March 26, 2002

Fake Friendships

In the months following 9/11, China's status as an emergent rival slipped from the headlines and out of many American minds. Although China's support for the war in Afghanistan didn't reach beyond public forums such as the APEC meeting in Shanghai or concern for the lack of a strong UN role, it was heartfelt in its condemnation of terrorists and therefore enough for most Americans. The celebrations that did take place, the "I told you so attitude" and a few tasteless movies were roundly criticized by leaders of both countries. China and the US needed to establish a mutual understanding after 9/11, so the deportation of foreign practitioners of Falun Gong and the sentencing of a Hong Kong Bible smuggler were treated with caution by the leaderships.

Following Bush's January Asia trip and China's first forays as a full-fledged WTO member, there was a (perceived) further warming of Sino-US ties.

In the hopes of taking advantage of this opportunity, the two countries planned a trip to the US for Jiang's probable successor, Hu Jintao. The trip will allow Hu to step into the light a bit and remove the addition of "Jiang's successor" to his name while also giving the Bush Administration an idea of what the future holds in terms of China's politics. Things didn't look too bad …

But the Chinese government quickly asserted itself in the WTO as a counterbalance to the rich developed nations who are the de facto rulers of the World Trade Organization – then in March China released new regulations concerning the import of soybeans which dealt a blow to soybean producers in the US. The US responded by introducing its own "anti-dumping" legislation following a court ruling that Chinese replacement windshields were being sold at an unfair price in the American market. The US also imposed a tariff on imported steel that hurts an already stumbling Chinese steel industry and extended an invitation to the Taiwan Defense Minister to visit Florida and chat with Deputy Secretary of Defense Paul Wolfowitz – a noted warhawk.

The China Daily carried Chinese Foreign Minister Zhang Qi Yue's rebuke of the US government's continued inability to stay out of China's internal affairs and neglect of the Three Communiques which supposedly govern the two nations' actions concerning Taiwan. The Communiques are routinely flaunted by the US and held up in sputtering rage by the Chinese.

The recently-brought-to-light Taiwan spy scandal demonstrates that US strategic interests are not at stake here. The real reason why the US continually sells arms to Taiwan in direct opposition to the Communiques has more to do with how Taiwan makes its friends: with money.

In March 2000, the head of the Taiwan National Security Bureau, Colonel Liu Kuan-Chun made off with millions from the Bureau's secret accounts. These accounts provided the bribe money that keeps countries such as Japan, South Africa and the US supportive of Taiwan (independence) as well as the funds for Taiwan's spy operations in Mainland China. So far, the US media has kept its mouth shut about this very important revelation. If the US public were to know what drives our Taiwan policy – bribery – perhaps the policy could change.

For more than any other issue, the question of Taiwan's status vis-à-vis the world is one that can set China off. As the US government is very aware of the sensitivity of the issue, one can only conclude that the Bush Administration is giving Hu Jintao an idea of what he can expect in the future, more bribes, more weapon sales and more lies.

Trouble on the Homefront

In the domestic arena, Hu should prepare himself for the labour unrest that has been a long time coming. The protests these past two weeks in the Northeast are the largest of countless protests that have been brewing in teahouses and growing in rice fields all over China. Millions of Chinese wander from village to town to city in search of work. The situation can only get worse before it gets better. Inevitable trade wars in the WTO as well as with the US can only make matters worse in the short run.

A bright note is the reaction of the Chinese police – instead of quelling the disturbance immediately with tear gas and riot cops (much more likely here in the US), the police stood aside and let the people voice their opinion for a few days. Company executives, instead of leaning back and observing the beatings from on high, are now on television and in the newspapers explaining company policy and handing out cash, if only half the demanded amount.

The protest leaders in Liaoyang are under arrest "until the demonstrators disperse," which is a far cry from the imprisonment in Qinghai Province Wei Jingsheng experienced in the 1990s.

But how long can China afford to coax the people into maintaining social stability? China's "rust belt" is not nearly as heavily populated as the southern and southwestern Provinces, especially Sichuan. If the protests come too quick too strong, either Jiang or Hu will crack down and impose order – US Congressmen be damned.

Dollars are Guns

A recent article by Franscesco Sisci points out the rise of civilian control in the Chinese government. The proposed creation of a National Security Council with advisors from all walks of life will dilute the power of the military, says Sisci, and augment the positions of leading economists and businessmen. The dollar has replaced the gun in the international arena and both China and the US realize that trade wars are inevitable.

The US government is as involved in the economy as the Chinese government is. The difference is that that as China's government releases control in accordance with the wishes of the West and the WTO, the US increases control despite its own splutterings about the free market. The US hypocrisy and the sham friendship that followed 9/11 can only result in further misunderstandings and increased animosity.

Text-only printable version of this article

Sascha Matuszak is a teacher living and working in China. His articles have appeared in the South China Morning Post, the Minnesota Daily, and elsewhere. His exclusive Antiwar.com column (usually) appears Fridays.

Archived columns

Fake Friendships
3/26/02

1.3 Billion Problems For China
3/8/02

China's New Post-9/11 Status
2/21/02

Soybeans
2/1/02

Patriotism
1/25/02

Room for Growth
1/19/02

No Peacemaker
1/11/02

Back in the USA
1/4/02

Missing the Boat?
12/14/01

Sweep 'Em Off the Streets
12/7/01

Chinese Embrace Progress
11/30/01