Think-Tank Fuels Irrational Fears of Iran

Britain’s IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies) warned in a report today that in four years Iran “could be able to target London” with missiles. The claim comes as Iran tested the Fajr-5 missile.

Quick Math:

Fajr-5’s maximum range = 75 km

Iran’s best missile’s range = 1,600 km

The Sajjil-2, the best missile Iran is working on = 2,200 km

Distance from Tehran to London = 4,409 km

Iran’s best existing missile is able to hit Israel, albeit not accurately, and further developments into Iran’s longest range missiles are focused primarily on increasing accuracy, not dramatically expanding the range.

Furthermore, most of Iran’s recent development effort has been put into missiles like the Fajr-5 and anti-aircraft missiles, meant primarily to defend against immediate attack.

Though officials have regularly claimed Iran is working on such a long-range capability there appears to be little logical reason for them to do so and even less evidence that they actually are. For Iran the ability to retaliate effectively against an Israeli first strike seems to be the first and last word on their “long range” missiles.

The IISS report plays well, however, with the argument put forward in the political debates in favor of Britain dramatically upgrading their nuclear arsenal as a “deterrent” against Iran, which has never shown any particular interest in attacking Britain and has no capability to do so.

34 thoughts on “Think-Tank Fuels Irrational Fears of Iran”

  1. How far from Bandar-e-Abbas is it to, say, the new British ocean preserve around Diego Garcia?

    The Iranians have already said that an attack on Iran by either the US or Israel would draw an immediate Iranian response against both the US and Israel.

    Suppose Britain is included in the US attack contingency?

  2. The island of Diego Garcia is only nominally British. It is for all intents and purposes a US possession, and the airbase there would launch any B52 attack on Iran. If the US attacked Iran, it would be fair game. Britain doesn't really enter into it. They retained technical sovereignty just to save face, the US would have taken it anyway.

    1. Just a bit over 2000 nautical miles.

      No doubt, since the sovereignty is strictly technical, strictly technical would be any counterattack Iran might manage as well.

      Ah well, the British were actually the original moving force behind the overthrow of Mossa Degh, weren't they?

      1. Yes and guess who! The Anglo-Iranian Oil Co. that later became -this is a guessing game – BP, the same BP that is turning the Gilf of Mexico into a dead Ssa
        They are back but they did nothing wrong and will pay "legitemate damages."
        There is nothing like an oil company – thank God!

  3. Why would Iran want to attack London remains unclear, of course unless the UK attacked Iran first. But that's the same the UK would do should Iran attack the UK first, isn't it?

    1. There are numerous British forces within easy reach, just as there are American.

      Israel and the US, if they are seriously contemplating an attack on Iran, no doubt consider all of them expendable.

      After all they are "professional volunteers" and military contractors" mostly, aren't they?

      As for British and American diplomats–well–no doubt the Iranians are keeping close watch on who is moved in and out, as well as on Israeli immigration to, say, Panama and Australia.

    2. It's just a wild guess, but the timing of the recent declaration of a sea preserve around Diego Garcia. which among other things keeps fishing boats out, was likely coordinated with the US, which is supposedly transporting various new munitions to the area, including bunker busters, whatever that may means.

  4. THE PERSIANS ARE COMING, THE PERSIANS ARE COMING!!! Be afraid, be very afraid. Who's to "save" freedom loving people the world over? Not to fear everyone, it's 'BibiObama Man' gonna "save us!" And now a word from our sponsors, Britain’s International Institute for Strategic Studies. "War is good for you but, it's better for us." Thank you.

  5. As much as i hate to see violence,i applauded the greek people for standing up and say enough is enough from their so called goverment that put the entire population into poverty..sadly,the so called two great nations of GB and the USA are totally bullshitting their nations and bankrupting them with two illegal wars and are about to enter another more disastrous one based on lies and propaganda,and alas the populace are too busy with ‘american idol’ and other nonsense until it will be too late to do anything .

    1. Excuse me, but if you enjoy the rights of a democracy, you should also bear the responsibilities for the actions of the people you elect. Or not?

  6. Is it me? Please explain.

    Could anyone describe (in words that even I could understand) why would Iran attack any country that have nukes , with conventional missiles (or anythig else) assuming they have the capacity to do so? which is unlikely.
    Would not the response be overwhelming and immediate, with the complete destruction of Iran as we know it? "Back to the stone age" and all that.

    What possibly could thay gain by doing it? Huge absolute loss! No gain!

    Who,s kidding who here!

    Any oil in Iran?

    Strategic location?

    Surely "No nukes is good nukes"

    Trash the lot of them for sake! of humankind!

    No nukes here in OZ

  7. Self-defense only, obviously.

    And in self-defense it works, even against a nuclear power.That's the nice thing about nuclear weapons.

    Unless you purpose s to commit sucide, they are worthless–worse than worthless actually.

  8. The zionist fear mongers are desperate.

    Q: Who’s the nation that has unilaterally attacked another country without justification in the Middle East?

    A: Israel, when it attacked Iraq’s Osirak reactor without justification.

    Q: Which nation is a NON SIGNATORY to the NNPT, but has a nuclear arsenal with 300+ nuclear warheads in it, in the Middle East?

    A: Israel

    Q: Which military will have to shed it’s own blood, and which country will be fighting the war for Israel after the Israeli Attack on the Iranians?

    A: The good old U.S.S.A., that’s who!

    Q: Which nation in the middle east is the largest threat to world peace, or peace in the region?

    A: Israel, a non signatory to the NNPT, with nuclear weapons in it’s arsenal, that’s who!

    Q: Who is the beneficiary of a pre-emptive, illegal strike on Iran?

    A: Israel, though the rest of the world will be plunged into FINANCIAL TURMOIL because of the illegal attack by Israel on the Iranian cities they plan on striking with U.S.S.A.’s help this year.

  9. I suspect that Idaho and Wyoming are in great danger. Why the Iranians might even land on their beaches and spread terror through this densely populated area.
    Fortunately they can build bunkers out of their used tea bags – what better protection.

  10. We suck at war and intimidation… Come on 4yrs and 2 -3rd world Countries later. Bring the boys and girls home for the 4th….NOW

  11. ..Charles Schumer of New York announced the Yahweh himself had anointed him Israel’s defender in the US Senate. In a radio interview Schumer explained "You know, my name …. comes from the word shomer, guardian, watcher. My ancestors were guardians of the ghetto wall in Chortkov. And I believe Hashem (God) actually gave me that name. One of my roles, very important in the United States senate, is to be a shomer — to be the shomer Yisrael. And I will continue to be that with every bone in my body …"
    http://original.antiwar.com/giraldi/2010/05/12/ma

    1. Why is this guy, Schumer still in the Congress? Are the people in New York that brain dead not only in continually reelecting this Israeli traitor to the House, but then elected him to the Senate?

      Him and the other Israeli citizens should be on their way to Israel.

  12. Another of Chuckie’s very important roles is that of a lunatic thinking himself to be the destroying hand of God. Oh wait, that’s what Bush thought himself to be.

    Dang. So many crackpots, so few openings in Congress and the executive branch. What’s a madman to do?

  13. We absolutely must stop engaging in groupthink and in following mindlessly. Grassroots action needs to happen to get us out of this mess. It doesn't take an Einstein….although Einstein himself clearly understood what we as individuals must do: http://www.anwot.org/Einstein.html . We must not be sheep!

    1. A house is relatively harmless. But when they drop a wife and children on you – you're totally screwed :)

  14. "Debbie Schlussel, a conservative blogger, charged that Fakih was a radical Muslim because she shares her family name with some officials in Hezbollah, the militant Lebanese Shiite Muslim group.

    The Jewish Internet Defense Force, a pro-Israeli website, proclaimed it "a dark day for America."

    Daniel Pipes, an outspoken neoconservative author and former adviser to Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign, wondered about "this surprising frequency of Muslims winning beauty pageants" — he listed five examples in three countries since 2005 — and suggested that the Donald Trump-owned Miss USA pageant had bowed to affirmative action….
    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/05/17/94317/new-m

  15. "We ask that you pull down Buchanan's latest column from your website and that you stop publishing his over-the-top, conspiratorial screeds," it reads.

    In the column, titled, "Are liberals anti-WASP?", Buchanan wrote: "If Kagan is confirmed, Jews, who represent less than 2 percent of the U.S. population, will have 33 percent of the Supreme Court seats."

    Several Jewish groups have long quarreled with Buchanan, accusing him of making anti-Semitic statements and being opposed to the state of Israel.

    {Buchanan has denied his remarks have been anti-Semitic and says "he supports Israel." }
    http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/

  16. It is onerous for me to imagine that people who learn little or no – or by no means in some circumstances – should presume to write and count on individuals to love what they have written. Studying is the foundation that all writing is constructed on. Once we learn, from cereal packing containers to Shakespeare, with Stephen King in between, we absorb the examples that we will later use to write down. EYP MISSION CRITICAL

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