{"id":58276,"date":"2026-03-25T13:36:07","date_gmt":"2026-03-25T21:36:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/?p=58276"},"modified":"2026-03-25T13:36:07","modified_gmt":"2026-03-25T21:36:07","slug":"john-mearsheimer-on-up-the-escalation-ladder","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/2026\/03\/25\/john-mearsheimer-on-up-the-escalation-ladder\/","title":{"rendered":"John Mearsheimer on Up the Escalation Ladder"},"content":{"rendered":"

Reprinted from John’s Substack<\/a>:\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

On 18 March 2026, I was on the \u201cDeep Dive\u201d with Lt. Col. (ret.) Danny Davis naturally talking about the Iran war. We paid a lot of attention to the danger of further escalation and tanking the world economy.<\/p>\n

We are at an especially dangerous point, because Israel \u2014 acting against US wishes according to President Trump \u2014 just bombed a gas processing facility in Iran\u2019s South Pars gas fields, which prompted Iran to announce that it was going to hit oil and gas installations in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. In fact, Iran has already retaliated by hitting the world\u2019s largest liquid natural gas facility in Qatar. The consequences of this escalation is likely to drive the price of a barrel of crude oil well above $100, which might do significant damage to the international economy.<\/p>\n

Danny and I also talked about 1) Israel\u2019s decapitation strategy, 2) the likelihood that the US and Israel can successfully swoop into Iran and capture the 60 percent enriched uranium that Tehran possesses, 3) the prospects of the US Navy clearing the Strait of Hormuz, and 4) whether President Trump has a viable exit strategy.<\/p>\n