Donald Trump has developed a habit throughout this war of claiming that a deal with Iran is “imminent,” only for the conflict to devolve back into chaos just days later. Similarly, he has routinely made maximalist threats against Iran — “A whole civilization will die tonight,” — only to repeatedly back away and pursue diplomacy instead.
Given this context, it is easy to understand why we must view this latest announcement from Trump with skepticism until there is confirmation from all sides.
On Thursday, the United States had reportedly planned a major escalation in the war. Not only was the military preparing to launch major airstrikes within Iran, but they were also threatening to invade Kharg Island, an island off Iran’s coast in the Persian Gulf. This island is where Iran exports roughly 90% of its oil from.
This would have been one of the biggest acts of escalation we have seen throughout this entire conflict, as an invasion and occupation of Kharg Island would likely entail American boots on the ground. The goal of such an operation would be to destroy a major stronghold of Iran’s economic leverage. However, the chances of catastrophe are incredibly high due to Iran’s ability to attack an invading force with drone barrages.
Thankfully, this escalation was called off by Donald Trump. Much like with his maximalist threats of the past, he backed away at the final moment while claiming a “deal” had been reached.
This announcement from Trump comes amidst a chaotic past few days in the administration. Trump decided this week to engage in a reckless escalation, ramping up bombings across Iran to levels not seen during this ceasefire. The plan, as usual with this administration, was unclear, and there seemed to be a willing lack of strategy.
Now, after two straight nights of desperate flailing, Trump is once again claiming to have a deal.
Trump’s statement
Trump said on Truth Social Thursday afternoon:
“Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others. The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.”
This statement shares many of the same characteristics as the other proclamations we’ve seen throughout this conflict. Trump is framing the dynamic in such a way that portrays Iran as having caved to all of our demands, and that by calling off the strikes, Trump is essentially showing them mercy. This is what Trump would like people to believe.
Due to his track record over the course of this war, we unfortunately cannot take him at his word. Before Thursday’s announcement, Trump had claimed a deal was imminent 38 separate times throughout the war, according to a count conducted by CNN. In the aftermath of each of these proclamations, we have not witnessed any such deal take shape.
The reason for Trump’s lack of follow through is unclear. It is fair to suggest that he fears getting drawn even further into this conflict and risk getting bogged down. However, there is a palpable desperation coming from the administration. They, like the rest of us, must understand at this point that this war has been an unmitigated disaster. We have gained nothing and lost a tremendous amount of standing in the region.
There are also those who suggest that his public statements have been intentionally optimistic in an effort to sway the markets. The oil market in particular has stayed relatively stable and has shown that they take Trump’s word very seriously. One of the main reasons that oil prices have remained where they are in recent weeks is because of the optimism being intentionally signaled by the White House.
Although there is no public evidence to suggest an imminent breakthrough in negotiations, the oil markets seem to be putting a lot of stock in the Truth Social posts of Donald Trump. This could very well turn out to be naive. As the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and under Iranian control, and the global oil supply continues to shrink, the markets may soon be forced to wake up to the economic realities of the situation we’re in.
Is the 39th time the charm?
The details of this supposed deal are still largely unclear. Axios’ Barak Ravid, who has acted as a mouthpiece for the White House throughout this war, reported that this deal was a Memorandum of Understanding which would extend the ceasefire for 60 days. During this ceasefire, the U.S. and Iran would negotiate over Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile.
In Trump’s statement, he emphasized that both Israeli and Iranian leadership had agreed to this deal. This claim was instantly met with conflicting reports from all angles.
Israeli news outlet i24 News reported that an Israeli source said:
“Everyone lives off Trump’s tweets. We need to hear what the Iranians publish to know whether the president is indeed accurate in his assessment. Experience shows that not so much…”
They also quoted two Israeli officials as saying:
“We are surprised by Trump’s announcement, we need to see what Iranians publish to determine if its accurate,”
Meanwhile, Iranian media also struck a similarly argumentative tone. Fars News Agency, which is closely linked to the Iranian government, claimed that a deal had largely been agreed upon about two weeks ago, and that the U.S. had slipped in some last-minute alterations. Iran claims to have then halted negotiations in response.
This information would track with what was recently reported by Drop Site News. Drop Site said on X that in a phone call between Trump and Netanyahu on Thursday, Trump assured the Israeli Prime Minister that any potential deal would be sure to meet Israel’s hardline demands, including the removal of all of Iran’s enriched uranium, the dismantling of their enrichment facilities, limits on missile production, and an end to Iran’s support for regional proxies.
Iran has made it clear throughout the conflict that these are non-starters for serious negotiations.
So where are we?
It is incredibly unclear as to where negotiations stand. As of now, the Trump administration seems to be floundering. With the economic ramifications of this war still looming, Trump seems desperate to find a way out.
Unfortunately for him, we are stuck in a cycle of his own making. No amount of bluster or tough talk can wash away the state of the war on the ground. Those military and economic realities need to be understood if we are to find a sensible path out of this conflict.
Nolan Denaro is a paleolibertarian political commentator and host of “The Quest For Clarity” podcast, which can be found on YouTube and Spotify. He writes on Substack, and his work can be found at nolandenaro.substack.com. He can be reached for correspondence by email at nolansdenaro@icloud.com.
