Reprinted from John’s Substack:
On 12 April 2026, I was on the “Switzerland” podcast with Josh Landis, one of the world’s leading experts on Syria, and the host Tom Switzer. In the wake of the failed negotiations in Islamabad, President Trump announced that the US was going to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which means that Iranian oil will no longer flow out of the Persian Gulf into world oil markets. No more oil profits for Tehran.
The underlying assumption is that this policy will inflict massive punishment on Iran, causing it to surrender to US and Israeli demands. I made the case that not only will it not work as planned, but it will work against the US because that Iranian oil is essential for limiting the economic damage being done to the world economy. Of course, this is why the US has allowed Iranian oil to flow into the global market up until now. As I have emphasized many times, the Trump administration is playing a losing hand.
Josh, Tom, and I talked about numerous other issues regarding the Middle East.
