Encouraging Japan to build nuclear weapons, shipping
food aid via submarines, and running secret sabotage operations inside North
Korea's borders are among a raft of policy prescriptions pushed by prominent
U.S. neoconservatives in the wake of Pyongyang's nuclear test.
Writing in publications from National Review online (NRO) to the New
York Times, neoconservatives claim, contrary to the lessons drawn by "realist"
and other critics of the George W. Bush administration, that Monday's test vindicates
their long-held view that negotiations with "rogue" states like North Korea
are useless and that "regime change" – by military means, if necessary – is
the only answer.
"With our intelligence on North Korea so uneven, the doctrine of preemption
must return to the fore," wrote Dan Blumenthal, an Asia specialist at the American
Enterprise Institute (AEI) who worked for Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld
during Bush's first term, at NRO Tuesday. "Any talk of renewed six-party talks
[involving China, Japan, Russia, the U.S., and the two Koreas] must be resisted."
The North Korean test "has stripped any plausibility to arguments that engaging
dictators works," according to Michael Rubin, a Middle East specialist at AEI,
who added that the Bush administration now faces a "watershed" in its relations
with other states that have defied Washington in recent years.
"This crisis is not just about North Korea, but about Iran, Syria, Venezuela,
and Cuba as well," according to Rubin. "Bush now has two choices: to respond
forcefully and show that defiance has consequence, or affirm that defiance pays
and that international will is illusionary."
"[He] must now choose whether his legacy will be one of inaction or leadership,
Chamberlain or Churchill," he added in a reference to the pre-World War II debate
between the "appeasement" of British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and
the war policy of his successor, Winston Churchill.
The neoconservatives, whose influence on the Bush administration has generally
been on the wane since late 2003 when it became clear that the Iraq war that
they had done so much to champion was going badly, nonetheless retain some clout,
particularly through the offices of Vice President Dick Cheney and Pentagon
They are opposed by the "realists" who are concentrated in the State Department
and also include former secretary of state Colin Powell; his chief deputy, Richard
Armitage; and a number of top national security officials in the administration
of former President George H.W. Bush, such as former national security adviser
Brent Scowcroft, and former secretary of state James Baker, who just last weekend
publicly called for Washington to directly engage its "enemies," including
North Korea, Syria, and Iran.
That stance is anathema to the neoconservatives and their right-wing allies,
such as Cheney, who, at one national security council meeting on North Korea
several years ago, was reported to have said, "We don't negotiate with evil;
we defeat it."
The neoconservatives' main area of concern has historically been the Middle
East – indeed, their central focus in recent months has been publicizing the
threats to the U.S. and Israel allegedly posed by Iran and Hezbollah and opposing
any realist appeals to engage Tehran and Damascus in direct talks. But they
have also been warning for some time against "the appeasement" of North Korea
and its chief source of material aid and support, China.
In their view, Beijing has always had the power to force Pyongyang to give
up its nuclear arms programs, and the fact that it has not done so demonstrates
that China sees itself as a "strategic rival" of Washington, a phrase much favored
by administration hawks during Bush's first year in office.
Indeed, in the most prominent neoconservative reaction to the North Korean
test to date, former Bush speechwriter David Frum called in a column published
by the New York Times for the administration to take a series of measures
designed to "punish China" for its failure to bring Pyongyang to heel.
Among them, Frum, who is also based at AEI and is sometimes credited with inventing
the phrase "axis of evil," in which North Korea, Iran, and Iraq were lumped
together, for Bush's 2002 State of the Union address, urged the administration
to cut off all humanitarian aid to North Korea, pressure South Korea to do the
same, and thus force China to "shoulder the cost of helping to avert" North
Korea's economic collapse.
Frum, who is also based at AEI, urged that Japan, South Korea, Australia, New
Zealand, and Singapore to be invited to join NATO and that Taiwan, which China
regards as a renegade province, to send observers to NATO meetings.
Frum, who in 2003 co-authored An End to Evil with former Defense Policy
Board chairman Richard Perle, also suggested that Washington "encourage Japan
to renounce the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and create its own nuclear deterrent."
"A nuclear Japan is the thing China and North Korea dread most (after, perhaps,
a nuclear South Korea or Taiwan)," he asserted.
"Not only would the nuclearization of Japan be a punishment of China and North
Korea," he wrote, "but it would also go far to meet our goal of dissuading Iran
[from trying to obtain a nuclear weapons]. … The analogue for Iran, of course,
would be the threat of American aid to improve Israel's capacity to hit targets
with nuclear weapons," according to Frum.
Other neoconservatives echoed Blumenthal's position that the Six-Party Talks
should be abandoned and called for the administration to resist any further
appeals for bilateral talks between Washington and Pyongyang – repeatedly made
by China, South Korea, and Russia, as well as by realists in the U.S., over
the past several years.
"There will be renewed calls for bilateral talks between Washington and Pyongyang.
That would be a mistake." according to the lead editorial in the neoconservative
Wall Street Journal, which also urged the U.S. to "make clear that a
military response is not off the table."
Other commentators called for strong efforts to achieve regime change. James
Robbins, senior fellow at the American Foreign Policy Council, called for covert
action, including "sabotage, espionage, information operations, subversion,
deception – the works. A highly paranoid totalitarian regime like Kim [Jong-Il's]
will be highly susceptible to these methods," he predicted.
At the same time, former House Speaker and DPB member Newt Gingrich, who is
also based at AEI, said he favored continuing shipments of U.S. food aid but
through a covert delivery system "consciously designed to undermine the dictatorship."
"Food might be parachuted into the country, delivered from submarines and small
boats by clandestine services, shipped in from China and Russia through anti-regime
middlemen, and delivered in every way possible to divert energy and authority
away from the government and toward an alternative organizing system of individuals
dedicated to a better, more prosperous life," he wrote.
Like his fellow neoconservatives, Frank Gaffney, the president of the Center
for Security Policy, called for accelerated development and deployment of Washington's
embryonic but extraordinarily costly missile-defense system, including a ship-launched
system that can shoot down ballistic missiles of various ranges "whether launched
from places like North Korea or from tramp steamers off our coasts."
He also urged Washington to resume periodic underground nuclear tests of its
own, ending a moratorium on such testing announced by former President George
H.W. Bush in 1992.
(Inter Press Service)