Antiwar.com Blog

No Means No

A US patrol attempts to enter an Iraqi university campus, but is stopped at the gates by campus officials.

Six months ago if we saw this as a lead in to a story, there was a good bet the rest of it would involve the university president being marched out into the streets in chains and follow-up stories desperately trying to link him to some militant faction or another.

But with a little over a month left before the UN mandate expires, and the Status of Forces Agreement set to severely curtail the authority of US forces on Iraqi soil, things turned out a little different. After being told they could only enter unarmed, out of uniform and then only after they make a proper appointment, they turned around and left, no incident.

Asking permission is likely as novel a strategy for the military, used to getting its own way in Iraq on all things, as the notion of getting search warrants before entering peoples’ homes, but with the days of unchecked authority and arbitrary detentions seemingly over its something they’re going to have to get used to. So is hearing “no” when it asks for access.

Update: Citing Promises, AP Lifts Military Photo Ban

After yet another incident of the Department of Defense issuing a digitally altered photo to the media, it was announced that the Associated Press would be suspending the use of all photos provided by the Pentagon until further notice. Today, citing a promise from the Pentagon to avoid distributing altered images, they lifted the ban.

This was the second time in the last few months that the DoD has been caught issuing a photograph to the media that was digitally altered. In September, they issued two photos of slain soldiers that were obviously identical beyond the face, name, and rank.

The army insists that it did nothing wrong, as its policy only prohibits issuing edited photos that misrepresent the facts of an event. The AP insists that submitting altered photos for any reason damages the credibility of photos distributed by the military.

Prescience

When I first saw Sony’s adorable little AIBO, I remember mentioning to a friend that one day these robots would bare their slavering teeth at us, form an army and become truly a scourge unto all of mankind.

What I didn’t realize at the time is that the Israeli military has been working on this very thing. Indeed, they went one better: envisioning the mighty AIBOs flanked by a whole army of robotic animals, including robotic cats with razor sharp claws to use for climbing walls, and slithering robot snakes capable of sneaking into buildings through pipes.

AIBO

How Many Troops will Obama Withdraw from Iraq?

The InTrade prediction markets allows individuals to bet on the winner of the presidential elections and US recession timings.Â They can also be used to bet on US foreign policy.Â The graph below shows the contract price for the outcome “Number of US Troops in Iraq (given a Democratic president) as of June 2010.”

A couple of features stand out.Â First, the price was relatively constant for almost all of 2008.Â Second, the price has fluctuated wildly since November 5th and is now 30% below its 2008 average.Â Here is how you calculate the implied June 2010 troop level from the contract price:

expected 2010 troop level = contract price x 2000

As of the end of June [pdf], there were 183,100 troops participating in Operation Iraqi Freedom.Â So a price for a “no change in troop levels” is 91.55 compared to a current price of 29.9. This price says that the Intrade “market” expects about 60,000 US troops in Iraq by the end of June 2010. (Note: As a thinly traded contract, it is difficult to infer true market expectations from the price.)Â If you predict less “change” from this administration, you might think this is an extremely low number.Â If you have little hope for real change, then perhaps you should purchase the contract today.Â Contracts on other foreign policy-related issues are also available:

Gitmo closed by December 31st, 2009 (low number –> low predicted likelihood)

Gates as Sec. of Defense (high number –> high expected likelihood)

Tell Obama: Dump Gates

Dear Antiwar.com Supporter,

Please let the incoming presidential administration know that you demand real change in our interventionist foreign policy. Ask President Elect Barack Obama to make a stand for peace by dumping Bush appointee Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. You can easily let the transition team know your thoughts on this matter by calling 202-540-3000 or pasting the letter below into this form.

Dear President Elect Obama:

You sailed to victory on the promise of change and hope. For those of us who love peace, a change in foreign policy must come with a change in the key personnel who supported and argued for the continued occupation of Iraq. President Elect Obama, we want change in the Pentagon. We ask you to not to give former CIA Director Robert Gates another term as Secretary of Defense.

Respectfully,

[Antiwar.com Reader]

703

Yay. Since 2003, I have done more than 700 interviews in the interest of opposing the state and its wars. 705 to be exact, though two have been lost to computer glitches: an interview of Ivan Eland back in 2003 and one of Glenn Greenwald earlier this year.

Thanks to Shauna, Chad, Eric and Justin, Dan, John, Brendan, Brandon, Angela, August, Chris, Mark, Adam, Brent, everyone at KAOS Radio, Antiwar.com, my incredible guests and listeners for everything.

All interviews are available for free download at ScottHortonShow.com. All foreign policy related interviews since December, 2006 at Antiwar.com/Radio.

(Cross-posted at Stress.)