{"id":46762,"date":"2024-03-24T14:56:47","date_gmt":"2024-03-24T22:56:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/?p=46762"},"modified":"2024-03-24T14:57:21","modified_gmt":"2024-03-24T22:57:21","slug":"veteran-intelligence-professionals-for-sanity-the-french-road-to-nuclear-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/2024\/03\/24\/veteran-intelligence-professionals-for-sanity-the-french-road-to-nuclear-war\/","title":{"rendered":"Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity<\/I>: The French Road to Nuclear War"},"content":{"rendered":"

This originally appeared on Consortium News<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

France could be leading the American people down a path toward a nuclear conflict decidedly not in the interests of the American people \u2013 or of humanity itself, VIPS warns President Joe Biden.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\n

\"\"<\/a>U.S. President Joe Biden preparing to disembark Marine One, July 2021. (White House, Adam Schultz)<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

March 24, 2024<\/p>\n

ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR:<\/b> The President
\nFROM:<\/b> Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity
\nSUBJECT:<\/b> On the Brink of Nuclear War<\/p>\n

Mr. President:<\/strong><\/p>\n

France is reportedly preparing to dispatch a force of some 2,000 troops \u2013 roughly a reinforced brigade built around an armored battalion and two mechanized battalions, with supporting logistical, engineering, and artillery troops attached \u2013 into Ukraine sometime in the not-so-distant future.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

This force is purely symbolic, inasmuch as it would have zero survivability in a modern high-intensity conflict of the scope and scale of what is transpiring in Ukraine today. It would not be deployed directly in a conflict zone, but would serve either as (1) a screening force\/tripwire to stop Russia\u2019s advance; or (2) a replacement force deployed to a non-active zone to free up Ukrainian soldiers for combat duty. The French Brigade reportedly will be supplemented by smaller units from the Baltic states.<\/p>\n

This would be introducing combat troops of a NATO country into a theater of war, making them \u201clawful targets\u201d under the Law of War.<\/p>\n

Such units would apparently lack a NATO mandate. In Russia\u2019s view, however, this may be a distinction without a difference. France appears to be betting \u2013 naively \u2013 that its membership in NATO would prevent Russia from attacking French troops. Rather, it is highly likely that Russia would attack any French\/Baltic contingent in Ukraine and quickly destroy\/degrade its combat viability.<\/p>\n

In that case, French President Macron may calculate that, after Russian attacks on the troops of NATO members \u2013 NATO mandate or not \u2013 he could invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter and get the NATO alliance to intervene. Such intervention would likely take the form of aircraft operating from NATO nations \u2013 and perhaps include interdiction missions against tactical <\/i>targets inside Russia.<\/p>\n

On Precipice of Nuclear War?<\/b><\/p>\n

Doctrinally, and by legal right, Russia\u2019s response would be to launch retaliatory strikes also against targets in NATO countries. If NATO then attacks strategic<\/i> targets inside Russia, at that point Russia\u2019s nuclear doctrine takes over, and NATO decision-making centers would be hit with nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n

We do not believe Russia will initiate a nuclear attack against the U.S., but rather would leave it up to the United States to decide if it wants to risk destruction by preparing to launch a nuclear strike on Russia. That said, Russian strategic forces have improved to the point that, in some areas \u2013 hypersonic missiles, for example \u2013 its capability surpasses that of the U.S. and NATO.<\/p>\n

In other words, the Russian temptation to strike first may be a bit stronger than during past crises, and we are somewhat less confident that Russia would want to \u201cgo second\u201d. Another disquieting factor is that the Russians are likely to believe that Macron\u2019s folly has the tacit approval of some key U.S. and other Western officials, who seem desperate to find some way to alter the trajectory of the war in Ukraine \u2013 the more so, as elections draw near.<\/p>\n

What Needs to Be Done<\/b><\/p>\n

Europe needs to understand that France is leading it down a path of inevitable self-destruction.<\/p>\n

The American people need to understand that Europe is leading them to the cusp of nuclear annihilation.<\/p>\n

Since Russian leaders may suspect that Macron is working hand in glove with Washington, the U.S. needs to make its position publicly and unambiguously clear.<\/p>\n

And if France and the Baltics insist on sending troops into Ukraine, it must also be made clear that such action has no NATO mandate; that Article 5 will not be triggered by any Russian retaliation; and that the U.S. nuclear arsenal, including those nuclear weapons that are part of the NATO deterrent force, will not be employed as a result of any Russian military action against French or Baltic troops.<\/p>\n

Void of such clarity, France would be leading the American people down a path toward a nuclear conflict decidedly not in the interests of the American people \u2013 or of humanity itself.<\/p>\n

FOR THE STEERING GROUP,
\n<\/b>VETERAN INTELLIGENCE PROFESSIONALS FOR SANITY<\/b><\/p>\n