Deception, Denial, and Demagoguery: Bush Speech Sets A Record

How many lies can this President cram into a single speech? That question may have been answered tonight. 9/11 was invoked at least 5 times as a jusification for the invasion and conquest of Iraq.

But we now know — some of us always knew — that Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. The President has even admitted it on occasion. There is no evidence that the 9/11 hijackers had any assistance from Iraq, or that Osama bin laden and Saddam Hussein were bosom buddies: quite the opposite. Ah, but now we’re fighting “the terrorists” who have carved out a base of operations over there. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy that the President almost seems to relish.

It’s hard to get one’s mind around the debased demagoguery of the President’s appeal. The insurgents, said Bush, want to attack our country “and kill us.” Yet who is attacking whom? The President gloats that “we’re on the offense” — and explicitly justifies this on the grounds that we have to go after them before they go after us. Yet why it is impossible for them to attack the U.S. anyway, even while fighting American troops in Iraq, no one seems to know. Surely Al Qaeda is recruiting hand-over-fist in Iraq, these days, and how many will eventually show up on our shores is an open question. What’s happening in Iraq today is that for every insurgent killed, three rise to take his place.

“Some wonder whether Iraq is a central front in the war on terror. Among the terrorists, there is no debate. Hear the words of Osama Bin Laden: ‘This Third World War is raging’ in Iraq. ‘The whole world is watching this war.’ He says it will end in ‘victory and glory or misery and humiliation.'”

No doubt Osama wants us to focus on Iraq, as he outflanks us yet again and his followers show up on our shores. If only the troops preoccupied with pacifiying Iraq were put to work inspecting all the unexamined cargo coming into our ports, the threat of another 9/11 would be considerably reduced. Unfortunately, we don’t have the troops to do it. We’re securing Fallujah — but not the Port of New York.

“There is only one course of action against them: to defeat them abroad before they attack us at home.”

The flaw in the President’s logic is that we are creating more terrorists than we are killing. The people we are supposedly defeating in Iraq — raiding their homes, killing their loved ones, pushing them around on a daily basis — will not forget, or forgive. If the next terrorist attack is launched by Iraqis, instead of Saudis, how many will be surprised?

“Our mission in Iraq is clear. “

No, it isn’t. Or else why this speech?

“We are hunting down the terrorists.”

The ones that pulled off 9/11? Too late for that. In spite of all the invocations of Zarqawi and Osama bin Laden, the truth is that we are fighting a homegrown nationalist insurgency in Iraq, people who oppose the American occupation — and are fighting the “foreign fighters” simultaneously.

“We are helping Iraqis build a free nation that is an ally in the war on terror.”

Does the President know what’s going on in Basra?

“We are advancing freedom in the broader Middle East.”

More delusions of grandeur. Hezbollah, Amal, and the pro-Syrian factions are the victors in the Lebanese elections cited by Bush. Egypt’s “reform” is a cruel joke. Saudi Arabia’s local elections are equally meaningless.

“We are removing a source of violence and instability and laying the foundation of peace for our children and our grandchildren.”

Nonsense: we are doing precisely the opposite. Where there was once relative stability, we have created — I would say quite deliberately — great instability. We are birthing — and providing a training ground for — a new generation of anti-American terrorists.

The insurgents, the President averred, are losing. But are they? He points to their alleged failures:

“The terrorists, both foreign and Iraqi, failed to stop the transfer of sovereignty.”

Yet this “transfer” was entirely symbolic. It was a cermonial affair, and not a substantial one. The fiction of Iraqi sovereignty is underscored by the “agreement” — forced on the Iraqis at gunpoint — that U.S. soldiers and contractors are not subject to Iraqi law. If you are an Iraqi living in “liberated” Iraq, a U.S. soldier who “accidentally” kills your three-year-old child, your husband, your entire family, is insulated from your vengeance and your government: you cannot even sue them for civil damages. When the occupation forces burst into the house of the head of the Islamic Party — the only substantial Sunni party to take part in the government — beat the family up, and hauled the party leader off to jail, President Talabani complained that he knew nothing about this raid in advance, even as the Americans were apologizing for their “mistake.” Some “sovereignty”! Some “liberation”!

“They failed to break our coalition and force a mass withdrawal by our allies. “

What world is this President living in? Italy, Spain, even Ukraine — most of our “coalition” members have withdrawn their troops, or are about to.

“They failed to incite an Iraqi civil war.”

They didn’t need to incite one, since we’ve already done such a good job of making a civil war inevitable. We handed the Iraqis a provisional constitution that locked most Sunni Muslims out of the political process, and a radical “de-Baathification” program that purged the school system, the universities, and the government of most Sunnis and seculars. Is anyone surprised now that a civil war is breaking out along religious and regional lines? It’s a miracle it didn’t happen sooner.

“They failed to prevent free elections.”

True, although one could quibble about the relative free-ness of the Iraqi election process, where whole sections of the population were prevented from running for office under the terms of the provisional constitution. But so what? What good are elections if the elected government can’t defend itself?

“They failed to stop the formation of a democratic Iraqi government that represents all of Iraq’s diverse population.”

Except for the Sunnis — at least 20 percent of the total population, and easily the most educated and the most alienated.

“And they failed to stop Iraqis from signing up in large numbers with the police forces and the army to defend their new democracy.”

These troops have largely been useless: their unreliability is legendary. The reason is not because they lack “training” or weapons, but because they don’t know or care what they’re fighting for. They’re signing up because they need the money: unemployment is somewhere near 50 percent or more, and people have to live. Yet so are the insurgents signing up: the police and the Iraqi security forces are massively infiltrated. That has been the cause of some of the most spectacular and damaging suicide bombiings.

The President may be right: the insurgents are not winning. Neither are we. The Iraqi rebels have, so far, fought us to a standstill. All they have to do in order to achieve a de facto victory is to stave off defeat. The generals know this. The soldiers in the field know it. The President, if he knows it, will never admit it.

In spite of all the bluff and bluster, there were some subtle indications, I believe, that the President, like the country, is beginning to tire of this quagmire. At one point, when he said: “By taking these critical steps and meeting their deadlines,” Iraqis are marching into a glorious “multiethnic” future, etc. etc., there was an awful lot of emphasis on the word “deadlines.” There was also much emphasis on training the Iraqis, so that we can “stand down as they stand up,” as the President put it.

Yet what training have the insurgents had? This is a question that I’ve heard exactly no one ask. Yet the insurgents seem to be doing all right militarily without “training” seminars in how to fight an insurrection. The war against the occupation has turned the whole country into one big training camp offering a crash course in how to kill Americans, and the insurgents seem to be learning fast. Why can’t the Iraqi government troops display a similar learning curve — could it be because they are far less motivated?

The President continues his campaign of deception — he’s lying when he says we’re fighting the perpetrators of 9/11 in Iraq: we’re fighting Iraqi nationalists, for the most part. The effort to scare us into supporting his foreign policy by conjuring the threat of domestic terrorism is also ongoing — when the reality is that we’re renewing and emboldening the trend represented by Al Qaeda, who rise like Myrmidons from the blood-soaked soil of Iraq. More shameless demagoguery in a time of acute crisis in his policy — and a stubborn refusal to admit error.

This war will end in a negotiated settlement, or an American defeat — but the insurgency will not end until our presence comes to an end. It’s as simple as that. The President can make all the speeches he cares to, but after a while — as the bloody reality continues to rear its ugly head on the evening news each night — people will simply stop listening. I know I passed that point some time ago — and it looks like most Americans, a majority of whom now believe the war wasn’t worth the expenditure of lives and dollars, are not far behind.

Hiding behind “the troops”

Here are a couple of must read posts by Billmon on the Bush speech in front of a captive military audience last night:

Last night, by contrast, seemed about as enjoyable as a root canal for all parties concerned. When the only way you can get a hand from a handpicked military audience is by having a ringer in the audience start clapping [AMERICAblog on the ringer], you know you’re bombing (so to speak.)

The problem, I guess, is that while Bush was using the troops as a visual backdrop, politically speaking he was trying to hide behind them. And it showed.

And here, a possible subtle change in Bush administration talking points which was really the only interesting aspect in an otherwise drearily repetitive performance.

Unexpected blessings

I’m beginning to think maybe God is watching over America. We are blessed with leaders — well, mainly one leader — so clueless, or perhaps so challenged in various ways that he can’t bring himself to do what he needs to do to save his unwise policies from rejection by the people.

Dubya simply had to do something different tonight, something to increase his credibility, something to dissipate the growing notion that he and his administration are divorced from reality over Iraq. Instead he simply repeated his standard schtick. I suspect he is psychologically incapable of admitting in public that he ever made a mistake or miscalculation, and he kept that record intact.

A poll by the ABC affiliate in Los Angeles found that after the speech support for the war dropped — by about five percentage points I think; I’ll check the Web ite in the morning, and opposition increased by about the same amount.

If he continues like this he might just innoculate the American people from supporting foreign adventures for a decade or so.

Bush’s job tonight

It seems to me that in order to be successful in his attempt tonight to reverse the course of public opinion on the Iraq war that President Bush will have to do something that is likely to be very difficult for him personally: acknowledge that the war is not going as well as he had hoped it would be by this time, and that judgments early on — how many troops to send in during the original invasion, how seriously to plan for the aftermath, whether to factor in the possibility of not being greeted with flowers and dancing — had something to do with this. I think he further has to admit that some of his, and especially Cheney’s, assessments of how things were going in the recent past — two weeks ago, three months, six months, a year — were not quite accurate.

He has to do this, I think, because, as he realizes to some extent or he wouldn’t have scheduled the speech, increasing numbers of people are profoundly skeptical about how he has handled the war. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released today shows 56 percent disapproving of the way he is handling Iraq. Americans don’t believe Cheney that the insurgency is in its “last throes;” only 22 percent think it is on the decline.

He can do this. He can say he acted on the best information available at the time, but that wars are messy and sometimes decisions don’t turn out well, but he’s learned and continues to learn from experience. He can point out that WW II was going badly after a year-and-a-half and that he warned us from the beginning that it would be a tough slog, but it’s worth it and the Middle East is starting to stabilize.

I don’t think he’ll succeed, however, unless he’s a lot more candid than is his usual wont about sharing some of the responsibility for bad decisions or miscalculations at various times. Without that it will seem as if he’s addicted to rose-colored glasses and will lose even more credibility.

I doubt he can pull it off, but we’ll see.

The Welfare-Warfare State, Old West Edition

From a good read in today’s New York Times by John Tierney:

    The Crow Indians rode with Custer at Little Bighorn, but they have since reconsidered. On the anniversary of the battle Saturday, they cheered during a re-enactment when Indians drove a stake through his fringed jacket and carved out the heart of the soldier going by the name of Yellow-Hair in Blue Coat Who Kills Babies, Old Men and Old Women.

    Their revised opinion is understandable considering what has happened to them since that battle to get their valley back from rival tribes. Today it’s a Crow reservation with enough land and mineral resources to make each tribe member a millionaire, yet nearly a third live below the poverty level, and the unemployment rate has reached 85 percent.

    What went wrong? Before Custer, the Crows had prospered by trading with whites, but he represented a new kind of white: the one who tells you he’s from Washington and he’s here to help you. As the economists Terry Anderson and Fred McChesney have documented, the downfall of the American Indians correlates neatly with the rise of two federal bureaucracies.

    The first was the standing army established during the Mexican War of the 1840s. Before then, settlers who wanted Indian land usually had to fight for it themselves or rely on local militias, so they were inclined to look for peaceful solutions. From 1790 to 1840, the number of treaties signed with Indians each decade far exceeded the number of battles with them.

    But during the next three decades there were more battles than treaties, and after the Army’s expansion during the Civil War the number of battles soared while treaties ceased. Settlers became an adept special interest lobbying for Washington to seize Indian land for them. For military leaders, the “Indian problem” became a postwar rationale for maintaining a large force; for officers like Custer, battles were essential for promotions and glory.

    Indians no longer had any bargaining power, and they were powerless to resist the troops that avenged Custer’s death. They were consigned to reservations and ostensibly given land, but it was administered by another bureaucracy, the agency that would grow into what’s now the Bureau of Indian Affairs.

    The agency, in addition to giving some of the best land away to whites, allotted parcels to individual Indians with the goal of gradually transferring all the land and ending federal supervision. But what self-respecting bureaucrats work themselves out of a job?

Oh, the parallels!

As a side note, the defeat of Custer – who was heroically attempting to slaughter an entire village, as commemorated in this popular print from the time – did not dissuade America from staying the course.

Hundredth Verse, Same as the First

So Dubya’s giving a prime-time address tomorrow, and from all indications, he won’t be saying anything new. Rah-rah troops, yay democracy, boo terrorists, stay the course – we all know it like the Pledge of Allegiance by now. One should never underestimate the mind of Karl Rove, of course, but this move has me bumfuzzled. What is to be gained? If the president’s advisers think so highly of his rhetorical skills as to believe another of his speeches will stand public opinion on its head, then we really are ruled by madmen. And if the speech doesn’t change a significant number of minds, then what?

According to this polling graph from the Wall Street Journal (via Justin Logan), the public has favored a quick withdrawal over staying the course ever since the war began – with one exception, in November 2004. (Remember that Bush’s reelection with 51 percent that same month was hailed as a mandate.) By February 2005, right after the Iraq election, the margin was already around 60-40 in favor of leaving soon, and it’s now 63-33. Americans – including plenty who voted for Bush – believe that the job is either done or undoable.

If tomorrow’s tired ploy fails, we’ll have a pretty reliable forecast for Bush’s second term. I expect hot and unpleasant, with a strong chance of midterm storms.

UPDATE: A new Washington Post-ABC News poll [.pdf] offers a different view of the public mood on withdrawal. From the article:

    As President Bush prepares to address the nation about Iraq tonight, a new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that most Americans do not believe the administration’s claims that impressive gains are being made against the insurgency, but a clear majority is willing to keep U.S. forces there for an extended time to stabilize the country.

    The survey found that only one in eight Americans currently favors an immediate pullout of U.S. forces, while a solid majority continues to agree with Bush that the United States must remain in Iraq until civil order is restored — a goal that most of those surveyed acknowledge is, at best, several years away.

Hmm. Elsewhere in the survey, we find:

    * 53% say the war was “not worth fighting”

    * 62% say the U.S. is “bogged down” in Iraq

    * 60% are not confident “that Iraq will have a stable, democratic government a year from now”

    * “Do you think the anti-government insurgency in Iraq is (getting stronger), (getting weaker), or staying about the same?” 24% say stronger, 53% say about the same, and 22% say weaker.

So the war wasn’t worth fighting, we’re bogged down, democracy and stability aren’t in sight, there’s no progress versus the insurgency – yet when asked, “Do you think (the United States should keep its military forces in Iraq until civil order is restored there, even if that means continued U.S. military casualties); OR, do you think (the United States should withdraw its military forces from Iraq in order to avoid further U.S. military casualties, even if that means civil order is not restored there)?” only 41% chose the latter? The poll from the Wall Street Journal asked “Do you favor keeping a large number of U.S. troops in Iraq until there is a stable government there or bringing most of our troops home in the next year?” To which 63% said withdraw in the latest survey. Any explanations for the glaring discrepancy?