If not getting nuked in your jammies is high on
your priority list, then maybe your best bet is to vote for John Kerry.
Kerry has just endorsed last October's Brit-French-German agreement with Iran,
whereby they pledged to facilitate "the fullest possible exchange of equipment,
materials and scientific and technological information for the peaceful uses
of nuclear energy" if Iran agreed to sign and abide by an additional protocol
to their existing Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy
But the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) already requires such transfers.
Why was the Brit-French-German-Russian pledge necessary? Because for more than
20 years, the United States has prevented and still seeks to prevent
such transfers to Iran.
Even before Bush declared "victory" in Iraq, the neo-crazies had
begun making the same unsubstantiated charges about illicit nukes in Iran they
had so effectively made about Iraq, hoping, thereby, to scare you soccer-moms
into endorsing an invasion of Iran.
Next week the Bush Administration will try to convince the IAEA Board of Directors
to refer the alleged Iranian nuke program to the UN Security Council for "action."
Bush wants a Security Council resolution similar to the one he used as
an excuse to invade Iraq warning Iran of "serious consequences"
if they are unable to convince him that they have no nuke ambitions.
However, reflecting upon what Bush did to Iraq, the Board is unlikely to refer
the alleged Iranian nuke program to the Council. And even if they did, there
is no way the Council would give Bush a resolution he could misuse to invade
There can be no doubt that Bush's invasion of Iraq allegedly to keep nukes
that never existed out of the hands of terrorists has vastly increased the
probability that terrorists will acquire real nukes. Kerry in endorsing the
Brit-French-German agreement with Iran is essentially saying he realizes
that an invasion of Iran could have similar results.
Of course, after seeing what Bush did to no-nuke Iraq, the Iranians would be
crazy if they didn't harbor nuke ambitions. But they insist they don't and have
made as the Brit-French-German agreement required what they claim
is a complete disclosure of their "nuclear programs."
The IAEA has been checking out that disclosure statement for months and has
found some discrepancies. But they have as yet found no indications
of a nuke program. Iran is currently in full compliance with its existing Safeguards
In particular, the Iranians insist they have not yet produced highly
enriched uranium (HEU) at the production or even pilot-plant stage, and
have never enriched uranium even in the laboratory to as much
as 20% HEU, much less to the 90% HEU required for nukes.
When the IAEA took some swipes from Iranian equipment that indicated the presence
of HEU, the neo-crazies went ballistic. The Iranians had been lying! They had
been producing "weapons-grade" uranium!
Well, in the first place, the IAEA didn't find any Iranian-produced HEU. They
found microscopic traces of HEU on equipment the Iranians had imported. And
just this week, after talking to the exporters, the IAEA concluded that the
Iranian claim that the equipment was contaminated when they imported it was
What about the advanced P-2 centrifuges the neo-crazies claimed Iran had left
off their 2003 disclosure?
Well, the IAEA has concluded the Iranians haven't imported any P-2 centrifuges,
nor have they been able to produce any of their own.
Back in 1995 the Iranians did acquire "from a foreign intermediary"
the plans for a centrifuge similar to the Urenco
P-2. However, they were unable to produce the maraging-steel
rotors required. They did manage to produce several carbon-composite rotors,
and by the time the research program ended in June 2003, they had performed
some mechanical tests. However, they had not done any tests with uranium-fluoride
gas. There are no plans to produce quantities of these Iranian-developed centrifuges.
What about the Iranian disclosure this week to the IAEA of their plans to convert
37 tons of uranium-oxide yellowcake into uranium-hexafluoride?
According to the neo-crazies, that yellowcake contains enough fissile material
to make one or two nukes like the one we dropped on Hiroshima.
Well, that's a bit like charging that your neighbor's fish pond contains enough
water to drown one or two children.
So, what's the bottom line? Well, if Bush wins, we invade no-nuke Iran and
the chances of terrorists getting their hands on Korean or Pakistani nukes goes
way up. But if Kerry wins? Stay tuned.