{"id":59806,"date":"2026-06-19T16:13:23","date_gmt":"2026-06-20T00:13:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/?p=59806"},"modified":"2026-06-19T16:13:23","modified_gmt":"2026-06-20T00:13:23","slug":"israel-lebanon-and-the-fragility-of-the-mou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/2026\/06\/19\/israel-lebanon-and-the-fragility-of-the-mou\/","title":{"rendered":"Israel, Lebanon, and the Fragility of the MoU"},"content":{"rendered":"

Flanked by French President Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump triumphantly signed<\/a> the official U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) on Wednesday night in Versailles. This move reflects a dramatic shift in tone from the president, who decided to take steps toward ending this war with Iran amid economic and military pressure.<\/p>\n

The statements from the Trump administration \u2013 specifically JD Vance \u2013 have been promising over the past few days, and there seems to be a quiet acceptance of reality within the White House of how disastrous this war has been.<\/p>\n

I do believe we should support the administration\u2019s efforts \u2013 to the extent that they are genuine \u2013 to end this war. To be very clear, this does not mean we must forget the lies they have told us. This also doesn\u2019t mean we mask our anger with them for launching this war to begin with.<\/p>\n

In regard to JD Vance, it also doesn\u2019t mean we ought to support him in 2028. His behavior since this war began has been beyond disqualifying.<\/p>\n

With all of this being said, I do believe that while the administration is seeking to end this war, we should root for their efforts to succeed. If we truly care about peace, and if we truly view a continuation of this war as a resumption of mass murder, then how could we move forward in any other way?<\/p>\n

Skepticism is a fair response<\/strong><\/p>\n

Despite the optimism of the past few days, there are many reasons to remain skeptical that a lasting peace is near. For one, this administration has lied to us time and time again throughout this war. We would be foolish not to remain vigilant. Secondly, and maybe more urgently, this deal is incredibly fragile. This is because the very first paragraph<\/a> of it requires that the Israelis end their conflict in Lebanon and withdraw their troops:<\/p>\n

\u201cThe United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is a capitulation to long held Iranian demands that not only must Israel cease their bombardment of Lebanon, but they also must end their military occupation of the southern part of the country and withdraw from Lebanese territory.<\/p>\n

Considering the vast amount of support the U.S. has provided to Israel throughout its existence and considering the fact that Israel\u2019s aggressive regional posture can only be maintained with continued U.S. backing, you may think that our \u201cgreatest ally\u201d would be inclined to be agreeable in order to keep us happy. If the neocon\u2019s description of the U.S.-Israel relationship were accurate, then we would expect to see Israel eagerly waiting for the next opportunity to help us achieve our interests in the region.<\/p>\n

This is not the case.<\/p>\n

Israel has made it clear that they do not intend to abide by this agreement.<\/p>\n

Israel\u2019s war on Lebanon<\/strong><\/p>\n

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said<\/a> again on Wednesday, as he has said for months, that IDF troops will remain in Lebanon:<\/p>\n

\u201cWe will restore security and prosperity to northern towns. That requires maintaining the security zone in southern Lebanon; it requires that we not leave there, as long as Israel\u2019s security needs require it.\u201d<\/p>\n

The radical elements within Netanyahu\u2019s political coalition have been even more provocative in the way they have spoken out against Trump. Itamar Ben-Gvir said<\/a> on X:<\/p>\n

\u201cTrump’s agreement does not bind us. Israel is not subject to the United States, and we are an independent and sovereign nation!\u201d<\/p>\n

Of course, despite the claims of \u201cindependence,\u201d the entire operation in Lebanon would not be possible without U.S. financial and military support. You aren\u2019t supposed to question this absurd arrangement, though.<\/p>\n

This is where the MoU becomes incredibly fragile. If peace is to win the day, Donald Trump must first reign in the Israelis.<\/p>\n

Despite this being a task which this administration has previously been unwilling to undertake, there have been some statements made this week which signal that at the very least, there are some within Trump\u2019s orbit who understand the dynamics at play here.<\/p>\n

Specifically, JD Vance has been quite explicit in his frustration with the Israelis, saying<\/a> in a press conference Wednesday:<\/p>\n

\u201cI guess my message to them would be twofold. Number one, Donald J. Trump is the only head of state in the entire world who is sympathetic to the nation of Israel at this moment in time, and he happens to be the head of state of the world\u2019s superpower. If I was in the cabinet of the Israeli government, I might not be attacking the only powerful ally that I have anywhere left in the entire world.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is quite the statement from the vice president, as he is acknowledging the historic unpopularity of Israel. This is also one of the few times a U.S. official has been willing to publicly exercise leverage over Israel, at least rhetorically.<\/p>\n

In this same press conference, Vance further emphasized<\/a> Israel\u2019s reliance on America for their survival:<\/p>\n

\u201cOver the last three months, two-thirds of the defensive weapons that have protected your homeland have been built by American hands and paid for by American tax dollars. The problem for Israel is not Donald J. Trump, and anybody in Israel who thinks their biggest problem is the president of the United States needs to wake up and smell the reality of the situation that country is in.\u201d<\/p>\n

The key word to note here is \u201creality.\u201d Reality is something that both the U.S. and Israeli governments have refused to acknowledge for many decades.<\/p>\n

The reality of the U.S.-Israel relationship is that our interests and those of Israel are, despite the propaganda narrative, vastly different. For example, while it may have been in Israel\u2019s interest to overthrow Bashar al-Assad in Syria and install Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, it may not have been in America\u2019s interests. This is mainly because al-Sharaa is a former al-Qaeda member<\/a>, who was previously held in Camp Bucca,<\/a> a notorious U.S.-run prison in Iraq.<\/p>\n

Can the MoU survive?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The U.S. is seeking to achieve a peace deal with Iran and end this war. This is because the war has caused massive economic pain globally and it is best for the U.S. to leave the conflict before it worsens. However, once again, Israeli interests are directly at odds with ours.<\/p>\n

Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Likud Party in Israel have had a long-standing goal of overthrowing neighboring regimes hostile to their expansionist project, with their final enemy being the Iranian regime. The Israelis have spent decades attempting to convince American presidents to go to war with Iran, and every time they have refused due to the military realities not being in our favor. Donald Trump, in what will go down as the biggest mistake of his political career, decided to go for it.<\/p>\n

Now, almost four months since this war began, we can see clearly that it has been a strategic blunder. Due to the U.S. having exhausted all military capabilities short of invasion, and the global economy nearing catastrophe, Donald Trump finally seems to be ready to exit the conflict. This has angered the Israelis.<\/p>\n

Israel is intent on seeing this through to the end. Netanyahu has not come all this way just to allow the U.S. president to simply end the war without a fight, especially when the memorandum of understanding is as favorable to Iran as it is. For this reason, he will seek to create regional chaos which will force the U.S. back into the conflict on Israel\u2019s behalf.<\/p>\n

The easiest way we can see this happening is in Lebanon. Again, according to the MoU, Israel must end their strikes on Lebanon and leave the country. Israel is refusing. So, now what?<\/p>\n

Iran has threatened to retaliate, and they showcased their willingness to do so just a few weeks ago in response to Israeli strikes in Beirut.<\/a> Will Iran retaliate against continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon now that the MoU is in effect? What then? Will the U.S. jump in to defend Israel, despite their unwillingness to assist in our peace process?<\/p>\n

These are the questions we should be asking, as they expose the fragility of this memorandum of understanding.<\/p>\n

Nolan Denaro is a political commentator, writer, libertarian, and host of “The Quest For Clarity” podcast, which can be found on YouTube and Spotify. His work has been seen on Antiwar.com<\/a>, and he writes on his personal Substack, which can be found at nolandenaro.substack.com. He<\/span><\/span>\u00a0can be reached for correspondence by email at<\/span><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/span>nolansdenaro@icloud.com<\/a>.<\/span><\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Flanked by French President Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump triumphantly signed the official U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) on Wednesday night in Versailles. This move reflects a dramatic shift in tone from the president, who decided to take steps toward ending this war with Iran amid economic and military pressure. The statements from the Trump administration […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":707,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_seopress_titles_title":"","_seopress_titles_desc":"","_seopress_robots_index":"","_seopress_robots_follow":"","_seopress_robots_imageindex":"","_seopress_robots_snippet":"","_seopress_robots_primary_cat":"","_seopress_robots_breadcrumbs":"","_seopress_robots_freeze_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_custom_modified_date":"","_seopress_robots_canonical":"","_seopress_social_fb_title":"","_seopress_social_fb_desc":"","_seopress_social_fb_img":"","_seopress_social_fb_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_fb_img_height":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_title":"","_seopress_social_twitter_desc":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img":"","_seopress_social_twitter_img_attachment_id":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_width":0,"_seopress_social_twitter_img_height":0,"_seopress_redirections_value":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled":"","_seopress_redirections_enabled_regex":"","_seopress_redirections_logged_status":"","_seopress_redirections_param":"","_seopress_redirections_type":0,"_seopress_analysis_target_kw":"","_seopress_news_disabled":"","_seopress_video_disabled":"","_seopress_video":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas_manual":[],"_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable_all":"","_seopress_pro_rich_snippets_disable":[],"_seopress_pro_schemas":[],"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_social_image_id":0,"_social_image_url":"","_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"coauthors":[1398],"class_list":["post-59806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"meta_box":{"disable_donate_message":"0","custom_donate_message":"","_social_image_id":"","subtitle":"Can the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding survive Israel's assault on Lebanon?"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/707"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59806"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59806\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":59808,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59806\/revisions\/59808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59806"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.antiwar.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/coauthors?post=59806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}