“Attacking Iran Makes No Strategic Sense”

The Nation’s Robert Dreyfuss with one take on the potential for a US-Israeli attack on Iran:

Needless to say, an Israeli attack on Iran would unleash catastrophic consequences, completely apart from whether or not Israel could actually do the job effectively.

Whereas Israel’s attack would be limited in scope and duration, an American attack on Iran would probably last four to six weeks, and it would target Iran’s air defense, air and naval units, military and intelligence command-and-control centers, bases of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, and important transportation and communication systems, along with weeks of pounding many of the more than fifty sites inside Iran involved in that country’s nuclear program. In contrast, Israel would likely be able to strike once, targeting only a handful of Iran’s most important sites, in Isfahan and Natanz.

But an Israeli attack would lead to a regional conflagration, in which Iran would use its proxies and allies and, most likely, terrorist units against US and Israeli targets across the region and even worldwide. Hezbollah, in southern Lebanon, would strike Israel, leading to what would end up being an Israeli war against both Syria and Lebanon. Iran’s allies in Iraq and Afghanistan could launch attacks against US and NATO forces there, and there’s a strong likelihood that Iran would try to attack the oil facilities of the Arab countries across the Persian Gulf. The ripples would spread from there, including soaring oil prices (in the range of $150 to $200 per barrel). For all these reasons, without definitive proof that Iran has actually acquired a bomb and that Iran is planning to use it, an attack by either the United States or Israel makes no strategic sense, especially since many analysts believe that even a sustained attack might not succeed in doing anything more than delaying Iran’s program while convincing Tehran to accelerate it and to move its facilities underground into hardened sites, as it appears to be doing in its new facility outside Qom.

President Obama, while pushing to isolate Iran and impose even tougher sanctions, isn’t likely to attack Iran. (That’s not true for some of his Republican rivals in 2012.) In addition, since 2007, under both President Bush and President Obama, the Pentagon has delivered strong warnings to Israel not attack Iran under any circumstances, because the consequences would be so severe. No doubt, those warnings stand. Which is why, for my part at least, I don’t believe Israel would risk an attack on Iran by itself.

26 thoughts on ““Attacking Iran Makes No Strategic Sense””

  1. There can be no doubt – whomever might be president, no matter what party, he has a hard script to follow – Israel Uber Alles

    SOmeone heroic needs to put the barking dog Netanyahu to sleep already. And the traitors that have taken over our gov't 10 years ago to steer it in its direction towards Hell – need to be called out and shipped off to Israel in pine boxes.
    How much profit was had over militarizing America, from giant metropolises to the smallest village hamlets? To making the Arab muslims hate us, the way they hate Israel?

  2. It doesn't matter how many Americans or Arabs die, so long as the chosen people sleep a little easier at night.

    We need to end this parasitic relationship NOW.

    1. Israelis will never, ever sleep more easily at night. If they ever did sleep easily at night, then they would no longer be Israelis!

  3. are you suggesting Iran is actually weaponizing its program then?

    may i remind you that so far there has been no evidence that iran has any weapons program or intention for a weapons program. the NIE claimed that Iran stopped its weapons program in 2003 but failed to say what that so called program encompassed. The fact is there has never been a weapons program in Iran and as far as I know only brief discussions of it among the top brass of the iranian military AFTER the US invaded Iraq…..The clerics quickly ruled out building nukes as a deterrent as un-islamic.

    As far as I know, a discussion is not necessarily evidence of intention, let alone participation

  4. The Goal of AIPAC operatives will be to cause American casualties in order to cause Americans to fear and hate the Irani.

    The Chicken Halk USSA Congress will take their bribes from AIPAC and condemn are kids in the Service to a horrible death. They will be sacrificed on the fiery alter to corporote warfare and America will bury thousands more of it's youth who faught for the profit of the Corporation while AIPAC Chicken Halk USSA Politicians defecate on our Constitutional rights and murder Millions.

  5. At best I have another 50 years left on this planet. Somehow I doubt that we will have peace in this area in my lifetime.

    I say this for one simple reason. Israel doen't want peace and with all the nukes they have they are not going anywere. (Well, that and I don't buy into the end of the world tripe.)

    Possibly the only hope would be a complete financial collapse in the West and for Russin and China to then force Israel and the US into standing down.

    1. Thus far, I believe that Russia and China have both shown a great deal of restraint in dealing with the empire. The problem is that the empire is now getting dangerously close to surrounding those two countries, and one or both of them are going to have to eventually put their feet down and say "enough." When this happens, then things will indeed get very dangerous. Are the elite interests in the empire willing to risk human civilization in an insane quest to rule the entire planet? The Russians backed down during the Cuban missile crisis because they were at America's front door and knew that it wasn't worth a nuclear war. Now we have the reverse, so do the people running the empire now believe that the Russians will just back down when their existence is at stake? I'm really afraid to know the answer.

        1. "…Are the elite interests in the empire willing to risk human civilization in an insane quest to rule the entire planet?… To quote…wait…I used to know her name… "You betcha!!!"

          The elites have no qualms about reducing the overall population of the world. They foolishly believe that their wealth will protect them from what will happen. It won't.

    2. I often think in a similar way, although I used to think that I would be lucky and not have to live through the final act – I don't think I'll be so lucky,anymore. But I won't stop speaking out against Zionism and Corporate facism, even if thats not enough by far…

  6. since when does it have to make sense ? did Iraq make strategic sense ? did occupying Afghanistan make strategic sense ?

    I guess it depends on who you ask, war always makes sense to the military industrial complex.

    1. I think from day one taking on Iran has always been the goal. We might have pulled a lot of troops out of Iraq, but all the air bases are still there just waiting to be used. Afghanistan the same. Now we have the so called post Iraq surge. That will allow us to have the forces in place in short order.

  7. As for the "strong warnings" from the Pentagon not to attack Iran, I caulk that up to meaningless. I don't think the current powers that be in Israel have any more respect for the Obama Administration and/or the Bureaucracy than the "neo-cons" do. What will the 'real' consequences be if Israel does attack Iran? Is the US going to shoot Israeli jets out of the sky as they fly over Iraq? Is the US Congress going to cut back on aid to Israel? Seriously…at worst, it will be a public "that was bad" speech…and based on the political dynamics of the 2012 election, it might not even be that…

  8. big deal if the iranians are makeing nukes…the zionist have them and they have the full force of the US arsenal on their side….

    the zionists which are a very small group of humans is hell bent on controlling everything they can get their hands on

    and are more than happy ti kill at will

  9. I am wondering how the hundreds of thousands of Israelis who have been protesting their economy are going to feel about getting involved in a very expensive full-blown war at this point in time. Remember the demonstrations just a few months ago: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/sep/04/israe

    And if the Israelis think that they are going to get away with lobbing a few bombs at Iran without any form of major retaliation, they are extremely naive.

    1. AIPAC controls both the Senate and Congress, the US taxpayers will pay to maintain the apartheid regime.

  10. obama shook the hand of ghadaffi two years before he participated in his murder. and he struts around having the time of his life. this is a moral and legal issue. not merely "pragmatic". our foreign policy is illegal and immoral. shock and awe was a crime of the highest magnitude. this nation is morally bankrupt. it tramples millions as it pursues its psychopathic narcissism. we are indeed exceptional.

  11. May the God of Abraham – Who punished the Israelis by sending them into slavery in Egypt for 400 years – now punish the Communist warmongering war criminals in Israel for the crimes they commit against all of their neighbors – for the LIES they tell – for the MURDERS they commit – for the land that they steal.

    1. Fair enough, but please – the Israelis are not 'Communist' warmongering war criminals.

      They are 'free market scam' warmongering war criminals….

  12. Actually it does.

    Forget Israel.

    The American policymaking elite are geared to the domination of Eurasia and takeover of the "Heartland" of Eurasia for doctrinal reasons. Iran provides one of the gateways to that Heartland. Since the government of Great Russia realises this and is getting tough the consequences are extremely serious.

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