Smoke and Mirrors: Operation “Lightning”

Operation “Lightning” has supposedly been launched and the first casualties have been a 3 Iraqi guards killed by an insurgent car bomb at the Iraqi Ministry of Oil on Palestine Street in Baghdad and a British soldier killed by a roadside bomb in the Sadrist stronghold of Amara.

Oil Wars makes an interesting point about the so-called “cordon” of some 40,000 Iraqi troops backed by the Americans around Baghdad:

This is just so off the wall on so many levels. First, even if they did seal off Baghdad how exactly does that help them? There are just as many insurgents inside Baghdad as there are outside. So what is this going to accomplish – insurgent Ali in Baghdad won’t be able to visit his cousin, insurgent Omar, over in Ramadi?

Secondly, given that the U.S couldn’t even cordon off Fallujah properly and most of the insurgents there got out what makes anyone think that 40,000 Iraqi government troops can effectively cordon off Baghdad? Lets keep in mind out of any given 40,000 Iraqi troops probably at least 20,000 of them are working for the insurgents. Not to mention, if you have all these troops spread out to make a circle around Baghdad they will have to be in small isolated groups that will make easy pickings for the insurgents. Lets see how long the 40,000 saps who get assigned to this detail agree to put up with that.

Quite frankly, this shows that things in Iraq are in even worse shape than I had thought.

Pre-destruction, Fallujah was a town of 300,000 souls, 70-90% of whom were thought to have fled before the cordon went up. Baghdad is a city of 5 million. Do the math.

UPDATE: Well, things are off to a predictable start:

  • Before dawn, insurgents attacked an Iraqi army checkpoint in Youssifiyah, 20 kilometers (12 miles) south of Baghdad, killing nine soldiers and injuring one, said Dr. Dawood Al Taaei of nearby Mahmoudiya hospital.
  • Gunmen killed two police sergeants employed by the Iraqi Cabinet in a drive-by shooting Sunday in Dora, said police Capt. Firas Qaiti.
  • Another two police commandos were killed and five injured in a car bomb blast at 11 a.m. (0700GMT) at Madain about 20 kilometers (14 miles) southeast of Baghdad, police Col. Selam Mehmood.
  • A suicide car bomber, apparently targeting a U.S. convoy, exploded his vehicle Sunday and killed two Iraqis and injured nine others in northern Iraq, said police Brig. Sarhat Qadir.

    The attack happened near the headquarters of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan in Tuz Khormato, south of Kirkuk, 290 kilometers (180 miles) north of Baghdad, said Qadir.