Reprinted from John’s Substack:
On 30 April 2026, I was on “Deep Dive” with Lt. Col. (ret.) Danny Davis talking about what President Trump is likely to do in Iran over the next few weeks and the consequences of that war on the global order.
It is very difficult to know for sure what Trump will do in Iran, as he is desperate and he was foolish enough to start this disastrous war in the first place. My guess is that he will continue the naval blockade until he is forced to accept defeat and cut a deal because the world economy is about to go over the precipice. There is no way, however, that he wins this war.
It is stunning how unsuccessful the US and Israel have been in this war. Not only have they failed to achieve any of the four major goals laid out before the war, but Iran now has a stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz, and — as Danny and I talked about at some length — the US has wrecked the security architecture that it built up with the Gulf states before 28 February 2026. And don’t forget that the US, which has been committed to pivoting to East Asia to contain China since the early days of President Trump’s first term (2017), is now pivoting away from Asia to the vortex in the Middle East. What a disaster!
