Reprinted from John’s Substack:
On 10 April 2026, I was on Breaking Points talking about why Trump cannot win against Iran if he goes up the escalation ladder and why his only exit option is to concede defeat. Now that the 11-12 April 2026 US-Iranian negotiations in Islamabad have failed, Trump has decided to escalate and impose a naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. This is not going to cause Iran to surrender. How can it? After all Iran is facing an existential threat and it is winning the war. In fact, blockading Iran is going to have devastating effects on the global economy, which is already in a world of hurt. Trump is only increasing the speed at which the Titanic is heading toward the iceberg.
