Reprinted from John’s Substack:
On 15 January 2026, I was on “Judging Freedom” talking with the Judge about a variety of topics, but most importantly on the evolving situation in Iran. I laid out my thinking on 1) what the US and Israel were trying to do in Iran — upend the regime and wreck the country; 2) how we planned to do it — with the usual playbook; 3) why the strategy failed; 4) why the US has not bombed Iran when it appeared a few days ago that an attack was imminent; 5) whether Israel planned to attack Iran with the US or the US planned to attack alone; and 6) what the strategic consequences are of what is happening in Iran. On this last point, there is growing evidence that the Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia, are more and more coming to view the US-Israeli tag team — not Iran — as the greatest threat to stability in the Middle East. If true, wrecking Iran and turning it into another Syria would just further embolden Israel and the US to pursue reckless policies in the region, which would not be good for the Gulf states.
