Reprinted from John’s Substack:
On 12 May 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking with the Judge about the growing realization in the American body politic that not only is the Iran war lost, but the defeat will have disastrous consequences for the US and countries all over the world. Of course, the Judge and virtually all of his regular guests have been saying that for a long time, but many refused to believe that the war was a lost cause. That is no longer the case, as the essay in The Atlantic by the prominent neoconservative Robert Kagan illustrates.
It seems to me, as I noted to the Judge, that the war appears to be having serious negative effects on President Trump. He often looks worn down and sometimes even disoriented. And his comments — especially his Truth Social posts — sound like the ravings of a desperate man, not someone who is in control of the events around him. He surely knows he has no war-winning strategy in Iran and that his presidency is likely to be badly damaged, if not ruined, by this war, which he foolishly started against the advice of his principal advisors.
As I remarked to the Judge, it reminds me of what happened to President Johnson during the Vietnam war. He was sworn in on 20 January 1965 (sixty years to the day before Trump was sworn in for his second term) after winning a landslide victory in the presidential election on 3 November 1964. Johnson was on top of the political world, but then in March 1965, he sent the first US combat troops into South Vietnam and launched the famous “Rolling Thunder” bombing campaign against North Vietnam. In effect, he started a losing war that destroyed his presidency and made his life a living nightmare. It looks like President Trump is heading into a similar situation.
