Rome ruled mankind, but it was also its cesspool and its seeping ulcer. It reeked of death and corpses. Death’s shadow lay over its decomposing life… All that passed for life in this capital of the earth seemed suddenly like some kind of mad processional for capering buffoons, a dance of mindless clowns, and a bloody orgy that had to end by its own excess.
~Quo Vadis, Henryk Sienkiewicz
For those, particularly on American media, asking: what do the Americans get out of this MOU with Iran?
The Americans get out of the war; that’s what they get out of the MOU. When you lose a war the only thing you get out of the war is that you get to get out of the war.
This is the same confusion and curiosity expressed in American media when the US retreated from Afghanistan in 2021, a perplexed inability, the air in the imperial bubble has gone stale if you will, to understand that this is what defeat looks like.
To Donald Trump’s credit at least he got out, and no it doesn’t make up for this war or the past year and a half of his foreign policy. As hard as it is to imagine any of his predecessors getting into a war with Iran, and Bush, Obama and Biden faced heavy pressure to do so, it is equally hard to imagine any of Trump’s predecessors accepting defeat, reality and changing direction.
If Trump has decided this war and peace will be his legacy, then he will spend the next 2 ½ years protecting it and creating the context for a Vance/America First vs Rubio/Neocon, Zionist, Never-Trumper contest for the 2028 GOP nomination (if that is the case, Rubio may leave the admin early “in protest”).
The only thing we have to understand Donald Trump is his self-interest. He has no other loyalty, including the Republican Party, Israel and all that Miriam Adelson and other donors represent. If Trump has decided that this war and peace will be his legacy, we may see a break from Israel that would have been impossible to imagine previously.
This will set much of the context for American politics for the next four years, including hardening the Democratic Party’s pro-Israel stance in opposition to 90+ % of their members. It will also cause a desperate Israel to lash out. It certainly won’t lead to introspection and reflection in Israel, just as the American defeat by Iran won’t inspire soul-searching in much of Washington, DC (although the war confirms most Americans’ anti-war positions outside of DC). In DC, there are already comments circulating about Republicans joining Democrats to impeach Donald Trump in the next congressional term to punish him for his betrayal.
There is a lot of argument against the above wager of a split with Israel, however great or small. The possibility of a return to war, particularly after the elections or due to some belief that energy markets and supplies have stabilized, is considerable. As is the possibility that a final deal is never reached and this week’s signed phase one of the MOU establishes a modus vivendi that doesn’t end the war, but ensures commerce into and out of the Gulf and prevents destruction of energy infrastructure in the region.
Finally, a reorientation in the Middle East fits with this administration’s National Security Strategy (NSS), which called for a remaking of the American Empire by addressing overextension and anchoring US interests and resources in the Western Hemisphere. It is a mistake to view the NSS reconfiguration of the American empire as a retreat, but rather it should be understood as an acceptance of the multipolar world and an American plan to dominate it. Below the cabinet level there are many who have these views, such as Elbridge Colby and Mike Dimino at the Department of Defense. There are rumors that Rubio, Hegseth and/or Waltz will be shown the door.
If this is the end of the war, Iran’s victory firmly establishes it as a world power. This is a clear defeat for the American empire. For the Americans, there is no alternative to this loss. The administration may use this defeat then to remake US foreign policy and global footprint as has been suggested by America First adherents since Trump’s first term. That’s a big speculation, as it goes against decades of entrenched imperial interests throughout American politics, finance, media and industry, is counter to US electoral reality, and relies upon Donald Trump’s sincerity. Yet, it is a possibility, a possibility that was never possible with any of Trump’s predecessors.
I went through the proposed MOU today, point by point, with Gary Villapiano on the Daniel Davis Deep Dive Show:
Gary and I also spoke about the Ukraine-Russia War which is steadily becoming an escalatory nightmare:
Reprinted with permission from Matt’s Thoughts on War and Peace.
Matthew Hoh is the Associate Director of the Eisenhower Media Network. Matt is a former Marine Corps captain, Afghanistan State Department officer, a disabled Iraq War veteran and is a Senior Fellow Emeritus with the Center for International Policy. He writes at Substack.
