Reprinted from John’s Substack:
On 30 October 2025, I was on the “Deep Dive” with Lt. Col. (ret.) Danny Davis. In addition to talking about the usual issues, we talked early in the show about President Trump’s false claims that the US has more nuclear weapons than Russia and that the Russians are testing nuclear weapons. In fact, Russia has several hundred more nuclear weapons than the US and Moscow has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1990. And there is no evidence that Russia is getting ready to do a nuclear test. The US has not tested a nuclear weapon since 1992 and there is no need to start testing now.
I also disputed the widely held belief that the new nuclear weapons that Russia is developing are going to shift the nuclear balance in a meaningful way. The fact is that both sides have so many deliverable nuclear weapons that there is no way either side can fight and win a nuclear war, even if one side adds more deliverable warheads. We live in a MAD world – a world where both Russia and the US have the capability to turn the other side into a smoking, radiating ruin, no matter who gets in the first strike. In other words, both sides have an assured destruction capability. The Russians can add all the Burevestnik cruise missiles and Poseidon drones they want to their nuclear arsenal, but that will not give them the capability to win a nuclear war. It will just make the rubble bounce higher.
