Reprinted from John’s Substack:
On 28 April 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking with the Judge about Iran, paying special attention to how Russia is now committed to making sure Iran prevails against the US and Israel.
We spoke about Iran’s latest 3-phase proposal for ending the war, which is anathema to the Trump administration. The first step calls for ending the war and providing Iran with some sort of meaningful assurance that the war will not start up again. That will weaken US leverage over Iran. The second step calls for reaching an agreement on who controls the Strait of Hormuz moving forward. There is no question that will be Iran, with some help from Oman. That outcome will be seen as a defeat for the US and Israel. The third step, which comes late in the game, involves negotiations over the nuclear issue. The US and Israel want that issue at the head of the list, but that is not the way Iran sees it, at least at this point. Plus, the Iranians have made it clear they are not giving up their nuclear enrichment capability, which both Israel and the US demand they do. President Trump will be lucky if he gets an agreement on the nuclear issue that looks like the JCPOA, which he has spent the past ten years trashing.
On top of all this, there are a host of other issues not contained in the latest Iranian proposal that will need to be addressed if there is any hope of getting a genuine settlement to the conflict: 1) the future of US bases in the region, 2) the future of Iranian missiles, 3) the future of Iranian support for Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, 4) frozen Iranian assets, 5) lifting of sanctions on Iran, and 6) reparations to Iran.
And on top of all this. Israel does not want to end the war. It wants to send Iran back to the Stone Age, as Israel Katz, the Israeli defense minister recently made clear. The Israel lobby, with its immense power in Washington, will naturally back Israel to the hilt.
It is hard for me, given these facts of life, to envision a meaningful peace agreement that ends this war in my lifetime. It seems that the best Trump can hope for is to quickly cobble together a partial agreement that opens the Strait and prevents the international economy from going off the precipice. And that must be done immediately, as the damage already done to the world economy is extensive and it is getting worse by the day. I do not see how we get a meaningful agreement on the other key issues, including the matter of nuclear enrichment.
