At a recent seminar sponsored by the two primary Washington think tanks, one American and another European, the subject of the war in Ukraine was discussed, as was how two upcoming significant elections in the European Parliament in June and the U.S. President in November might affect Western support for Ukraine and thus the course of the war.
The questions proposed for discussion were: What is public opinion on both sides of the Atlantic during these critical elections? Are Americans souring on the war? Are Europeans prepared to take the slack if the United States leaves the field? What will it take for both European and American leaders to continue supporting Ukraine?
None of these questions was related to the search for ideas on ending this war that might escalate to nuclear WWIII. According to the seminar’s agenda, this was of no interest to the panelists or the audience, but as it turned out, on the second point, I was wrong with one caveat. This interest was expressed during the follow-up reception when some people walked to me and thanked for raising this issue during the Q&A.
After hearing the academic analysis by all panelists of opinion polls in the U.S. and Europe, which showed mainly what to expect in case of Trump’s victory and whether there is growing fatigue of this war, my question was directed to all of them: wouldn’t it be essential to conduct another poll asking about the roots of the current crisis; do they believe that Putin wants to restore or even expand Soviet empire after victory in Ukraine, and how to end this war that might escalate into Armageddon?
I further used 2 minutes to present my opinion until being interrupted by the moderator. This is, at least, what I managed to squeeze: the leading cause of the current crisis happened in February 2014, when the democratically elected President of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich, who was against his country joining NATO, was overthrown by the coup plotters and his Western backers who were for the Ukraine’s entrance to this alliance. I also added that before the coup, the overwhelming majority of Ukrainians, especially in the South-East region, were against joining NATO.
Before being interrupted, I was able to quote some prominent American experts who were against NATO eastern expansion in the first place, like NY Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan, who said that NATO expansion is “a curiously ironic outcome that at the end of the Cold War, we might face a nuclear Armageddon” and George Kennan about this being a “fatal foreign policy error.”
I wanted to end this sort of introduction to my question with a quote from a Congressional hearing when then-Senator Joseph Biden, while calling Moynihan “the single most erudite” and “informed person serving in the Senate,” said he disagreed with him and instead pushed together with the Secretary of State Madeleine Albright for NATO expansion, but the moderator stopped me.
It looked like the panelists were unprepared to answer my questions or engage in a serious discussion. Only one of them mumbled something, saying that Putin’s words about Russians and Ukrainians being the same people were the main reason for his invasion.
At this point, the seminar ended, but, as I mentioned earlier, the most interesting part occurred during the reception when several audience members walked to me to continue this discussion, some honestly explaining why they didn’t ask similar questions.
According to them, nowadays, in Washington this could get you a “useful idiot” label at best or “Putin’s stooge” at worst. The “Russiagate” saga started by Hillary Clinton during the 2016 Presidential campaign is alive and well.
Fortunately, many prominent experts, both in the U.S. and Europe, have enough courage and expertise to provide answers and ideas for solutions to this crisis about how to avoid a worst-case scenario. The present Western leadership is not listening to them, so one thing that the organizer of this seminar got right is that the upcoming 2024 elections might be existential for our survival.
That is if the smart people with a strategic vision got elected and attract foreign policy advisors among these experts.
Edward Lozansky is President of American University in Moscow.
“if the smart people with a strategic vision got elected”
As Andrei Martyanov points out every day, there are no such people in the West (certainly not Trump). So “that ain’t gonna happen.”
Not having a strategy, not knowing what they’re doing or what they’re doing it for is the modus operandi of the West. Not only in the US, in Europe as well. Under the assumption that wilful stupdity is worse than dumbness Europe is worse collectively, because they outsource their strategic thinking to the US and so they know they’re not getting any. Well at least the exceptionally smart among them.
The US and their respective Western coalition partners never have one. Afghanistan, Iraq, Lybia, Syria no strategic level thinking of any sort went into that, nothing, and no sign of any coming.
They don’t have one for Ukraine. Or they’ve now officially adopted magical thinking as a strategy. They don’t have one for Israel, so Israel adopted their wisdom in return. Wider Middle East? Africa? Thinking limited to the question whether bombs or drones and that’s about it. They don’t and won’t have one for China. They only know they should have a war with China. Just because. That fixation is so pervasive that even Mearsheimer can’t get past it and even though no one can doubt his intellect or knowledgeability with a straight face, he neither has anything clever or even sensible to say as to why, how or to what end. Disappoints me to no end, but there you have it. No clue regarding Iran. Well, yes, but should have a war as soon as convenient. And haven’t the foggiest idea about North Korea, but counterproductive ones, so that will probably solve itself.
In the bars (mostly men) and cafes (mostly women) in Buffalo, Brooklyn, and elsewhere where I hang out there are plenty of smart American people with strategic vision. It’s just that they have no interest in becoming involved in traditional politics. Indeed, in this year’s November election most won’t even vote.
The US government , congress and states alI are controlled by Tink tanks and lobbyists.
I don’t know if Daniel Patrick Moynihan would be able to stand up to Biden if he were still living and still a Senator. He was against NATO expansion at the time and that was good.
Biden said NATO expansion had nothing to do with the collapse of the USSR, it has everything to do with it.
I wish there were more Democrats like Dennis Kucinich that would get elected.
Mar 31, 2024 NATO’s ‘Readiness’ Drills Near Russian Border Soon; U.S.-Made Patriot Unit To Be Deployed
NATO nation Netherlands will deploy a U.S.-made Patriot air defence unit near the Russian border. The Dutch defence ministry said its air defence unit will conduct NATO drills in Lithuania. The military drill aims to bolster NATO’S air defences along the eastern flank, as per the Dutch military. The drill also aims to test NATO’s ability to swiftly transport & deploy units to specific areas. Watch this to know more.
https://youtu.be/fqwOx_Cm_as?si=p3-GlDx1Qgimhg52