But those figures prove that there is no religious bar to a future Democrat presidential victory.

Mr Kerry did not do especially badly. He was just not popular enough. To win, the Democrats have to find a popular candidate. That is not as hard as it sounds, since they did it recently with Mr Clinton. Within a few months, this view could be the next Same Thing.