Reprinted from John’s Substack:
On 2 September 2026, I was on “Switzerland” with Tom Switzer, who spent most of the show putting forth the argument, which he does not believe, that is now being made by a handful of supporters of the Iran war. They maintain that the ongoing economic blockade + the newly announced Bessent strategy will strangle the Iranian economy to the point where there is either regime change or abject surrender by the present regime.
Unsurprisingly, I made the argument that this approach is not going to work. There is no question the US and Israel have already inflicted enormous pain on Iran and crippled its economy, but getting Iran to surrender or producing a popular uprising is another matter. Indeed, there is hardly any evidence this approach is working, and it is clear that the widely trumpeted Bessent strategy never stood a chance of succeeding. It was dead on arrival. Moreover, there are many countries — China, Russia, and Turkey among them — who want to see Iran win the war and will help it survive. On top of that, Iran is facing an existential threat from the US and Israel, which incentivizes Iranians to fight to the death. Finally, there is no case in the historical record where one country defeated an adversary with economic pressure alone.
