{"id":24774,"date":"2015-01-21T19:48:55","date_gmt":"2015-01-22T03:48:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/antiwar.com\/blog\/?p=24774"},"modified":"2015-01-21T19:48:55","modified_gmt":"2015-01-22T03:48:55","slug":"the-death-sentence-that-could-inflame-sectarian-tensions-across-the-middle-east","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/2015\/01\/21\/the-death-sentence-that-could-inflame-sectarian-tensions-across-the-middle-east\/","title":{"rendered":"The Death Sentence That Could Inflame Sectarian Tensions Across the Middle East"},"content":{"rendered":"

Last October, Saudi Arabia\u2019s Special Criminal Court sentenced<\/a> Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr – a popular Shi\u2019ite cleric and outspoken political dissident – to death.<\/p>\n

This was not an ordinary criminal trial, even considering Saudi Arabia’s liberal use of capital punishment. Among other charges, the prosecutor sought<\/a> to convict al-Nimr of \u201cwaging war on God\u201d and \u201caiding terrorists,\u201d even calling for the cleric to be publicly executed by \u201ccrucifixion.\u201d In Saudi Arabia, this rare method of execution entails<\/a> beheading the individual before publicly displaying his decapitated body.<\/p>\n

The widely revered Shi\u2019ite cleric was ultimately convicted of \u201cdisobeying<\/a>\u201d the king, waging violence against the state, inviting<\/a> \u201cforeign meddling\u201d in the kingdom, inciting<\/a> vandalism and sectarian violence, and insulting<\/a> the Prophet Muhammad\u2019s relatives. However, al-Nimr\u2019s family and supporters claim<\/a> that the ruling was politically driven and insist that the cleric led a non-violent movement committed to promoting<\/a> Shi\u2019ite rights, women\u2019s rights, and democratic reform in Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Since the October 15 ruling, high-ranking political and religious authorities in Iran and international human rights organizations have sought to pressure the Saudi Arabian leadership into sparing al-Nimr\u2019s life. Demonstrations demanding that the death sentence be revoked have been held in Saudi Arabia<\/a>, Bahrain<\/a>, Yemen<\/a>, and the United Kingdom<\/a>, underscoring the international sensitivity surrounding al-Nimr\u2019s imprisonment and death sentence.<\/p>\n

While many experts doubt that the Saudi Arabian authorities will actually carry out the execution, it is important to take stock of the political context in which the Special Criminal Court issued the death sentence.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia\u2019s Restive Shi\u2019ite Minority<\/strong><\/p>\n

Saudi Arabian Shi\u2019ites have long complained of state-sponsored discrimination and human rights abuses by conservative Sunni authorities. According<\/a> to Human Rights Watch, Saudi Arabian Shi\u2019ites \u201cface systematic discrimination in religion, education, justice, and employment.\u201d<\/p>\n

In early 2011, anti-government protests erupted in the Qatif district of Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, which is home to nearly all of Saudi Arabia\u2019s 3 million Shi\u2019ite citizens and nearly one-fifth of the world\u2019s oil supply. Throughout 2011 and 2012, al-Nimr was a leader in these protests, in which activists demanded the release of the \u201cforgotten prisoners<\/a>\u201d – a reference to nine political prisoners who had been detained then for some 16 years.<\/p>\n

After Saudi Arabian<\/a>, Emirati<\/a>, and Kuwaiti<\/a> forces entered Bahrain to help quell a non-violent Shi\u2019ite uprising in the tiny island kingdom, Saudi Shi\u2019ites expressed solidarity with their Bahraini counterparts. This prompted officials in Riyadh to fear that growing Shi\u2019ite dissent could trigger a crisis in the strategically vital Eastern Province, which borders several other countries with sizeable Shi\u2019ite populations. So between March 2011 and August 2012, the Saudi government waged a harsh crackdown on Shi\u2019ite protestors, killing over 20<\/a>, injuring several dozen<\/a>, and detaining over 1,000<\/a> others, including 24<\/a> children.<\/p>\n

Following the shooting of four Shi\u2019ites in the Eastern Province in November 2011, al-Nimr spoke at one of their funerals. \u201cWe are determined to demand our legitimate rights by peaceful means,\u201d he declared<\/a>. Al-Nimr, who had already been detained several times by that point, had called for peaceful resistance to the ruling monarchy on numerous other occasions, despite Riyadh\u2019s allegations that the cleric incited violence.<\/p>\n

On July 8, 2012, Saudi security forces shot<\/a>, wounded<\/a>, and arrested<\/a> al-Nimr after clashing<\/a> with his bodyguards. Amnesty International condemned<\/a> the arrest and described the cleric as \u201can outspoken critic of the policies and practices of the Saudi Arabian authorities affecting the [Shi\u2019ite] community, including detentions without charge or trial, and excessive use of force against protestors.\u201d<\/p>\n

Al-Nimr\u2019s trial began in March 2013. According<\/a> to the Saudi Press Agency, the judges claimed that the cleric was \u201cinsistent\u201d and \u201cstubborn\u201d during the trial. Al-Nimr did not deny the charges levied against him, yet he maintained that he never incited violence.<\/p>\n

Daesh and Saudi Arabia\u2019s Domestic Environment<\/strong><\/p>\n

Anti-Shi\u2019ism has served<\/a> as a pillar of the Wahhabi brand of Sunni Islam ever since Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab founded the movement in the 18th<\/sup> century. By inciting violence against Shi\u2019ites in the Arabian Peninsula and beyond, Saudi Arabia\u2019s political leadership has maintained the alliance with the kingdom\u2019s hardline Wahhabi religious establishment (which views all Shi\u2019ites as \u201cheretics\u201d and holds notoriously intolerant views of Christians and Jews) that led to the formation of the modern-day state of Saudi Arabia in 1932.<\/p>\n

However, the rise of Daesh (or the \u201cIslamic State\u201d) in Iraq and Syria – combined with the threat of violence from Daesh sympathizers inside Saudi Arabia – has put the government in an interesting position of having to defend its Shi\u2019ite citizens from the rigidly anti-Shi’ite group.<\/p>\n

Daesh\u2019s capacity to increase Saudi Arabia\u2019s sectarian temperature was demonstrated<\/a> last November, when three Saudis and one Qatari linked to Daesh used machines guns and pistols to kill five Saudi Arabian Shi\u2019ite worshippers in the Ahsa district of Dalwah. In contrast to the government\u2019s traditional role of promoting anti-Shi\u2019ite bigotry, Saudi authorities responded<\/a> the following day by shutting down Wesal TV, which had broadcast programs that labeled Shi\u2019ites as \u201crejectionists.\u201d Later than month, Saudi Arabian security forces killed<\/a> three of the four men responsible for the attack and uncovered<\/a> a Daesh-linked cell comprised of 77 members (three came from Jordan, Syria, and Turkey; the rest were Saudi Arabian nationals) that stored the weapons used in the Dalwah attack.<\/p>\n

The threat from Daesh and its sympathizers in the country poses a new security and ideological challenge for Riyadh, which previously faced an al-Qaeda insurgency<\/a> from 2003-2006 that killed hundreds of Saudi Arabians. Yet the authorities’ response to this new menace has not been well received among certain conservative circles within the kingdom.<\/p>\n

The official position of Saudi Arabia – a key Arab member of the U.S.-led military campaign against Daesh in Iraq and Syria – is that Daesh and the Damascus regime must be simultaneously defeated.<\/p>\n

However, some Saudis are not sold. By taking military action against Daesh while not striking against Bashar al-Assad\u2019s forces, they say, Saudi Arabia is aligning itself with Iran, Syria, and Lebanon\u2019s Hezbollah. Some hardline Saudis believe that Daesh deserves Riyadh\u2019s support for serving as a Sunni bulwark against Iranian-backed governments in Baghdad and Damascus. Even some Saudi Sunnis who are opposed to Daesh\u2019s ideology and fearful of the group\u2019s agenda object to the bombing of Sunni Arabs combating the Alawite-led regime in Syria.<\/p>\n

Within this context, the Saudi Arabian government\u2019s treatment of al-Nimr serves to communicate that while Riyadh channels greater resources toward the threat of Sunni extremism, the monarchy has not abandoned efforts to crush all forms of Shi\u2019ite dissent in the restive Eastern Province. It is part of an effort by the government to prevent Daesh from exploiting a perception within hardline Wahhabi circles that Riyadh is becoming “soft” on Shi\u2019ite activism at home and abroad.<\/p>\n

A Shi\u2019ite Backlash on Saudi Arabia\u2019s borders<\/strong><\/p>\n

But that strategy comes at a cost. Al-Nimr\u2019s prosecution and death sentence have triggered an outcry among Shi\u2019ites across the Middle East, leaving little doubt that al-Nimr\u2019s execution would worsen the violent state of sectarian unrest in the region.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s religious establishment in particular has harshly condemned al-Nimr’s sentence. Conservative Iranian ayatollahs – including Jafar Sobhani, Hossein Nuri-Hamadani, and Naser Makarem Shirazi – have warned<\/a> Riyadh that al-Nimr\u2019s execution would produce \u201cunpredictable results\u201d and that \u201csuch cruel actions will have consequences.\u201d Iran\u2019s Fars <\/em>News Agency quoted Ayatollah Ahmad Khatemi, who admonished<\/a> Saudi Arabia\u2019s leadership that \u201cthe execution of this scholar of religion will result in tough and serious repercussions, and it will cost you dearly.\u201d<\/p>\n

Bahraini Shi\u2019ites have held<\/a> protests in solidarity with al-Nimr that resulted in clashes with local police. Militant Shi\u2019ite factions in the island kingdom have also mobilized in response. Last August, Saraya al-Mukhtar – an organization that has pledged solidarity with its Shi\u2019ite counterparts in Saudi Arabia – launched<\/a> an assault near a Bahraini military base, citing al-Nimr\u2019s imprisonment as the motivation.<\/p>\n

The group also issued threats on Facebook against U.S. troops stationed in Bahrain, proclaiming that Washington\u2019s support for the ruling Saudi Arabian and Bahraini monarchies makes the U.S. a legitimate target if al-Nimr is executed. On August 10, the group threatened<\/a> Saudi nationals in Bahrain with a poster warning that \u201charming [al-Nimr] means every single Saudi national will enter our country in a coffin.\u201d<\/p>\n

The following October, the group claimed responsibility for attacks in Sanabis and Aker. \u201cThe occupying mafia of Al Saud and Al Khalifa,” it said<\/a> in a statement referring to the Saudi and Bahraini monarchies, will “face consequences for the death sentence.\u201d Three days later, the Shi\u2019ite faction referred<\/a> to the attacks as \u201crevenge of the Faqih [a scholar in Islamic jurisprudence] Nimr\u201d and claimed<\/a> that the violence targeted the \u201cranks of the enemy occupier,” referring to Saudi Arabia.<\/p>\n

Bahraini officials have painted<\/a> over pictures of al-Nimr that Shi\u2019ites had plastered on walls to demonstrate solidarity with the cleric. Unquestionably, officials in Manama must be concerned about security risks in Bahrain as well if al-Nimr is executed.<\/p>\n

Lebanon\u2019s Hezbollah has not been silent about al-Nimr either. The day after al-Nimr was sentenced to execution, the Lebanese resistance movement condemned<\/a> the ruling as \u201cunfair and politically charged.\u201d In an earlier release, the group issued<\/a> a statement that \u201cThe continued detention of this great scholar and prosecuting him for natural political activities comes while such rights exist for every individual and every scholar and expression of ideas and views is a natural right of all individuals, underlined by all international regulation and divine faiths.\u201d<\/p>\n

Protests against al-Nimr\u2019s death sentence were also held<\/a> outside of Saudi Arabia\u2019s embassy in Yemen\u2019s capital, Sana\u2019a. Ibrahim Bader Al-Deen al-Houthi – the brother of Abdulmalik al-Houthi, the leader<\/a> of Yemen\u2019s Shi’ite Houthi rebels – wrote<\/a> in an online commentary, \u201cWe warn Saudi Arabia against\u2026harming Sheikh al-Nimr in any way.\u201d He also declared<\/a> that \u201cif the Saudi authorities execute al-Nimr, it will be a criminal act that will not go unanswered.\u201d<\/p>\n

Iraqi Shi\u2019ite militias – including Kata\u2019ib Sayyid al-Shuhada (\u201cThe Battalion of the Sayyid’s Martyrs,\u201d or KSS), Kata\u2019ib Hezbollah (\u201cBattalions of the Party of God\u201d), and Asa\u2019ib Ahl al-Haq (\u201cLeague of the Righteous\u201d) – have reacted<\/a> as well. Asa\u2019ib Ahl al-Haq\u2019s political wing in particular warned<\/a> that Saudi Arabia would face \u201cconsequences\u201d for the verdict. Previously, KSS praised Bahraini Shi\u2019ite militant groups\u2019 attacks in the island kingdom, and Kata\u2019ib Hezbollah (not the Lebanese group) launched<\/a> assaults against U.S. armed forces in Iraq, citing Washington\u2019s support for the Bahraini government during the Shi\u2019ite uprising of 2011 as justification.<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia and Iran\u2019s Rivalry<\/strong><\/p>\n

The flames of sectarian violence have wreaked havoc across the Levant and Arabian Peninsula. Bahrain, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen continue to serve as sensitive proxy battlegrounds in Saudi Arabia and Iran\u2019s geopolitical rivalry.<\/p>\n

Riyadh has backed Sunni forces in these countries with the intention of countering Tehran\u2019s influence in the Arab world, which grew substantially after Saddam Hussein\u2019s regime fell in 2003. The country played a pivotal role in sending its youth into Syria to wage a \u201choly war\u201d against the secular Alawite regime in Damascus and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah.<\/p>\n

Daesh\u2019s rise to power last year, however, demonstrated that Riyadh\u2019s sectarian foreign policy has backfired against the kingdom\u2019s interests. Interestingly, while Saudi Arabia and Iran maintain opposing interests in Syria and Iraq\u2019s political futures, the two states indeed share a common interest in defeating Daesh, which controls swathes of Iraqi territory near both countries’ borders. Recent diplomatic overtures between Riyadh and Tehran, following the 2013 election of the moderate Iranian president Hassan Rouhani, have prompted speculation that the mutual threat of Daesh will pave the way for a thaw in Saudi Arabian-Iranian relations.<\/p>\n

Yet if a rapprochement between the two rivals is in the works, al-Nimr\u2019s execution would surely derail it. If Saudi Arabia executes al-Nimr, which would make him the first<\/a> Muslim cleric to receive the death penalty in the kingdom, Iranian officials would have to respond in some form, as the Islamic Republic fashions itself as the heart of modern day Shi\u2019ism. Additionally, new threats to Saudi Arabia will arise from other countries on its borders as various groups who revere al-Nimr would feel obligated to strike against the state or its interests abroad.<\/p>\n

Within the oil-rich Eastern Province, there is a possibility that Saudi Hezbollah (which is also distinct from the Lebanese group) could reemerge as a force capable of wreaking havoc, posing graver security challenges for the ruling monarchy. Indeed, in the late 1980s, Saudi Hezbollah bombed energy infrastructure in the kingdom and waged an assassination<\/a> campaign that targeted Saudi Arabian diplomats in Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey in response to the killing<\/a> of hundreds of Iranian pilgrims who traveled to Saudi Arabia for the Hajj in 1987 and the beheading of four Saudi Hezbollah members.<\/p>\n

As officials in Riyadh decide what steps to take toward al-Nimr, they must be cautious about the possibility of Shi\u2019ite militias carrying out future attacks against the ruling monarchy. Indeed, reports have surfaced of Shi\u2019ite militants striking first against Saudi security forces in the Eastern Province. If true, al-Nimr\u2019s execution would only serve to exacerbate the dangerous state of relations between the Sunni monarchy and the kingdom\u2019s 3 million Shi\u2019ites at a time when Saudi Arabia faces a growing security threat from Daesh in Iraq and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula in Yemen.<\/p>\n

Ideally, Saudi Arabia\u2019s authorities will conclude that they must spare al-Nimr\u2019s life to prevent sectarian unrest from further escalating in eastern Saudi Arabia and the greater Middle East. Until that decision is made, al-Nimr\u2019s fate will hang like a sword of Damocles over the region\u2019s already volatile geopolitical environment.<\/p>\n

Giorgio Cafiero is the founder of Gulf State Analytics<\/a> (GSA). <\/em>Reprinted with permission from Foreign Policy In Focus<\/a>.<\/i><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Last October, Saudi Arabia\u2019s Special Criminal Court sentenced Sheikh Nimr Baqir al-Nimr – a popular Shi\u2019ite cleric and outspoken political dissident – to death. This was not an ordinary criminal trial, even considering Saudi Arabia’s liberal use of capital punishment. Among other charges, the prosecutor sought to convict al-Nimr of \u201cwaging war on God\u201d and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":224,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"coauthors":[],"class_list":["post-24774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"meta_box":{"disable_donate_message":"","custom_donate_message":"","subtitle":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/224"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24774"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24774\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24775,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24774\/revisions\/24775"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24774"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=24774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}