JERUSALEM After pounding Lebanon from the skies for nine days, the Israeli
army has begun, without any official announcement, the ground phase of its military
operation, with thousands of elite troops having crossed the border into south
Lebanon to hunt down Hezbollah fighters and their stockpiles of rockets.
The army announced Friday that it was calling up thousands more reservists,
who would be sent to the northern border as well as to the Gaza Strip, where
Israel has been conducting another offensive, ever since a soldier was snatched
by Palestinian militants in late June.
The thousands of residents who were fleeing northward Friday from their villages
in south Lebanon also appeared to be a harbinger of a possible ground push by
Defense Minister Amir Peretz provided the first hint that Israel's operations
on the ground were expanding when he declared Thursday that while the government
had "no intention of occupying Lebanon" it also had "no intention
of retreating from any military measures...If we have to carry out operations
that require we operate everywhere, we will do that without hesitation."
But some military observers in Israel caution that this is the moment for which
Hezbollah has been waiting. Having continued to fire rockets into northern Israel
despite the fierce aerial blitz, they say, the Shi'ite organization is now trying
to lure Israel into south Lebanon, where its fighters are firmly dug in and
where the rocky, mountainous terrain gives them an advantage in fighting a conventional
What is more, Israel's political leaders are aware that if the army becomes
entangled in south Lebanon and begins to sustain large numbers of casualties
on the ground, the broad public backing for the offensive in Lebanon could erode.
The deaths of six soldiers in close-quarter fighting in south Lebanon in the
space of just 24 hours between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon
have heightened the fears in Israel of a bloody ground confrontation with
For now, the military activity is being confined to raids across the border
up to some two kilometers inside Lebanese territory in which elite
troops have been trying to uncover underground tunnels and bunkers built by
Hezbollah, where their fighters are hiding with stockpiles of rockets. The fighters
occasionally emerge from their subterranean hideouts to fire rockets into Israel
before again taking refuge, the Israeli army says.
With the call-up of reservists, the army says it is planning to expand its
ground operations in the coming days, although senior officers insist there
are no plans to seize permanent positions inside Lebanon. Troops, they say,
will conduct raids from Israel into Lebanon to sweep villages for Hezbollah
fighters and weaponry.
"It's not a ground operation, it's a surgical operation," said cabinet
minister Rafi Eitan, when asked Friday whether Israel was on the verge of launching
a major ground offensive. But he added, "When you go in on the ground,
you pay the price."
Giora Eiland, former head of Israel's National Security Council, questions
the wisdom of a ground invasion. "The price of such a move will be high,
its effectiveness much lower, and we certainly can't decide on such a move right
now," he said Thursday.
This is the dilemma now facing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert: If he is unable
to significantly weaken Hezbollah one of the declared goals of the Israeli
operation in Lebanon he will emerge from the crisis weakened and with Israel's
deterrent capacity eroded. If the rockets continue landing in northern Israel
despite the air strikes, he may therefore feel compelled to send in more and
more ground troops.
Some military observers have begun arguing that if Israel wants to administer
a serious body blow to Hezbollah, it cannot be done from the air alone and that
ultimately the ground forces will have to be sent in to neutralize the rocket
threat on the country's northern border. But others insist that a ground operation
is exactly what Hezbollah wants.
Veteran military commentator Ron Ben-Yishai wrote Thursday on the popular Ynet
internet site that the attempt by Israeli ground forces to hunt down those firing
the Katyusha rockets into Israel plays into the hands of Hezbollah.
"The organization assumed ahead of time that the army would send its special
forces to hunt Katyushas on the ground, after the air force had failed to stop
the rocket fire. It is safe to assume that the Hezbollah spotters on the ground
detected the night time movements of the Israeli commandos. And they are using
the areas from where they launch the rockets as bait: they set up ambushes around
these areas, with the almost certain knowledge that sooner or later an Israeli
raiding party will pay them a visit."
Ben-Yishai suggests the military reduce the intensity of its bombing campaign
in Beirut and maintain a 24-hour aerial presence over southern Lebanon, with
the purpose of striking at Hezbollah's rocket-launching cells from the air.
For Israelis, the "Lebanon trauma" is still fresh. Until six years
ago, Israel occupied a buffer zone in south Lebanon, with the purpose of keeping
Hezbollah fighters from penetrating across the border. But after years of incessant
attacks by the Shi'ite organization on its troops, and hundreds of casualties,
Israel pulled out in May 2000, and Israelis are loathe to venture back.
For now, Olmert's popularity is at an all-time high. Opinion polls published
in recent days indicate that close to 80 percent of the public are satisfied
with his job performance and over 80 percent back the military offensive he
From the outset, Israel's plan has been to weaken Hezbollah so that the new
Lebanese government can assert its authority and deploy its forces in Hezbollah-controlled
south Lebanon, as stipulated by United Nations resolution 1559.
That is an ambitious goal. If Olmert emerges from the fighting with a deal
that keeps Hezbollah far from Israel's northern border and unable to reestablish
its rocket capability, Israelis will hail the operation as a success. But if
the fighting drags on, the rockets keep falling, the army starts to incur heavy
casualties on the ground and Olmert is forced to scale back his initial demands,
Israelis might be left wondering about the wisdom of launching the military
campaign in the first place.
(Inter Press Service)