Speculating about Najaf

What happened to Sistani’s “red line?”

4/16/2004 – Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani the leading Shi’ite Muslim cleric in Iraq , has told the United States not to enter the holy city of Najaf in pursuit of Moqtada al-Sadr.

Reports today place the American troops inside Najaf and Karbala. From Juan Cole:

American forces advanced Thursday on key strategic targets in Kufa, Karbala, and the environs of Najaf, where violent clashes broke out. This in the wake of the US dispatch to the south of large numbers of reinforcements. The political offices of Muqtada al-Sadr in the heart of Karbala were razed. The outskirts of Kufa witnessed major battles, and loud explosions were heard near Najaf. The US army also announced that it had undertaken four military operations on Wednesday night in the slums of East Baghdad (Sadr City), in which it killed 10 Sadrist militiamen.

American troops gradually encroached on Najaf on Thursday, establishing control over the headquarters of the provincial governor on the outskirts of the city. In the heavy battles preceding this victory, an estimated 41 Mahdi Army militiamen were killed. US troops then searched the surrounding buildings and placed snipers atop them. Najaf residents were requested in Arabic not to leave their homes, especially in the Ghadir quarter, where the governor’s mansion is situated. Bremer requested the new governor, al-Dhurufi, to disarm the Army of the Mahdi. Loud explosions and the heavy exchange of fire were heard in Najaf, causing the deaths as so far reported of 4 Iraqis, and the wounding of 10. The US troops set up checkpoints on the road between Najaf and Kufa. The army also positions numerous tanks and armored fighting vehicles in the northwest of Najaf, in preparation for an assault on Mahdi Army positions.

This is the first time that American armor has been positioned in al-Sadrayn Square, about a mile from the shrine of Imam Ali, the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad.

So, does this mean the “red line” moved or that the American military is in Najaf with Sistani’s approval? Is Sistani now aligned with the occupation? It’s difficult to determine what is going on in Iraq with the dearth of actual reporting as reporters hide out in the safety of the Green Zone in Baghdad lest they be kidnapped or killed. It does seem though that Iraqis are lining up in factions that tolerate the occupation (Sistani, the IGC, the Kurds) and those opposed. How about this interesting alliance that seems to be persisting after being forged during the Fallujah massacre and siege:

Iraq Sunnis Host Sadr Followers in Show of Support
May 7, 2004 — By Joseph Logan

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Thousands of supporters of rebel Shi’ite Muslim cleric Moqtada al-Sadr prayed in Sunni mosques in Iraq Friday, in what local leaders called a show of religious unity in the face of Iraq’s occupiers.

The gesture was the latest display of solidarity among Iraq’s Muslims since U.S. forces besieged the Sunni town of Falluja west of Baghdad and faced off with Sadr’s militia in the Shi’ite holy cities of Najaf and Kerbala to the south.

Sadr’s popularity among Shi’ites, who make up about 60 percent of Iraq’s 25 million people, seems to have soared since his uprising began a month ago, particularly among the young and the poor.

Busloads of Sadr’s followers carrying portraits of the young cleric and wearing the insignia of his Mehdi Army militia trooped to the staunchly Sunni Baghdad neighborhood of Aadhamiya to pray in the Abu Hanifa mosque, named for a pre-eminent scholar and thinker of Sunni Islam.

“Yes, yes to Moqtada!” chanted Sadr’s followers who jammed the mosque, outside of which others set up checkpoints to direct traffic and frisked worshippers as they entered from streets where posters bearing Sadr’s face dotted many buildings.

Ahmad Hassan Taha, a Sunni cleric who led prayers at the mosque, said the presence of Sadr’s followers was a message to U.S. forces who are massed around the Shi’ite holy city of Najaf in a bid to crush his insurgency.

“They have tried to sow discord among us, as Sunnis and Shi’ites, and they have failed,” he said, referring to the U.S. occupiers. His words were echoed by Sadr aide Sheikh Abdel Hadi al-Darraji, who told worshippers: “After finishing in Falluja, they have turned to Najaf.”

Several hundred Sadr supporters also prayed in Falluja, an insurgent stronghold that U.S. Marines surrounded and bombed last month after four U.S. contractors were killed and their bodies mutilated in the city.

It seems to me that the unanswered question of the day is where is Sistani?

VOA reports:

Representatives of Iraq’s most influential Shiite leaders are demanding that extremist Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr withdraw his militia units from the holy cities of Najaf and Karbala. The Shiite leaders also want Sadr’s gunmen to stop using the mosques in those cities as arsenals and to return power to Iraqi police and civil defense units. The Shiite leaders are calling for a quick return to U.S.-led negotiations on Iraq’s future.

A representative of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, or SCIRI, which has close ties to Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, told the New York Times newspaper that Iraqi Shiites have overwhelmingly rejected Sadr and his militia’s violence. “He’s one-hundred percent isolated across most of the southern provinces; he’s even isolated in Najaf,” the SCIRI representative said. “The people there regard him as having taken them hostage.”

Notice they carefully refrain from saying they represent Sistani. Also, the SCIRI statement about Sadr’s isolation is so much BS. As Read Jarrar wrote:

The situation of Falluja and Najaf isn’t getting any better, but I still believe that the real crisis is the Najaf one; Falluja is a smaller conflict for sure.

The deep disagreement between AsSadr and the SCIRI is kind of historical, the older generation of both Sadr and Hakim were not the best friends ever, Mohammad Mohammad Sadiq AsSadr (the one assassinated in the late 90s, the father of Muqtada) used to criticize the general policy of SCIRI at his time, and some underground rumors accuses the Ayato Allah AlHakim (the one assassinated last year, the brother of the Current GC member AlHakim) of helping in a way or another in killing the old Sadr. When the American administration approved the return of Badr Militias (The SCIRI militias) from Iran after the end of this war, small conflicts started in the Shia areas that maybe was one of the reasons for the establishment of the Mahdi Armi (AsSadr militias). At that time the only militias in Iraq were Badr and the FIF (Chalabi’s militias), and both were approved and backed up by the American Army…

AsSadr and SCIRI are the two main Shia parties controlling the southern region of Iraq now, but the party and militias of AsSadr are much more popular, I can say that the real center of AsSadr is Amara (northern to Basra) where no one can notice a single evidence that SCIRI has any activities there, they have a real isolated small office and a mosque that they prey in, but when we speak about the main center of SCIRI we are speaking about Najaf, Najaf is the Holy-City of Shia, The Imam Ali is buried there, (Karbala is the second holy-city where AlHusien and AlAbbas are buried), AsSadr took AlKufa (which is a small town attached to AnNajaf) as his center, the main mosque of AlKufa was the one his father used to give his last Friday Prayer speech before his murder, it is an important Islamic symbol too. The thing I’m trying to say is that AsSadr is active and powerful even in the central city of the SCIRI.

The last Friday prayed speech (which is the most important political indication) witnessed the first in-public criticism of the policy of AsSadr, the SCIRI spokesman indirectly announced the beginning of the new Shia-Shia conflict. From the SCIRI position, I think they find themselves committed to criticizing any anti-occupation movement, because they are the main player in the GC.

There is something that I used to say one year ago, and I’m still repeating it… The “real” war in Iraq didn’t happen yet. I still think the American administration is underestimating what can a person like AsSadr do, and starting a Shia-Shia conflict will only increase the size of explosion.

I think if we were separating the players into pro and anti occupation bins, Sadr and the Sunnis line up as anti and SCIRI and Sistani are making pro-occupation moves, which means the Shia split Raed wrote about is in danger of becoming a reality. How and if the Iraqi people in general divide up into these camps remains to be seen,but it seems reasonable to say that they are divided more by the degree of their opposition to the occupation than by any religious differences.