I’m a little sick of hearing how Iran is to blame for rising oil prices.
This week we’ve gotten a crystal clear indicator of the true cause, and it can be summed up elegantly over the past two trading days.
Yesterday: Iranian President Ahmadinejad sends a concilliatory letter to the Bush administration, suggesting possible solutinos for the current dispute. The price of oil drops precipitously. The article of the day is Crude Eases on Possible Iran Progress.
Today: The price of oil spikes back up. What’s the reason?
If the AP headline is to be believed, Oil Prices Rise Above $71 on Iran Worries. So what did those pesky Iranians do? They brought the market down yesterday and brought it up today… shouldn’t that prove the case that the high oil prices are largely Iran’s fault?
Actually, no. The answer to what Iran did today was “nothing at all”. The last thing we’ve heard out of Iran is still that letter that drove prices down. The actual cause is that the US rejected any notion that this letter might be a positive step. In short, the Iranian President offered the US an olive branch, and Condi just slapped it out of his hand.
Ultimately, nothing Iran has done is causing the price of oil to rise, it’s the Bush Administration’s saber-rattling that’s largely to blame for any “war premium” oil and gasoline are seeing. Let’s face facts: if another war happens, it’s not going to be Ahmadinejad that starts it.