The threat by the George W. Bush administration
last week to withdraw all economic and military support from the Iraqi government
if it does not accept the US-Iraq status of forces agreement has raised the
stakes in the political-diplomatic struggle over the issue.
However, most Iraqi politicians are now so averse to any formal legitimization
of the US military presence – and particularly of extraterritorial legal
rights over US troops in the country – that even that threat is unlikely
to save the pact.
For most Iraqis the agreement is all too reminiscent of the unequal security
agreement that gave military rights to British imperialism in Iraq from 1930
to 1958. The symbolism of foreign domination inherent in that historical parallel
makes it risky for political party leaders and members of parliament to be seen
as going along with any agreement that provides special privileges to the United
In a move reflecting a new sense of desperation that has overtaken US officials,
Gen. Ray Odierno, the top US commander in Iraq, warned Iraqi officials that
they would lose a total of 16 billion dollars in assistance for the economy
and Iraqi security forces unless the agreement is approved by parliament, according
to a story by McClatchy newspapers reporter Leila Fadel Sunday.
The threat was contained in a three-page document listing all of the forms
of assistance that the United States would terminate if a US-Iraqi agreement
is not accepted, which was given to various top Iraqi officials last week, Fadel
reported. USA Today reported that the list included "tens" of functions
that the Bush administration is now threatening to halt if the pact is not approved
by the parliament.
Many of the forms of US assistance to Iraq which Washington says it would end,
including training Iraqi security forces, patrolling Iraq's borders and waterways
and providing air traffic control and air defense, could not be continued without
a legal basis for the US military presence.
Neither economic assistance nor arms sales, however, require any such agreement.
Nor would the release of US detainees, which is also reportedly on the list.
The threat to halt that aid is an obvious bid to pressure the entire Iraqi political
system to accept an agreement close to the one now on the table.
The US move was apparently based on the premise that Iraqi officials and
parliamentarians would be shocked by the sudden loss of so much that they had
depended on. Iraqi Vice President Tariq al Hashimi was reported to have said
Iraqi leaders had been taken by surprise by the move.
But in the current Iraqi political environment, the US move appears to be
strengthening Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's determination to reject
the "final draft" agreement that the Bush administration believed
had been agreed on earlier this month.
Maliki's cabinet agreed Tuesday to demand a series of changes in the draft,
despite Bush administration warnings that it is not open to any major revisions.
According to the Washington Post, cabinet ministers decided that the agreement
must cede more legal authority over US soldiers accused of crimes than is
allowed in the current draft, which limits Iraqi jurisdiction to off-duty and
That demand is certain to be rejected by Washington, which had already granted
more authority to Iraqi courts than had been allowed in any previous US status
of forces agreement.
The Post reported that the Iraqi government also intended to make the 2011
date for complete withdrawal of US troops even more ironclad than in the current
draft, and to explicitly prohibit any attack on neighboring countries from Iraqi
bases. The latter demand was in response to the US commando raid on Syrian territory
launched from Iraq last weekend.
One reason US pressure tactics are not likely to be effective in forcing
the Iraqi government and parliament to approve the existing draft is that the
Bush administration is a lame duck, and Iraqis expect an Obama administration
to be less aggressive in Iraq.
A senior Shiite parliamentarian, Ali al-Adeeb, who has reflected Maliki's views
on the pact, said last week the prime minister is not intimidated by US threats,
because he believes he has the option of getting an extension of the UN mandate,
and may hope to negotiate with a new administration next January.
Even more important in shaping the Iraqi political response, however, is the
perception that the proposed agreement is the same type of unequal military
relationship that Iraq had with the British for decades. With local elections
coming up next year, Iraqi politicians are afraid to be viewed by the voters
as supporting such a document.
Jalal al Din al Sagheer, deputy head of the Shiite Muslim Islamic Supreme Council
of Iraq – one of the political parties that is opposing the pact in the parliament
– explained to McClatchy newspapers last week that any Iraqi official who accepted
the agreement "will be taken as an agent for the Americans."
Maliki and other Iraqi politicians remember very well the cost paid by politicians
who fell afoul of Iraqi nationalists' efforts to revise the 1930 Anglo-Iraqi
treaty, which gave the British special military privileges in Iraq that limited
When the Iraqi government revised the treaty in 1948 to extend it for 20 more
years, it hoped to limit British military influence. The British agreed to evacuate
the bases, but were given the right to return in the event of war. The revised
treaty also set up a Joint Defense Board, which nationalist officers viewed
as a symbol of continuing British domination.
The new agreement triggered mass protests in Baghdad, which was brutally put
down by Iraqi police, killing 400 people. The first Shiite prime minister of
Iraq, Salih Jaber, who renegotiated the agreement, was soon forced out of office.
In 1954, US Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, looking for allies against
the Soviet Union, pressured Iraq to join the Baghdad Pact with Britain, Turkey,
Iran and Pakistan. The British government wanted Iraqi membership in the pact
as a means of assuring British access to military bases in Iraq after the Anglo-Iraq
pact expired in 1958.
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Said preferred to stay out of the pact, but he
needed US military assistance to rearm Iraq. In a parallel to the tactic now
being applied, the Eisenhower administration said he would get no arms and even
threatened to cut all existing economic assistance to Iraq unless Said joined
Said gave in to that pressure and joined the pact in 1955. But three years
later, nationalist officers overthrew the monarchical regime of Iraq and killed
According to Phebe Marr, a specialist on Iraqi history, Maliki's grandfather
had been a cabinet minister, and Maliki himself is certainly familiar with the
story of Prime Minister Jaber's negotiations with the British on the Anglo-Iraq
Treaty. He also remembers Nuri Said's fate in 1958.
That history helps to explain why the issue of Iraqi jurisdiction over US
troops has taken on such extraordinary importance in Iraqi politics. A leading
Shia cleric in the holy city of Najaf attacked the agreement for giving US
forces immunity from Iraqi jurisdiction in his Friday sermon on Oct. 17, declaring,
"We consider this a basic point, because it represents sovereignty."
(Inter Press Service)