along with many other columnists and reporters, have had a good
time poking fun at Jiang and his New Theory in the past few months.
Jiangís own bluster plus the solemn, blatant propaganda churned
out by the Chinese media has kept us all laughing. A few have taken
the theory seriously and tried hard to bring the innovations therein
to the Western masses.
are laughing, too. At least the ones walking the streets and shouldering
the burdens of the newest class of CCP members, the Characteristically
Capitalist Socialists that roam the countryside in search of profits,
connections and powerónot unlike the railroad barons of the Wild
West, no matter what Jiang calls them. Many of the workers and small-timers
of China have been CCP members for a long time, or their parents
were. Or brothers, uncles, roommates ... The good it has brought
them pales in comparison with the reapings of the long-time corrupt,
violent, morally dubious wholehearted devotees to Western Liberalism:
must an old blue-suit wearing veteran of marches, wars, starvations,
criticism sessions, and revolutions think when he sees that which
he fought, was told to despise and root out has become the eminent
power in China? The barons of modern China have forced the abdication
of the Last Emperor and inserted themselves into the seat of power.
Not that this is a new development in China or elsewhere. The rich
and connected tend to rule. But for the last 50 years in China,
millions of people died to keep "the people" in control.
Three Represents Theory is being sold as the next step on the path
called "Socialism with Chinese Characteristics." Jiang
Zeminís great success in the international area and in the economic
sphere (where the rich and powerful dwell) is the foundation upon
which support for the theory must be based. China, in order to modernize,
must be internationally active, as well as having rising GDPs and
FDIs, improving export-import ratios and Big Games in which Chinese
Big Stars are playing.
enterprise is the engine that drives international acclaim and economic
growth, so it only makes sense to include those with private property
in the Grand Party. They are doing so much for China and
theory has actually done (and probably will continue to do) nothing.
He has stated the obvious and attempted to take credit: "We
have lost power, but we wanted it to happen." Just as international
success and Big Games diverts attention from domestic hardship,
so Jiangís self-congratulations divert attention from a capitalist
reality to a socialist-Chinese illusion.
All Comes Together ...
takes credit for economic development, increased freedom and international
standing and defends the coup of the capitalists with a Theory meant
to usher the Party into a new era, an era in which every man is
for himself and still represented by the Party. He then steps down.
If enough people believe him, they might even believe his theory
and hope for an even greater increase in the standard of living
with the businessmen leading the way, dropping crumbs for the masses
as they strut.
is decentralized and the institution of Emperor is gradully dissolved.
Even if Jiang rules from behind a curtain, he cannot match the stature
and power of his predecessors, therefore he will also not gain an
equal amount of glory, or suffer an equal amount of blame when ...
House of Cards comes falling down on "Who" Jintao who
steps into a weaker position than his mentors vis-à-vis the
Provinces, the Rich and The People. The first two will try to use
and manipulate him and the last one doesnít respect or believe him,
does have some cards up his sleeve. First, the fact that little
is known about him leaves him with a vast array of options to choose
from. Second, he was first mentored by Hu Yaobang: Hero of the People,
The Mourned One, Mentor of Zhao Ziyang, who himself may yet become
a martyr in his old age. Third, Deng himself appointed the man.
That means a lot.
was also tutored by Song Ping and Jiang Zeming, both conservatives
at heart. He spent time in backward provinces like Gansu and Tibet.
This may give him insight into dealing with unemployed, dirt poor,
angry Chinese when the time comes. He has a little experience in
putting down rebellions (Tibet 1988-89), which is good for any Chinese
Premier to have. Who knows what connections Who has in the inland
Provinces where the most people with the least money live?
the Great Theory is a smokescreen. China may yet dodge domestic
turmoil by keeping the police as busy as they are now, letting the
Black Hands and businessmen do their thing (maybe even enlisting
them in a few suppression operations) and keeping the commoners
happy with a bit of dance and game, more construction to marvel
at, a few extra RMB in the pocket and of course an earful of propaganda
to tune out.
Who will not survive is international trouble. And this, unfortunately
for him, is very likely. The US doesnít seem too interested in letting
bygones be bygones and letting the Iraqi people live without explosions
for a while. And a war in Iraq hurts everybody who depends on oil.
Which means basically everybody.
say the war goes quick. And no terrorists rear their heads at all.
And the Arab world just prays their way through Ramadan.
will be in the best position to grab the oil resources of Iraq?
The US, with its army, most likely. With Turkey, The Balkans, The
Central -stans and then Iraq under its sway, the US would just about
link all the resources in the Asian landmass together. Not a happy
scenario for Russia and China who have big money in Iraq and big
projects that are unfinished, or unstarted. Encirclement, Pacification,
Occupation, Development, Profit. Might just work.
Letís say the war takes a couple of months. Americans die, oilfields
burn, Muslims let out a collective "Allah Akbar" and the
Middle East and/or World goes up in flames. Terrorists bomb anything
imports 2 million barrels of oil a day. Russia canít afford to dig
into Siberian ice and can really not afford to lose Middle East
oil. These two may have to choose between Uncle Samís Folly and
their own political and economic lives. What will Who do?
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is a teacher living and working in China. His articles have appeared
in the South China Morning Post, the Minnesota Daily,
and elsewhere. His exclusive Antiwar.com column (usually) appears
Theory Is a Smokescreen
Make You Play Bad Card'
Future of East-West Rapprochement
Legacy: The Forgotten Rebellion
the Chinese Smile
China Can Disregard US Anger
the World: What the US Fears
Billion Problems For China
New Post-9/11 Status
Room for Growth
Back in the USA
Missing the Boat?
Sweep 'Em Off the Streets
Chinese Embrace Progress
War May Reveal New Superpower, Part II
War May Reveal New Superpower
Chance for a New Friendship?
as a Way of Life
Markets or Supermarkets
Towards World Significance
on the Road to Capitalism
American in China
the Street in China: A Report