{"id":45616,"date":"2024-01-25T08:37:51","date_gmt":"2024-01-25T16:37:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/?p=45616"},"modified":"2024-01-25T08:37:51","modified_gmt":"2024-01-25T16:37:51","slug":"to-biden-avoiding-a-third-world-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/2024\/01\/25\/to-biden-avoiding-a-third-world-war\/","title":{"rendered":"To Biden: Avoiding a Third World War"},"content":{"rendered":"

ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR:<\/b> The President
\nFROM:<\/b> Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
\nSUBJECT: <\/b>Throwing Good Money After Bad: Decisions in an Intelligence Vacuum<\/p>\n

Dear President Biden:<\/p>\n

We noted in our January 26, <\/b>2023 Memorandum<\/a> to you that National Intelligence Director Avril Haines had expressed skepticism that Russian forces would be sufficiently prepared for Ukraine\u2019s coming offensive. She said Russia was using up ammunition \u201cextraordinarily quickly\u201d and could not indigenously produce what it was expending.<\/p>\n

You had just approved sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine. We wrote:<\/p>\n

\u201cNone of the newly promised weaponry will stop Russia from defeating what\u2019s left of the Ukrainian army. If you have been told otherwise, replace your intelligence and military advisers with competent professionals \u2013 the sooner the better.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Russia Has Not Already Lost<\/b><\/p>\n

On July 13, 2023, you said Putin \u201chas already lost the war\u201d. You may have gotten that from C.I.A. Director William Burns who, a week before, wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post<\/i> saying: \u201cPutin\u2019s war has already been a strategic failure for Russia \u2013 its military weaknesses laid bare.\u201d Both statements are incorrect. Nor is the war a \u201cstalemate\u201d, as Jake Sullivan has claimed more recently.<\/p>\n

Ukraine has lost the war, and this will become very clear in the weeks ahead. Given the lack of any prospect for negotiations, nothing short of nuclear weapons could stop the measured but inexorable advance of Russian forces. You have said you want to avoid World War III. That\u2019s what nukes (including \u201cmini\u201d ones) would mean.<\/p>\n

Wooden-Headedness<\/b><\/p>\n

At this historic juncture, we might seek what wisdom historians might offer. Here is Barbara Tuchman in her highly relevant book, The March of Folly: From Troy to Vietnam<\/em>:<\/p>\n

\u201cWooden-headedness\u2026 consists in assessing a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions while ignoring or rejecting any contrary signs. It is acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

As an example, Tuchman offered 16th<\/sup> century Philip II of Spain: \u201cNo experience of the failure of his policy could shake his belief in its essential excellence.\u201d In the end, Philip amassed too much power and drained state revenues by failed adventures overseas, leading to Spain\u2019s decline.<\/p>\n

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin\u2019s appeal Tuesday to U.S. allies to \u201cdig deep\u201d to provide Ukraine with more arms has the ring of wooden-headedness. It also brings to mind a more colloquial quip: \u201cWhen you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.\u201d<\/p>\n

Obama\u2019s Take<\/b><\/p>\n

We do not have to go back five centuries to Philip II. As you will recall, President Obama faced down bipartisan pressure to send arms to Ukraine. According to The New York Times<\/i>, he warned aides \u201cthat arming the Ukrainians would encourage the notion that they could actually defeat the far more powerful Russians, and so it would potentially draw a more forceful response from Moscow.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lastly, attempts to dismiss President Vladimir Putin as paranoid don\u2019t pass the smell test. Putin has heard from the lips of Secretary Austin:<\/p>\n

\u201cOne of the U.S.\u2019s goals in Ukraine is to see a weakened Russia. \u2026 The U.S. is ready to move heaven and earth to help Ukraine win the war against Russia.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Our closing warning of a year ago seems worth repeating:<\/p>\n

\u201cCan the U.S. achieve Austin\u2019s goal? Not without using nuclear weapons.<\/em><\/p>\n

Thus, there is a large conceptual \u2013 and exceptionally dangerous \u2013 disconnect. Simply stated, it is not possible to \u2018win the war against Russia\u2019 AND avoid WWIII. That our Defense Secretary Austin may think this possible is downright scary. In any case, the Kremlin has to assume he thinks so. Thus, it is a very dangerous delusion.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

Willing to Help<\/b><\/p>\n

Lastly, we are about to re-issue our quadrennial offer to be of assistance to all presidential candidates. This would, of course, include you.<\/p>\n

For the Steering Group, <\/b>Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)<\/b>
\n<\/b><\/i><\/p>\n