The Open Society and Its Enemies

Matt Welch notes a most interesting trend for the Bush years:

    Number of documents classified by the Executive Branch, annually:
    2001: 8.7 million
    2002: 11.3 million
    2003: 14.2 million
    2004: 15.7 million

    Number of documents declassified by the Executive Branch, annually:
    2001: 100 million
    2002: 44 million
    2003: 43 million
    2004: 28 million

For those keeping score, that’s an 80% increase in annual classifications and a 72% decrease in annual declassifications in one term. Given that this administration has already attempted to retroactively classify publicly available documents, I expect mandatory mass amnesia by 2008.

UPDATE 3:45 CT: Some interesting comments in the Hit & Run thread.

One commenter includes the following figures for Clinton’s second term:

    Number of documents classified by the Executive Branch, annually:
    1997: 6.5 million
    1998: 7.3 million
    1999: 8.0 million
    2000: 11.1 million

    Number of documents declassified by the Executive Branch, annually:
    1997: 204 million
    1998: 193 million
    1999: 127 million
    2000: 75 million

Score: a 71% increase in classifications and a 63% decrease in declassifications. Hey, I never said Clinton was great, either.

Other commenters point out that since there are a finite number of classified documents, and many of the earliest declassifications were probably of the oldest, least exciting material lying around, a steady decrease in declassifications might be perfectly natural. So analyzing declassifications on numbers alone may not reveal that much.

But as for classifications, I think it’s important to look not only at rates of increase, but also at absolute differences. Yes, Clinton’s classifying increased significantly during his second term, but it still peaked at 11.1 million. Bush was at 15.7 million by the end of his first term. That’s a lot of ass-covering for both, but for Bush especially.