Attacking Iran Would Be a Gift to the Ayatollahs

Nobel Laureate Shirin Ebadi, according to a piece by Nazila Fathi at Foreign Policy, has been perpetually harassed by the Iranian regime, which hates her political activism and dissent. She now lives a life in exile, still fighting to expose Tehran’s human rights abuses. But now she says a more troubling problem has arisen:

War with Israel, she says, may rescue the Iranian regime at a time when it is extremely unpopular at home and is clinging to power with an iron fist. “It is the only thing that can save the regime,” she said. “A war will stir nationalistic feelings and rally the people behind the government to defend the country. It will be catastrophic for the [Iranian] people, the country, and the region, but it will save Iran’s rulers.”

Official sources in Washington have repeatedly cited this as just one reason, among many, to refrain from bombing Iran for a nuclear weapons program it doesn’t have. Demonstrated in part by what went on during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, US officials (most of them, believe it or not, oppose military attack on Iran) note that however unhappy the Iranian populace is with the regime in Tehran, an attack from the outside would rally Iranian behind their government. Like the lies we heard about being greeted as liberators in Iraq, Iranians would not lie back and capitulate. They would retaliate.

A recent report by former government officials, national security experts and retired military officers released earlier this month found that “US and/or Israeli strikes are more likely to unify the population behind the government than to generate resistance,” as the neoconservatives believe they can generate. The assessment also found that to achieve anything more than a temporary setback in Iran’s nuclear program would require a full scale military invasion, occupation, and regime change. And “given Iran’s large size and population, and the strength of Iranian nationalism, we estimate that the occupation of Iran would require a commitment of resources and personnel greater than what the US has expended over the last 10 years in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined.”

The report’s warnings didn’t end there. A US and/or Israeli strike – which the Obama administration as virtually ruled out but which could very well occur in a Romney administration – would also trigger an uncontrollable region wide war fought with both conventional means and unconventional, guerrilla warfare retaliation throughout the region, prompting huge increases in the recruitment capabilities of terrorist groups like al-Qaeda. Finally, such an attack would incentivize Iran to kick out international inspectors and to reconstitute their defunct nuclear weapons program.

9 thoughts on “Attacking Iran Would Be a Gift to the Ayatollahs”

  1. What Iran lacks in technological weapons advancement it excels in pure nationalism without any allegiance to religion, but a pure love for its country. 2700 years of war throughout the history of Iran has hardened its people to a readiness for any conflict. Iranians mainly call themselves Vatan-Parast. This literally means a being that prays to its homeland.

    1. Iran has a long and rich history which is generally ignored or worse, rewritten, by those who are afraid of what it would have to teach us. Not many people know that the first female Generals and Admirals, Soldiers, and Nobles were Persians. This was frightening to patriarchal societies such as the Greeks.

      Arteshbod Pantea – Commander of the Anushiya (Immortals) during Cyrus the Great's reign.

      Grand Admiral Artemisia – Rose to prominence during the reign of Khashayar Shah (whom the Greeks for some reason call "Xerxes")

      Commander Apranik – Commanded a large Sassanid contingent during the Arab invasions, transitioned to a guerrilla campaign after the Persian defeat.

      Banu & Babak Khoramdin; Legendary resistance fighters also during the Arab invasions. Banu was quite the marksman with her bow and arrow.

      Azad Deylami: Another famous member of the resistance. She became a symbol of the Persian resistance.

      Azadokht Shahbanu: Queen, married to Shapour the Great. Skilled with the sword. This is during the time when Romans attempted many times to conquer Persia and take her people as slaves (failed, too). They were shocked to find Persian Women in armor, fighting side by side with their men, in great numbers.

      The Cyrus Cylinder: regarded by many historians as the first declaration of human rights.

      There are many more great women in Iran's history. People who refused to bow to the Arabs, Mongols, Greeks, or anyone else regardless of their level of brutality.

      Iran has survived grain mills being run on the blood of their executed people. They have survived entire cities being exterminated and burned to the ground. They have survived far more than that and Iranian culture, language, and identity today is stronger than ever. Nothing short of making the entire geography of the region uninhabitable to humans will destroy Iran or meld her character to suit foreign interests.

  2. "which the Obama administration as virtually ruled out "

    This is ruminant evacuation. Obama merely wants to attack Iran in HIS way on HIS time table, not Israel's.

    This PRESUMPTION that Obama doesn't want war with Iran is unsupported by ANY evidence other than the mere fact he hasn't done it YET. And I'm getting tired of hearing it said as if it were as much "fact" as the assertions that Iran is "pursuing nuclear weapons."

  3. Obama "ruled out" any American or Israeli attack on Iran. Are you joking?

    Don't turn this into a partisan Obama vs Romney issue. No matter who wins in November, we will be at war with Iran in 2013.

  4. We don't need another war!!!Let Israel and Iran or whatever country in the ME take care of their own problems!! We have too many here who have and still are suffering from the agonies of war–why should we send more of our sons and daughters only to be killed or maimed!! God bless them all and may there be PEACE TO ALL.

  5. US has suffered enough waging senseless wars. If Israel and US have not learned a lesson, they will when they attack Iran

Comments are closed.