{"id":53935,"date":"2025-06-24T15:18:05","date_gmt":"2025-06-24T23:18:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/?p=53935"},"modified":"2025-06-24T15:18:05","modified_gmt":"2025-06-24T23:18:05","slug":"the-israel-us-proxy-war-for-regime-change-in-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/2025\/06\/24\/the-israel-us-proxy-war-for-regime-change-in-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"The Israel\/US Proxy War for Regime Change in Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

Only days ago, President Trump reiterated that Iran will never have nuclear weapons. Yet, according to US intelligence assessments, Iran was up to three years away<\/a> from being able to produce and deliver a nuclear weapon. While Israel built its case for war, the US didn\u2019t buy it<\/a>. The problem is that Trump did.<\/p>\n

In the process, a misguided concept of Israel\u2019s national security morphed into an even more twisted view of US national security. Ironically, Iran is a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which Israel shuns.<\/p>\n

Only days ago, the leaders of the G7 countries issued a joint statement<\/a> stating Iran should not have nuclear weapons and affirming Israel\u2019s right to defend itself. After October 7, 2023, these countries resorted to a similar argument, which then paved the way to Israel\u2019s genocidal atrocities in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank.<\/p>\n

Only days ago, the Trump administration insisted it was working for a peaceful resolution in the US-Iran talks, opposing the Netanyahu war cabinet\u2019s unilateral military plans. Yet, by June 17, President Trump said the US demanded Iran\u2019s \u201cUNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER.\u201d Threatening the life of Iranian Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei<\/a>, he was considering \u201call options,\u201d including a potential US strike against Iran.<\/p>\n

Reminiscent of the West\u2019s imperialist cartels in the late 19th<\/sup> century, this is what the much-touted international \u201crules-based order\u201d looks like in the early 21st<\/sup> century, when the gloves are off and might makes right at the expense of the Global South.<\/p>\n

The deception campaign \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Not so long ago, the Iran-US negotiations still appeared to be promising. But expectations were revised almost overnight on Thursday June 12, when the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iran wasn\u2019t complying<\/a> with its nuclear obligations. That triggered a slate of diplomatic efforts to restore the UN sanctions on Tehran later this year.<\/p>\n

Oddly, only a week before, Iran\u2019s state broadcaster IRIB reported Iranian intelligence services had obtained a large volume of sensitive material from Israel, including documents on its secretive nuclear and strategic facilities. As international debate amounted on the IAEA compliance issues, Iranian media began releasing images of the documents related to Israel\u2019s nuclear program obtained by Tehran, claiming collusion between the IAEA and Israel<\/a>.<\/p>\n

On Friday June 13, Israel began a major military operation against Iran, including air strikes and reported covert action. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to continue attacks for \u201cas many days as it takes\u201d presumably targeting \u201cexistential threats\u201d posed by Iran\u2019s nuclear program and ballistic missiles.<\/p>\n

In a letter to the United Nations, Iran\u2019s foreign minister described Israel\u2019s attack as a \u201cdeclaration of war,\u201d calling on the UN Security Council to immediately address the issue.<\/p>\n

These perilous developments, which Europe too is supporting<\/a>, are taking place against the backdrop of the continuing US\/NATO-led proxy war in Ukraine against Russia<\/a> and Israel\u2019s genocidal atrocities in Gaza and ethnic cleansing in the West Bank.<\/a><\/p>\n

Concurrently, U.S. diplomacy, including Special Envoy Witkoff\u2019s talks and President Trump\u2019s personal reassurances, have served as a bilateral ploy, basically to cover for the Israeli surprise attack<\/a>. Building on disinformation, the deception campaign has reaped extraordinary short-term benefits. By the same token, it is likely to undermine US\u2019s international credibility for years to come.<\/p>\n

Neutralizing the Axis of Resistance\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Ever since the Islamic Revolution, when President Carter froze billions of dollars in Iranian assets, Washington has sought to restore the pre-1979 status quo ante<\/em> in Iran. It was the Shah\u2019s rule that made Iran safe to American capitalism in the postwar era, thanks to the US-UK coup in 1953, US military aid and SAVAK, Iran\u2019s dreaded secret police, partly trained by Israel.<\/p>\n

Nonetheless, US regime-change initiatives moved to a new stage during the Bush Jr. administration. Since 2003, US Army has conducted an analysis called TIRANNT (Theater Iran Near-Term)<\/a> for a full-scale war with Iran.<\/p>\n

At the turn of the 2010s, the US and Israel deployed the Stuxnet virus, the world\u2019s first offensive cyber weapon, to destroy almost a fifth of Iran\u2019s nuclear centrifuges.<\/p>\n

In 2015, years of challenging talks resulted in a nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) between Iran, the US and a set of world powers. Despite Iran\u2019s adherence to it, the Trump administration, in its anti-Obama zeal, pulled the US out of the deal in 2018.<\/p>\n

The ultimate objective has been the obliteration of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance in the region. Hence, the Biden and Trump administrations\u2019 tacit acceptance of Israel\u2019s obliteration of Gaza, the destruction of Hezbollah\u2019s footholds in Southern Lebanon, the efforts to rule-and-divide in Syria and Iraq, and the bombing of the Houthis in Yemen (Figure 1<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

Figure 1: Western view: Iran\u2019s Axis of Resistance<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Source: Master Strategist\/Axis of Resistance, CC BY-SA<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

US-led \u201cnormalization\u201d vs. Chinese development\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Following the first Trump administration, the Biden cabinet struggled to have Saudi leaders establish diplomatic ties with Israel. There was talk about a security deal with the US, modeled loosely on the US-Japan mutual defense pact, with cooperation in a civilian nuclear program.<\/p>\n

Preceded by Israel\u2019s peace treaties with Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) and the Oslo Accords with the Palestinian Authority (1993-95), Biden\u2019s \u201cgrand bargain\u201d was predicated on Trump\u2019s Abraham Accords (2020-2021)<\/a> between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan, respectively.<\/p>\n

Like most of the Middle East, Saudi Arabia seeks both US and Chinese benefits. It has joined the BRICS alliance, remains one of China\u2019s largest oil suppliers and is selling oil in multiple currencies. It is also the world\u2019s second-largest arms importer and 74 percent of those weapons come from the US<\/a>. That\u2019s the leverage the US administrations have tried to use to limit Riyadh\u2019s cooperation with Beijing on trade, technology and military matters.<\/p>\n

Unlike the US, Beijing has invested significantly in the Middle East, defused tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, unified Palestinian forces and launched a historic strategic partnership with Egypt. The launch of another Silk Road ensued after major Chinese investments in Saudi Arabian stocks and the signing of memorandums of understanding worth $50 billion with six major Chinese financial institutions.<\/p>\n

The US seeks exclusive military partnerships, whereas China builds inclusive economic alliances. Iran is the latest flashpoint of these conflicting goals.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s huge untapped oil and gas reserves\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

In the White House, regime change in Iran is seen as tempting, due to Iran\u2019s huge regional economic and geopolitical importance. Connecting the Persian Gulf with the Arabian Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, is one of the world\u2019s most important oil chokepoints<\/a>. Flows through the Strait make up over one-quarter of global seaborne traded oil. In addition, one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade transits the Strait annually. It is Iran\u2019s insurance.<\/p>\n

Iran is also the OPEC\u2019s fourth-largest crude oil producer and the world\u2019s third-largest dry natural gas producer. Most importantly, it holds some of the world\u2019s largest deposits of proved oil and natural gas reserves<\/a>. It is these lucrative resources that have paced the West\u2019s external interventions in the country for a century (Figure 2<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

Figure 2: Iran\u2019s largest oil and natural gas fields<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Source: EIA<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

China has exclusive rights to several Iranian oil and natural gas fields. As part of a 2016-2017 agreement, Beijing cautioned it would regard any foreign attack on these areas as attacks on its own sovereign territory. Two years later, Iran joined China\u2019s Belt and Road (BRI) initiative. In March 2021, the two countries signed a 25-year and $400-billion strategic cooperation agreement.<\/p>\n

Based on tanker tracking data, China imports nearly 90% of Iran\u2019s crude oil and condensate exports, up from 25% in 2017, the year before US-led sanctions were re-imposed.<\/p>\n

Dire, direr and direst scenarios\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/strong><\/p>\n

Three years ago, the escalation of the proxy war in Ukraine drove Brent oil prices to record levels. Except for a brief spike amid Israel\u2019s Gaza offensive, oil prices had halved from $120 to $60 in early May, even as gold continues to soar. In the past week, Israel\u2019s attacks against Iran fueled the prices up to $77 (Figure<\/strong> 3<\/strong>).<\/p>\n

Figure 3: Dramatic gold rallies, mild oil spikes<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Source: Tradingeconomics, author, June 17, 2025<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n

Until recently, this status quo was in line with the investment banks\u2019 base case,<\/em> which is premised on a limited strike scenario. In this narrative, Iran\u2019s response stays moderate, elevated Israel\/US-Iran tensions will not explode and trade routes remain largely unaffected. Except for brief spikes, Brent oil won\u2019t exceed $75 per barrel.<\/p>\n

This status quo is now at crossroads. When President Trump left the G7 Summit prematurely, he suggested he wasn\u2019t looking for just ceasefire in the Middle East, but \u201cA real end<\/a>.\u201d With further escalation, the White House is now setting the stage for a new, direr status quo.<\/p>\n

In an elevated<\/em> scenario, Iran will engage in heavier than anticipated retaliation (which has not happened), but Israel will continue its offensive and the Trump administration flirts with escalation. However, all actors still seek to avoid a full-scale regional conflict, which will become challenging as human and economic costs climb and if oil prices exceed $100.<\/p>\n

Ignoring the sober advice of his own head of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, Trump has single-handedly dragged the conflict closer to a broad and protracted conflict <\/em>scenario. That has potential to involve not just Israel and Iran but the US, as evidenced by the Pentagon\u2019s ongoing huge asset transfers into the region. In the absence of restraints, the consequent damage of regional energy infrastructure could prove extensive and result in blockages of chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz. In such a scenario, oil prices could trade around $100-$150, with spikes even above $150.<\/p>\n

It is still another unwarranted proxy war, but one in which global economic prospects would not be unaffected.<\/p>\n

The author of <\/em>The Fall of Israel<\/em> (2025), Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally-renowned visionary of the multipolar world and <\/em>the founder of Difference Group. He has served at the India, China and America Institute (USA), Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore<\/em>). For more, see <\/em>https:\/\/www.differencegroup.net<\/em><\/a><\/p>\n

The original version was published by China-US Focus on June 19, 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Only days ago, President Trump reiterated that Iran will never have nuclear weapons. Yet, according to US intelligence assessments, Iran was up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver a nuclear weapon. While Israel built its case for war, the US didn\u2019t buy it. The problem is that Trump did. In […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":609,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"none","_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"coauthors":[915],"class_list":["post-53935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"meta_box":{"disable_donate_message":"","custom_donate_message":"","subtitle":"The Israel\/US Iran offensive is not about nuclear weapons. It is about still another unwarranted proxy war. It aims at the restoration of the pre-1979 Iran."},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53935","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/609"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=53935"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53935\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":53938,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/53935\/revisions\/53938"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=53935"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=53935"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=53935"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=53935"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}