Is the surge an orchestrated distraction from
the real war plan?
A good case can be made that it is. The US Congress and media are focused
on President Bush’s proposal for an increase of 20,000 US troops in Iraq, while
Israel and its American neoconservative allies prepare an assault on Iran.
Commentators have expressed puzzlement over President Bush’s appointment of
a US Navy admiral as commander in charge of the ground wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
The appointment makes sense only if the administration’s attention has shifted
from the insurgencies to an attack on Iran.
The Bush administration has recently doubled its aircraft carrier forces and
air power in the Persian Gulf. According to credible news reports, the Israeli
air force has been making practice runs in preparation for an attack on Iran.
Recently, Israeli military and political leaders have described Israeli machinations
to manipulate the American public and their representatives into supporting
or joining an Israeli assault on Iran.
Two US carrier task forces or strike groups will certainly congest the Persian
Gulf. On January 9, a US nuclear sub collided with a Japanese tanker in the
Persian Gulf. Two carrier groups will have scant room for maneuver. Their purpose
is either to provide the means for a hard hit on Iran or to serve as sitting
ducks for a new Pearl Harbor that would rally Americans behind the new war.
Whether our ships are hit by Iran in retaliation to an attack from Israel or
suffer an orchestrated attack by Israel that is blamed on the Iranians, there
are certainly far more US naval forces in the Persian Gulf than prudence demands.
Bush’s proposed surge appears to have no real military purpose. The US military
opposes it as militarily pointless and as damaging to the US Army and Marine
Corps. The surge can only be accomplished by keeping troops deployed after the
arrival of their replacements. Moreover, the increase in numbers that can be
achieved in this way are far short of the numbers required to put down the insurgency
and civil war.
The only purpose of the surge is to distract Congress while plans are implemented
to widen the war.
Weapons inspectors have failed to find a nuclear weapons program in Iran. Most
experts say it would be years before Iran could make a weapon even if the Iranian
government is actively working on a weapons program. Since the danger, if any,
is years away, why is Israel so determined to attack Iran now?
The answer might be that Israel has the chance now. The Bush administration
is in its pocket. The White House is working with neoconservatives, not with
the American foreign policy community represented by the Iraq Study Group. Neoconservative
propagandists are in influential positions in the media. The US Congress is
intimidated by AIPAC. The correlation of forces are heavily in Israel’s favor.
Part of the Israeli/neoconservative plan has already been achieved with the
destruction of civilian infrastructure and spread of sectarian strife in Iraq,
Afghanistan, and Lebanon. If Iran can be taken out with a powerful air attack
that might involve nuclear weapons, Syria would be isolated and Hezbollah would
be cut off from Iranian supplies.
Israel has two years remaining to use its American resources to achieve its
aims in the Middle East. How influential will Israel and the neoconservatives
be with the next president in the wake of a US defeat in Iraq and Israeli defeat
in Lebanon? If the US withdraws its troops from Iraq, as the US military and
foreign policy community recommend and as polls show the American public wants,
the only effect of Bush’s Iraq invasion will have been to radicalize Muslims
against Israel, the US, and US puppet governments in the Middle East. Extremist
elements will tout their victory over the US, and the pressures on Israel to
accept a realistic accommodation with Palestinians will be overpowering.
Now is the chance – the only chance – for Israel and the neoconservatives to
achieve their goal of bringing Muslims to heel, a goal that they have been writing
about and working to achieve for a decade.
This goal requires the war to be widened by whatever deceit and treachery necessary
to bring the American public along.
The US Congress must immediately refocus its attention from the surge to Iran,
the real target of Bush administration aggression.