According to Bonnie S. Glaser at the Center for Strategic International Studies (no relation), next year “could see a shift in Chinese foreign policy based on the new leadership’s judgment that it must respond to a U.S. strategy that seeks to prevent China’s reemergence as a great power.”
Signs of a potential harsh reaction are already detectable. The U.S. Asia pivot has triggered an outpouring of anti-American sentiment in China that will increase pressure on China’s incoming leadership to stand up to the United States. Nationalistic voices are calling for military countermeasures to the bolstering of America’s military posture in the region and the new U.S. defense strategic guidelines.
She goes on to explain that “a hostile and overbearing” U.S. posture “would confirm Chinese suspicions” and “cement the emergence of a U.S.-China Cold War.”
In a post at this blog almost a year ago, I wrote of a new Cold War emerging between the U.S. and China as a direct result of the Obama administration’s decidedly antagonistic approach in his first term. The so-called Asia pivot is an aggressive policy that involves surging American military presence throughout the region – in the Philippines, Japan, Australia, Guam, South Korea, Singapore, etc. – in an unprovoked scheme to deny China its gradually increasing military and economic influence. The posture is quite transparently reflective of what has been U.S. Grand Strategy for decades: maintain global hegemony through force, coercion, and military presence the world over.
It has already manifested in some troubling ways. The flare up with the Philippines in disputed waters of the South China Sea could very well have ended much worse. And the U.S. and China are competing in Africa in both a geo-political way and a strictly economic way. Rhetoric from Washington has been aggressive. None of this seems to be constructive and the negative ramifications of the U.S.-Soviet Cold War – both foreign and domestic – were horrendous. Yet for some reason Obama thinks it right to maintain “a hostile and overbearing” posture.