Britain’s IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies) warned in a report today that in four years Iran “could be able to target London” with missiles. The claim comes as Iran tested the Fajr-5 missile.
Fajr-5’s maximum range = 75 km
Iran’s best missile’s range = 1,600 km
The Sajjil-2, the best missile Iran is working on = 2,200 km
Distance from Tehran to London = 4,409 km
Iran’s best existing missile is able to hit Israel, albeit not accurately, and further developments into Iran’s longest range missiles are focused primarily on increasing accuracy, not dramatically expanding the range.
Furthermore, most of Iran’s recent development effort has been put into missiles like the Fajr-5 and anti-aircraft missiles, meant primarily to defend against immediate attack.
Though officials have regularly claimed Iran is working on such a long-range capability there appears to be little logical reason for them to do so and even less evidence that they actually are. For Iran the ability to retaliate effectively against an Israeli first strike seems to be the first and last word on their “long range” missiles.
The IISS report plays well, however, with the argument put forward in the political debates in favor of Britain dramatically upgrading their nuclear arsenal as a “deterrent” against Iran, which has never shown any particular interest in attacking Britain and has no capability to do so.