{"id":59534,"date":"2026-05-29T03:00:36","date_gmt":"2026-05-29T11:00:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/?p=59534"},"modified":"2026-05-29T03:00:36","modified_gmt":"2026-05-29T11:00:36","slug":"vips-memo-avoiding-catastrophic-failure-in-cuba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/2026\/05\/29\/vips-memo-avoiding-catastrophic-failure-in-cuba\/","title":{"rendered":"VIPS MEMO: Avoiding Catastrophic Failure in Cuba"},"content":{"rendered":"

WARNING TO THE PRESIDENT: U.S.-driven \u201cregime collapse\u201d and imposition of a government of our choosing will fail badly. The same people who keep \u201957 Chevrolets on the road with a coat hanger will wreak havoc against a foreign-imposed regime.<\/strong><\/p>\n

ALERT MEMORANDUM FOR: <\/b>The President
\nFROM: <\/b>Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
\nSUBJECT: <\/b>Avoiding Catastrophic Failure in Cuba<\/p>\n

Dear President Trump:<\/strong><\/p>\n

We are deeply concerned that the current U.S. approach to Cuba makes an ugly humanitarian disaster \u2013 for which the U.S. will be responsible \u2013 increasingly likely. We also believe that any military option will draw us into a losing war.<\/p>\n

Cuba is not Venezuela. U.S. relations with Cuba have never been good, even before Fidel Castro\u2019s rise in 1959. Washington has never grasped Cubans\u2019 deep national pride and yearning for sovereignty, nor their culture of respect for institutions. Whether we like it or not, the government has residual legitimacy, and even Cubans wanting significant change will rally behind the flag if there is an attack from outside.<\/p>\n

The Cuban people are indeed suffering, but reports alleging broad popular support for U.S. sanctions and even military intervention are heavily colored by people who are in the pay of the USG. Given the false choice between living under the current government with U.S. \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d sanctions and living under a new system, some Cubans would indeed opt for change.\u00a0 Even those who want major change in Cuba do not trust the U.S. The 65-year embargo and the ongoing oil blockade are sources of deep, if latent, suspicions toward us.<\/p>\n

The language in Executive Orders dated 29 January and 1 May, alleging that \u201cthe policies, practices, and actions of the Government of Cuba constitute an unusual and extraordinary threat\u201d to U.S. national security, suggests confusion between reality and politically motivated allegations. These narratives are mostly fake.<\/p>\n