On November 12th, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced new sanctions on 32 individuals and entities in an effort to curb Iran’s military strength. U.S. reasoning behind these efforts are, according to Under Secretary of the Treasury for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence John K. Hurley, to put “maximum pressure on Iran to end its nuclear threat” at the “direction of President Trump.” These sanctions are merely the latest which have been placed on Iran almost continuously since the 1979 Hostage Crisis during which the Iranian government held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days. However, in the decades since sanctions were first placed on Iran, the regime has not been changed or overthrown as many neoconservatives predicted. Instead, support for the regime has only grown stronger, especially after the recent 12-Day War, which saw the U.S. launch strikes on Iran on behalf of Israel. Clearly, sanctions on Iran have not worked, and the Trump administration’s most recent sanctions will not work either.
Washington’s reasoning for the most recent sanctions is that it is in the interest of the U.S. to disrupt Iran’s “MVM partnership” and UAV materials. The “MVM partnership” describes the network in which missile propellant ingredients are sent from China to Iran. Foreign intermediaries ship the cargo which eventually arrives in Iran. The sanctions also target Ukraine-based front companies owned by Iranian military equipment manufacturing companies. These shell companies procure and supply aerospace materials used to make UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles). Nevertheless, while these sanctions might make it harder for Tehran to manufacture military equipment in the short term, in the long term, the outcome is not so clear. More sanctions means further isolation which could lead Iran to strengthen its financial and military ties with China and Russia.
In a world where China and Russia are contesting US dominance for global hegemon, it is in the interest of all parties to maintain good public relations with the rest of the world. But while China has been funding projects throughout Africa and Russia has been “de-Westernizing” the Global South, the United States has been supporting Israel. The current chapter of the Israel-Palestine conflict has led to the deaths of over 67,000 Palestinians, which numerous organizations have condemned as a genocide. The response of the U.S. is seen in the Arab world, as recent polling indicates, negatively by a staggering 94% of respondents. Furthermore, U.S. involvement in the 12-Day War and the failure of the Trump administration to stop Israel’s strikes in Qatar, an ally, undermines American credibility. Furthermore, sanctions are already not a credible tool, let alone for regime change, as shown through numerous historical examples.
Sanctions have repeatedly failed as a tool of coercion. The most prominent example of this is in Cuba, which has dealt with U.S. sanctions for about 70 years. Nevertheless, the Castro government and its successors have remained firmly in control of the island nation. While the embargo has made life harder for ordinary Cubans, foreign sanctions have only served as a reason for the Cuban people to rally around the government. This is because the Cuban government can point to the U.S. as the cause during times of economic hardship. This, in turn, makes the Cuban government more popular and the U.S. government more despised. Similarly, in Baathist Iraq, U.S. sanctions led to the deaths of 1.5 million Iraqis most of whom were children. This caused the people to rally behind Saddam Hussein, who remained in power until he was removed by a costly military intervention. Sanctions against Iran have failed for similar reasons, and have had the added consequence of making the military more self-reliant.
Iran is very different from both Cuba and Baathist-era Iraq. Despite U.S. sanctions, Iran has been able to rely on its robust indigenous production capabilities to manufacture military equipment domestically. Iran’s status as one of the most sanctioned countries in the world since the late 1970s has forced the country to adopt an autarkic strategy. Iran produces 90% of its weapons domestically and is a major global arms supplier. Additionally, its status as a member of the BRICS+ trade alliance allows it to easily trade with numerous growing economies. Simply put, Iran can still function militarily with or without U.S. sanctions. In many instances, sanctions even strengthen Iran by forcing it to increase its domestic capabilities which has enabled it to become such a big exporter of weapons.
Sanctions do not make the world safer. Instead, they make the world more suspicious, hateful, and self-reliant. This is a recipe for war, not peace. The main loser when the U.S. sanctions Iran is the U.S. itself as it loses leverage as a legitimate partner for peace. Additionally, the global community loses as the likelihood of war becomes greater which would not just reverberate in the Middle East, but in the world as a whole. Washington needs to change course if it wants to regain legitimacy and leverage on the global stage.
J.D. Hester is an independent writer who has previously published on Antiwar.com. He may be reached at josephdhester@gmail.com and followed on X at @JDH3ster.
