Middle East – Page 31 – Antiwar.com Blog

First Amendment Takes Another Hit

Fellow Brooklynite Javed Iqbal, 45, today plead guilty to broadcasting Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV programming to US customers. The charge is “providing material support to a foreign terrorist organization.”

Eric brought this news item to my attention and asked if I wanted to blog about it.

“Not really. What should I add?”

“Add your outrage.”

I paused and thought about it. “But I’m not outraged right now.”

And that got me to thinking — why AREN’T I outraged? Is it that I am so used to this Administration jailing people for absurd and frivolous reasons? Am I now merely bored by the thought of the government spying on American citizens on the basis of nebulous and unlikely threats of terror? Has it become so “whatever” to hear of someone denied an explicit constitutional right because it might help the propaganda arm of an organization our government has declared a terrorist organization but which is not by all legitimate and objective standards a terrorist organization?

The last time I checked, the only time Hezbollah lifted a finger to physically harm Americans was when the latter were occupying Lebanon — and even then, it’s not proven. Israel might consider Hezbollah to be terrorists for daring to challenge the Israeli occupation of Lebanon, but as I live in the United States, I don’t care much to live by the warped standards of Israeli justice.

This was not shouting “Fire!” in a crowded theater. Al-Manar may broadcast distasteful programs, but it doesn’t incite its viewers to commit violence. This case IS an outrage and should outrage anyone who prefers liberty over security — not that anyone is more secure by Iqbal’s certain conviction.

Broadcasting Al-Manar should not be considered a crime in the United States, where the law of the land explicitly declares that it is the exact opposite: the protected activity of expression.

The Problem with the Blackwater Indictments

So, five Blackwater guards have been indicted on charges related to a 2007 shooting in which 17 Iraqis were killed. Blackwater hired guns should be held accountable for their actionsâ€”actions that Iraqis call premeditated murder. However, I see a major problem with this. As I said whenÂ light sentencesÂ were given out to U.S. soldiers for murdering Iraqi civilians:Â “We should never forget that since the invasion and occupation of Iraq was itself aggressive, unnecessary, and immoralâ€“every Iraqi killed by U.S. troops could be said to beÂ murdered.”

The government criticizing Blackwater is the ultimate case of the pot calling the kettle black. It diverts people’s attention from the criminality of the war. The most ardent supporters of the war canÂ condemn Blackwater guards while at the same time lauding U.S. soldiers as defenders of our freedoms even though they have unleashed a genocide in Iraq. It is hard toÂ get excited about the indictments of the Blackwater guards whenÂ I see no indictments forthcoming of George Bush, Robert Gates, and Donald Rumsfeld.

How Many Troops will Obama Withdraw from Iraq?

The InTrade prediction markets allows individuals to bet on the winner of the presidential elections and US recession timings.Â They can also be used to bet on US foreign policy.Â The graph below shows the contract price for the outcome “Number of US Troops in Iraq (given a Democratic president) as of June 2010.”

A couple of features stand out.Â First, the price was relatively constant for almost all of 2008.Â Second, the price has fluctuated wildly since November 5th and is now 30% below its 2008 average.Â Here is how you calculate the implied June 2010 troop level from the contract price:

expected 2010 troop level = contract price x 2000

As of the end of June [pdf], there were 183,100 troops participating in Operation Iraqi Freedom.Â So a price for a “no change in troop levels” is 91.55 compared to a current price of 29.9. This price says that the Intrade “market” expects about 60,000 US troops in Iraq by the end of June 2010. (Note: As a thinly traded contract, it is difficult to infer true market expectations from the price.)Â If you predict less “change” from this administration, you might think this is an extremely low number.Â If you have little hope for real change, then perhaps you should purchase the contract today.Â Contracts on other foreign policy-related issues are also available:

Gitmo closed by December 31st, 2009 (low number –> low predicted likelihood)

Gates as Sec. of Defense (high number –> high expected likelihood)

Summary Executions in Iraq

The Independent’s Robert Fisk has a great article tonight about the summary executions being carried out in Saddam’s old intelligence HQ, now a “high-security detention facility.”

Of particular note is that the government’s “security officials” are so inept that they couldn’t even properly hang a man with a rope. After several failed attempts they just gave up and shot the guy in the head.

Though Iraq has only officially executed 33 people since the reintroduction of the death penalty in 2004, these killings are completely off the record, and the Independent says there have been hundreds of them.

Every Iraqi Was Murdered

In the excellent article by Ann Wright, “When Refusing to Kill Has a Higher Sentence Than Murder,” mention was made of the light sentences that were given out to U.S. soldiers for murdering Iraqi civilians. Many who support the war are alsoÂ outraged about this.Â Yet, we should never forget that since the invasion and occupation of Iraq was itself aggressive,Â unnecessary, and immoral–every Iraqi killed by U.S. troops could be said to beÂ murdered. There isÂ no such thing as state-sanctified murder.

Extrude Mahmoud

In an interview in Der Spiegel, former Mossad agent and current cabinet minister, Rafi Eitan suggested that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad might find himself in front of an International Criminal Court in The Hague if he doesn’t watch himself. Anyone with even modest knowledge of the 81-year-old Eiten’s activities, in particular his role in Adolf Eichmann’s capture, can’t rule this out as idle speculation, but as my friend Tom wondered, “why would Eitan say this publicly?”

Sure, Ahmadinejad must already figure he is one of the top picks on Mossad’s hit list, so this simply can’t be a clumsy message to the yappy Iranian leader. Besides, Mossad gets off on well-planned and highly secretive operations anyway. Why would Eitan blow the surprise for his former bosses if high profile abductions were still high on their docket? Hmm….

I might’ve glossed over this morning’s story as politics as usual if it were not for last week’s revelation, also by Eitan, that Mossad allowed Nazi witch doctor Josef Mengele get away when agents in Buenos Aires had the opportunity to nab him. Of course, that wasn’t a botched effort: Mossad had to let Mengele escape so they could be assured of completing the more important Eichmann abduction.

Now, I’m not a psychologist, nor do I generally play one on the Internet, but this paroxysm of Eitanmania is too juicy not to analyze. All fisherman great and small have a fish-that-got-away story, and the Mengele tale smells like Eitan’s. Could the Ahmadinejad story likewise be the ramblings of a famous fisherman, whose best days are long over but likes to make people believe he has live bait on his rusty but still sufficiently bent hook? Or is it possible that someday we’ll learn that Mossad did try to kidnap Ahmadinejad, and failed. I only hope we don’t have to wait 50 years for that fish story.

A tip of the pen to Tom Walls for the headline and this morning’s news story.